If you go back over the history of the NFL you can find many examples of quarterbacks that played right away and became great. You can also find ones that sat for a year or two and then became great. There are also many quarterbacks that played right away and became busts and quarterbacks that sat for a year or two and still became busts. I get that there is no one perfect way to do things, so I am not going to sit here and say that sitting a guy for a year is always 100% the right thing to do. I am however, going to tell you specifically why I think its right for Patrick Mahomes.
The playbook factor
When Mahomes was drafted, the general consensus was that he would need a year (at least) to master an NFL offense and improve his mechanics. This is where I am obligated to point out that no quarterback has ever come out of the “Air Raid” college offense and become a successful NFL starter. None. So obviously there is a learning curve there. Now, Mahomes is off to a great start. He doesn’t look lost out there and, by all reports, he’s a bright guy and has studied hard to try and get Andy Reid’s notoriously large playbook down.
Does he have enough of it down that Reid could come up with a game plan for him if he was the starter? Sure. I mean if the Broncos can figure a way to fake it through a season with Tim Tebow, then of course Andy Reid could come up with something for a guy with Mahomes gifts. That doesn’t mean that Mahomes has the offense mastered. Alex Smith knows that playbook inside and out to the point where he’s another coach on the field. He can line everyone else up and make adjustments based on what the defense is doing. That is obviously where we all want Mahomes to get.
The defensive factor
Despite his preseason success, Mahomes has still never faced a real NFL defense. Teams keep their schemes pretty vanilla in the preseason, both to avoid giving their regular season opponents too much on film and to see how players perform based on their talents alone, not something created by a scheme mismatch. Could Mahomes learn about these defensive schemes in live action? Sure, but he can also develop an understanding of them sitting in the film room and seeing what the defense was doing and how Reid/Smith attacked it.
The mechanics factor
Then there is the personal development of Mahomes mechanics. Has his footwork looked better than his college tape? Sure, but let’s be honest part of Mahomes appeal is his improvisations so I don’t know that most fans are too worried about this. Is Mahomes naturally talented enough to have some success even if his footwork/mechanics aren’t perfect? Sure, I think so. The thing is, I don’t just want Mahomes to have “some success” I want him to become the best quarterback in the history of the Chiefs franchise and based on what we’ve seen early on from him I truly believe his ceiling as a player is that high. The question is: will he reach it or not?
My fear isn’t that Patrick Mahomes would struggle SO much as a rookie starter that it would ruin his development. I’m not worried about him taking David Carr type abuse that makes him so shell shocked that he never recovers. What actually would scare me the most is that Mahomes has success as a rookie by using his natural gifts as a crutch. We’ve seen rookies like Robert Griffen III and Cam Newton come out and use their natural gifts to have impressive rookie years. The problem is that once players get in the habit of relying strictly on physical gifts (especially if they have success doing it), it becomes hard to get them to break that habit.
When the Redskins asked RG3 to start playing a more traditional style, he failed so hard he went from the most exciting young player in the NFL to out of the league in just a few short years. Cam Newton, while still a good NFL quarterback, has never really developed. He hasn’t surpassed the 4,000 yard passing mark since his rookie season and in four of the five seasons since his rookie year he has failed to complete 60% of his passes (including a career worst 52.9% last year). I don’t want that to be Mahomes.
I think it’s plain to see that Mahomes has the natural talent to be a star. His ceiling appears to be as high as any young quarterback in the NFL. Let’s be patient with him and the team as they do whatever they feel is needed to help him reach that ceiling. They don’t need to rush him. Let him master the offense. Let him learn about NFL defensive schemes. I get that he could get game experience this season, but if that means limiting the playbook and him relying on improvising on his natural talent over actual play execution I don’t think that helps him long term.
I fully expect Patrick Mahomes to be the starting quarterback in 2018. When that day comes, I want him to have a good grasp of Andy Reid’s full playbook and I want him to have a full year of that coaching staff refining his mechanics so that he doesn’t just revert back to his old habits as soon as a play breaks down. This isn’t a question of could Mahomes start this season, I think he could. It’s a question of if he should start this season, and I am a firm no when it comes to that question.
Patrick Mahomes is the shiny new toy that all of us Chiefs fans have been asking for as long as we can remember. We finally got that toy and now the Chiefs are asking us to put it up on the shelf for a year before we play with it. That’s a really hard thing to do, especially in today’s instant gratification society. I know it’s hard, but I 100% believe it is both the right thing to do and what the Chiefs are planning to do. So while it may be difficult, I would advise the Chiefs Kingdom to be patient. Patrick Mahomes’time will come and I truly believe that when it does it will be worth waiting for. In the meantime, the best thing for the Chiefs in 2017 and for Patrick Mahomes development will be for him to sit behind Alex Smith this season.
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So what do you think Chiefs fans? Do you agree that despite all the excitement the best thing for this season and the future is for Mahomes to sit this season? Or are you convinced that the future is now? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.
As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!