Kansas City Chiefs Analysis: Life without Jeremy Maclin

If the Chiefs averaged less yards per game and less third down conversions without their number one receiver you would assume that was because the passing game suffered. Strangely enough, that is not what the numbers show. Here are the passing yards per game, average yards per attempt per game, and Alex Smith’s completion percentage in the eleven games with Maclin:

238.2 passing yards, 7.4 yards per attempt, 66.4% completions

Here are those same numbers in the four games that Smith didn’t have Maclin:

232.2 passing yards, 7.2 yards per attempt, 69.6% completions

The Chiefs averaged just a few less yards passing per game and had a minor drop in yards per attempt without Maclin but actually saw an increase in completion percentage without him. These numbers simply don’t support a drop in third down percentage by 10%. My next thought was perhaps that not having Maclin allowed defenses to focus on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Maybe they weren’t as productive without Maclin drawing the attention of the defense. So I looked into their numbers both with and without Maclin in the lineup. The results were some of the most surprising of any I found while working on this post.

In games where Alex Smith was the quarterback and Jeremy Maclin played these were the average receptions and yards per game.

Jeremy Maclin: 3.9 receptions, 47.4 yards
Travis Kelce: 4.7 receptions, 60.3 yards
Tyreek Hill: 2.6 receptions, 24.o yards
Total: 11.2 receptions, 131.7 yards

In games where Alex Smith was the quarterback but Jeremy Maclin did not play these were the average receptions and yards per game for Kelce and Hill:

Travis Kelce: 6.5 receptions, 95.o yards
Tyreek Hill: 7.0 receptions, 61.8 yards
Total: 13.5 receptions, 156.8 yards

So in games without Jeremy Maclin the combo of Kelce and Hill produced MORE than the trio of Maclin, Kelce, and Hill did in games where Maclin played. I found that to be both surprising and encouraging for those two going into next season. I would also point out that if Kelce and Hill out gained the production of Kelce/Hill/Maclin and yet KC averaged a few yards LESS passing per game it points out that guys like Chris Conley and Albert Wilson did NOT step up when Maclin was out last season. Perhaps 2017 will be different but the numbers from 2016 aren’t encouraging for those two.

So if the overall passing numbers were similar, the defenses faced were similar, and Kelce and Hill stepped up with Maclin out then why did the offense struggle on 3rd down so much?

I think I have the answer for you.