NFL picks, Week 3: Chiefs heavily favored against 49ers
By Jacob Harris
The latest NFL picks and predictions are in and the Chiefs are expected to go to 3-0 with a Sunday victory over San Francisco.
After a historic start to the season offensively, the Kansas City Chiefs roll into their home opener against the San Francisco 49ers as huge favorites. Vegas has the Bills as a 16.5 underdog, which at the time of this writing makes the Chiefs the biggest favorites of Week 3 outside of the Minnesota Vikings being favored to obliterate the hapless Buffalo Bills.
It’s not surprise, then, that the experts have the Chiefs going over the 49ers. It’s easy to see why. It’s the Chiefs home opener (and Patrick Mahomes’ first regular season home game), and the offense is coming off of one of the most explosive two-game starts to a season ever. The 49ers, while improved from last year, are still in their rebuilding process.
As cliche as it is to say, “You can’t sleep on any team in the NFL!” it’s a cliche because it’s true. The Chiefs still have a defense that’s struggling to be any better than the absolute worst. And, well, they’re still the Chiefs. Two games doesn’t erase a long history of hot starts followed by losing games they shouldn’t. So there’s just enough room for a 49ers upset that the Chiefs aren’t universal favorites.
Here’s a rundown of this week’s picks and predictions from NFL experts:
ESPN is a near clean sweep of Chiefs picks. Matt Bowen is the only voice predicting an upset, as the rest of ESPN’s panel seems to be aboard the Mahomes train at least for this week.
CBS has an even stronger favoring of the Chiefs, with everyone on the panel predicting a K.C. win. The general vibe across the board in sports media seems to be that this should be an easy win for K.C.
FiveThirtyEight calculates the Chiefs’ win probability at 77%. That makes them the 3rd biggest favorite behind the Vikings over the Bills at 78% and, intriguingly, the Eagles over the Colts at 83%. An interesting note; according to their own standings and rankings, the Chiefs are currently tied with the Eagles as the most likely team to win the Super Bowl at 11%. This, of course, changes every week and will continue to fluctuate, but it’s promising to see just how much value the Chiefs’ offense is bringing.
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As Chiefs fans, I’m sure that little bit of doubt is creeping. It happens every year. Just when the Chiefs take the national sports media’s attention by force they fall flat on their face against teams they should easily defeat. But even though it’s only been two games, everything feels different now. It might just be the to this point unknown high of our own team having a QB they drafted excelling, but it feels real at the moment. And beating the teams they should beat is the first baby step in proving the early explosion isn’t a fluke.