What should we expect from Alex Smith this season?
I fully expect Alex Smith to have a career year in 2017. I’m not saying he will be a top ten quarterback in the NFL, but I do think he will have one of his best seasons. Throughout his time with the Chiefs, Smith has been at his best when he had nothing to lose. When Jamaal Charles went down at the beginning of the Colts playoff game after the 2013 season Smith responded by having one of the biggest games of his career. Last year in week one, when the Chiefs fell behind 21-3 at halftime, Smith was forced to air things out in the second half and the Chiefs engineered the biggest comeback in franchise history.
History has shown that when Alex Smith is comfortable, he is a “play it safe” quarterback. That has allowed the Chiefs to win a lot of games over the past four seasons but eventually the lack of yards/touchdowns has caught up to them. Now with an incredibly talented young quarterback behind him he will inevitably feel less comfortable about his future as a starting NFL quarterback. I believe that will push him to go outside his comfort zone more often. If nothing else, think about the psychological effect of watching the “heir apparent” air out deep balls in practice every day. Any athlete with enough drive to be a starter in the NFL is going to feel the competition to prove they can be effective down the field too.
The early reports out of training camp support this theory. Here are a few blurbs from Terez Paylor’s camp report on the quarterbacks from Saturday:
"“He’s doing awesome right now, too,” Nagy said of Smith. “We were just saying today that this is the most on-point that we’ve seen him in a long time. He’s on fire right now.” “He knows this offense inside and out, so that part’s going to be easier,” Nagy said. “But right now, the accuracy that he’s throwing with is special.” “He’s coming out here very aggressive, but he’s playing fast and he’s playing real smart,” Nagy said of Smith."
I’m excited about Patrick Mahomes future in Kansas City, as excited as I’ve been about any player in a long time. But don’t write off Alex Smith just yet. He may not be the future at the position, but he is still the present. When I see national writers predicting 3 or 4 starts this season for Mahomes I think they may be counting out Smith (and the Chiefs) a little too soon. Just to put myself out there I’m going to go ahead and predict the following line for Smith this season:
- 68% completion rate
- 7.5 yards/completion
- 3,600 yards
- 24 TDs, 10 INTs
Those would all be highs for Smith since he came to Kansas City.
So what do you think Chiefs fans? Am I crazy for expecting a career year out of Alex Smith? Do you foresee another year like last season or do you think the arrival of Patrick Mahomes will push Smith a little out of his comfort zone (in a good way)? What are your expectations for Alex Smith in 2017? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.
As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!