The Las Vegas oddsmakers have spoken and they believe the Kansas City Chiefs are going to fade considerably in 2018 with a new quarterback at the helm.
Andy Reid went to the playoffs in his first season with the Kansas City Chiefs just one season after the team had the worst record in football. He’s gone to the playoffs four times in the last five years, has won 16 of his last 18 games against the AFC West, and has coached the team to consecutive division titles for the first time in franchise history.
Yet somehow a well-planned quarterback change one year in the making is going to push the team down in a division with several question marks? That’s what Las Vegas oddsmakers believe.
The latest projections of wins are out from Oddshark and the Chiefs are coming in at 8.5 wins. For me, that’s an easy way to bet the over and win some money but it makes it clear that the Chiefs have as many doubters as ever despite their rock solid record over the last five years and primetime appearances aplenty.
Ten teams are projected to have more wins than the Chiefs, while another three teams are tied at 8.5: the Houston Texans, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs are projected into that tier, which is a group of promising teams with major questions. For the Texans, it is all about health. The Niners looked great in a late season run last year, but was it real? The Cowboys have a bright young offense but a suspect defense. Sounds familiar.
The L.A. Chargers are projected to have the highest win total in the AFC West, but the entire division is right there as middling teams. The Chargers come in at 9.5 wins projected and then immediately followed by the Chiefs. The Raiders are at 8 wins and the Broncos at 7.5. In other words, Vegas has put its foot out there to say the Chargers are their favorites, but they only have 2 wins separating the entire division from top to bottom.
This reinforces a couple of key points:
- Perhaps more than most years, games against divisional foes are going to be very, very important.
- No one knows what to make of the Chiefs changes, at quarterback or across the defense.
We’ve seen this year in and year out with the Chiefs under Andy Reid, an expectation that some other team in the division will be younger, sharper, sexier and they fall away each year. Once again the Chargers have been christened as the team to beat, but tell that to the eight straight losses they’ve experienced against the Chiefs.