NFL picks and predictions, Week 5: Experts split on Chiefs vs. Jaguars

KANSAS CITY, MO - NOVEMBER 6: Quarterback Blake Bortles
KANSAS CITY, MO - NOVEMBER 6: Quarterback Blake Bortles /

NFL experts are split as to whether the NFL’s best offense or the NFL’s best defense will walk away with a win at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.

The Kansas City Chiefs’ matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars was already a marquee matchup coming into this week—the Chiefs sport one of the league’s top offenses and will face off against the Jags’ elite defense. Then Tyreek Hill talked some mild trash about Jalen Ramsey, and Ramsey in turn responded with some more pointed barbs. Mix that with some forecasted rainy weather this Sunday at Arrowhead, and this game has the makings of a thrilling, messy battle.

The expert picks across sports media this week are a reflection of that, as they are fairly evenly split, a definite change from the last two weeks that saw the Chiefs getting a lot of love from NFL prognosticators. The Denver Broncos’ defense is solid, but it’s not Jacksonville’s, and after seeing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense struggle through the first three quarters of their game last week on Monday Night Football, its clear that there is plenty of belief that the Jags can manage to slow down Mahomes and co. just enough to pull out a win.


Of ESPN’s ten experts, six are picking the Chiefs to stay undefeated. Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Dan Graziano, and Mina Kimes atand as the four voices picking elite defense to top elite offense.


Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson are the only two of CBS’ eight-expert panel picking the Chiefs to continue their hot start.


FiveThirtyEight projects the Chiefs at a 68% win probability, as their model continues to give KC the best shot in the league to win the Super Bowl at 16%.

This game will do a lot for the Chiefs’ credibility as a contender, at least on the offensive side of the ball. If they manage to not only win, but win impressively, it should vault them to at the very least a favorite alongside the New England Patriots to win the AFC, with next week’s Sunday Night Football showdown in Foxborough perhaps serving as an AFC Championship Game preview.

Next. Jags vs. Chiefs: Key Matchups for Sunday. dark

On the other hand, a loss featuring another less-than-stellar offensive performance will likely wipe a way a little of KC’s Next Big Thing sheen. Despite the Jags’ top-tier defense, this game is in Arrowhead so a loss would be a major disappointment. A win should be the expectation, and it should serve as another message that this Chiefs team is going to be a problem for everyone else in the league.