Everything we know (and don’t) about Justin Houston and the Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs are clearly moving on from Justin Houston soon and it’s a sad ending to a great player’s tenure with the team.

Last week, reports emerged that the Kansas City Chiefs were shopping him via trade. On Monday, FanSided’s own Matt Verderame reported the Chiefs were releasing him. Either way, the one clear thing is that Chiefs Kingdom has likely rooted for Justin Houston in red and gold for the last time.

Given the seemingly conflicting reports online, we thought it would be important to parse out exactly what we know and what we don’t yet know when it comes to the veteran pass rusher. After all, this is the third straight offseason in which the Chiefs have said goodbye to one of their defenders after bidding adieu to Tamba Hali and Marcus Peters over the past two springs.

Here’s a rundown of how things stand at the present moment and the questions we still have.

WHAT WE KNOW

1. Houston is Gone

Waking up on Tuesday, it was difficult to tell what was real or not about the specifics of Justin Houston’s exit. But the word “exit” is the clearest part of all. No matter the source, there’s not a single NFL writer who seems to think Houston will be back with the Chiefs in 2019.

Verderame’s report states that the Chiefs will release Houston because there’s no trade market to be found. Other sources, including Brooke Pryor at the Star or Terez Paylor of Yahoo! Sports, say the Chiefs are still trying to find a suitor. At this point, nothing is certain but Houston will be wearing another uniform in 2019 no matter how he gets there.

2. Finances are Everything

While Houston might not rack up the sacks as he did in his initial contract year, the reality is that every metric shows the linebacker is still a very good pass rusher and well-rounded defender.

What this means is that the single biggest financial burden attached to the Chiefs roster has been lifted. Last year, Houston was the single biggest cap hit in the NFL of any non-quarterback. Say that slowly one more time. For a player who wasn’t even the best defender (or second best) on his own team, the financial strain was simply way too great.

The Chiefs are now free of his $21 million cap hit in 2019 and the additional $19 million next season. Yes, there’s dead money involved of just over $7 million, but the savings are still significant ($14M in 2019) for the Chiefs moving forward—enough to justify his release to those inside Arrowhead.

3. Houston Will Be Productive Elsewhere

Some fans will be down on Houston and point to simple sack totals or age as evidence for their preconceived notions. There’s likely no convincing any such person of what is true—namely, that Houston has always ranked among the NFL’s better pass rushers.

Houston’s overall statistics have been hurt by his own health concerns as well as a lack of other pass rushing options opposite him (especially as Tamba Hali faded and Dee Ford had yet to emerge). Still even last year, Pro Football Focus rated Houston at No. 80 overall in terms of their best overall players from the 2018 season. He not only had 9 sacks and 5 forced fumbles in 12 starts, but the deeper metrics show he’s still extremely effective at pushing the pocket and allowing others to enjoy big plays as well.

The reality is that Dee Ford, Justin Houston, and Chris Jones all enjoyed the attention given to the others. Without Houston, the Chiefs will need to invent other ways to get after the passer as efficiently as Houston could in order to keep other players like Jones from slipping in the stat column as well.

WHAT WE DON’T KNOW

1. How Things Will Happen

This should be obvious but right now we simply do not know for sure how things will happen. It does look like a release is imminent, but there’s a reason that reputable sources are also saying “hold up” on that matter. Trade or release? Nothing is official yet.

2. Why The Lack of Trade Options

For those of us on the outside, this is the biggest mystery of all. The financial side is easy to get for the Chiefs, but here’s the reality: several NFL teams have more salary cap space than they know what to do with. The Indianapolis Colts have over $106 million. The New York Jets have over $102 million. Both teams are desperate for pass rushers.

To a new team, Houston’s contract is a lot more palatable because the Chiefs are still on the hook to pay his remaining signing bonus ($4M in 2019) and his restructured bonus ($1.5M in 2019 and again in 2020). Basically, it’s a $15M deal for one year followed by a team option for $17M the following year without any hit if they release him.

Given how much pass rushers are at a premium, it’s odd that the Chiefs can’t find a team willing to pay a bit of a premium for a team-friendly commitment of a single year for a player who will likely be very motivated to show what he’s worth after being let go. Such a pass rusher could help a defense make the leap and serve as a bridge for developmental talent.

Last year at this time, the Miami Dolphins swallowed Robert Quinn‘s big contract of more than $11 million for a fourth-round pick (and a swap of sixth-round choices) and Quinn hasn’t sniffed a Pro Bowl in four years. The idea that someone won’t pay a few million more for Houston’s proven production is a mystery.

3. The Bigger Picture

Here’s the reality. We can give a thumbs up or down to the release or trade of Justin Houston, but isolating the move on its own merit makes no sense in the scheme of things. Houston’s exit from the team is only one lever pulled on a much bigger console than we can understand. Plans for this very offseason were discussed last year and the year before that (and maybe even the year before that with John Dorsey).

The Chiefs are radically remaking the defense under Steve Spagnuolo, a move craved by a great majority of the team’s fan base. Clearly, the front office has decided that doing so with a $20 million weight attached to Houston wasn’t palatable going forward. But there’s also a lot we don’t know and that includes future transactions, how current players will be utilized and more.

There’s a bigger picture at work and we’re simply not privy to it.