Predicting Patrick Mahomes’ encore to an MVP season

A Subjective View

Fortunately, Mahomes has some major advantages over the players mentioned and those not.

The first is the fact that he is actually coming into his third year. He had a year to sit under a seasoned veteran and watch from the sidelines how to prepare and how to win. A year to sit and learn is undervalued. When the pressure isn’t on you personally, a different kind of learning takes place.

Having space to safely fail at the highest level is rare and also extremely beneficial, and Mahomes had this in spades. Michael Jordan used to talk about getting pulled for a short time in Game 6 of the NBA Finals against the Portland Trailblazers in ’92 when he was struggling. He said that watching his teammates execute had a calming effect on him. It slowed the game down and allowed him to execute more effectively as he re-entered the fray.

This is essentially what Mahomes had his first year. He was able to fail in practice and in the film room without it mattering, and I think it made him a better player.

The second advantage is Mahomes’ incredibly adaptive football mind. This is not a slight to players like RGIII and Prescott. It’s more an indication that Mahomes is on a completely different level than most players in the league.

I remember watching Mahomes’ first start against the Denver Broncos. He had choppy footwork. Footwork isn’t everything for a quarterback, but it’s definitely important. His early footwork was not great.

Nevertheless, in 2019 his footwork was incredible. That’s not to say he didn’t occasionally fall back into old habits, because he did. But the way he moved inside the pocket was, in a word, beautiful. It was very evident from the first game, where he made moving in and out of the pocket look easy.

Then there are the games against the New England Patriots from last season. In the first halves of both games, Mahomes struggled. He was noticeably amped, threw errant passes, and just seemed out of sorts. A lot of that came down to the way Belichick schemed against him—a mix of disguised coverages and manufactured pressure gave Mahomes and Reid headaches. He was a rookie, after all, and these were things he hadn’t seen much of yet.

In both situations, Mahomes’ responded successfully coming out of the locker room. In the first game, only his seventh as a starter, he came out on fire in the second half. He threw four touchdowns with no interceptions. While the team ultimately came up short, it really had nothing to do with Mahomes’ play.

The second game was virtually identical. After struggling in the first half, Mahomes allegedly told the team at halftime that they’d score thirty in the second half. They actually scored 31. Mahomes was individually spectacular, throwing three touchdowns and leading the team down the field for a tying field goal with only 32 seconds left. Some of the throws, including first one of that drive, were incredible.

These are just a couple examples, one on his fundamentals and one on his in-game execution, of how Mahomes adapts his game rapidly to become a better quarterback. This doesn’t even take into account the first game against the Broncos and the game against the Ravens. In both, he showed the maturity of a veteran in his response to difficult situations. I expect this to continue.

The third advantage is Andy Reid. It might not always seem like it, because coaches can have a great year here and there, but there are few coaches who are consistently great. Andy Reid is a consistently great coach. He wins wherever he goes with whoever is on his team.

That’s not to say he hasn’t had a rough year here or there. All coaches do. But, Andy is in the top ten in all-time wins for a reason. He knows how to get the most out of his players.

This is probably Mahomes’ biggest advantage. It would be easy for Mahomes to develop a big ego, but Andy is actually a good reminder of the idea that, even if you have a great season or even career, your legacy will ultimately be built on championships. The fact he has a fantastic coach who is still hungry for a championship should help Mahomes stay focused.

Now, is it possible that defensive coordinators identify innate, unchangeable aspects of Mahomes’ playing character? Yes, that’s absolutely a possibility.

But I’d say, with the way Mahomes has produced and these factors mentioned, this is a highly unlikely outcome.