Kansas City Chiefs Analysis: Life without Jeremy Maclin

In the 11 games where the Chiefs had Smith and Maclin they averaged the following:

23.6 points, 345.5 yards, 5.6 yards per play, 41% 3rd down conversions

In the four games where Smith did not have Maclin they averaged the following:

24.0 points, 315.3 yards, 5.6 yards per play, 31% 3rd down conversions

So the points per game and yards per play were basically the same with and without Jeremy Maclin this past season. However, there is definitely a drop off in yards per game there and most alarming is the huge difference in 3rd down conversion rate. To put that difference into perspective, 41% was just outside the top ten in 3rd down conversions last season while 31% would have been dead last in the entire NFL. That should have triggered a HUGE red flag going into next season. Does that mean we should expect the Chiefs to be awful on 3rd down next season with Maclin gone? Let’s dig a little deeper to see what the numbers say.

First off, was the caliber of defenses faced an issue? To figure that out I looked at the average numbers given up by the defenses that KC faced both with and without Maclin. This is what the defenses that K.C. faced when they had Smith and Maclin averaged:

23.5 points allowed, 347.5 yards allowed, 5.5 yards per play allowed, 39.5% 3rd downs allowed

This is what the defenses that KC faced without Maclin averaged:

23.1 points allowed, 353.8 yards allowed, 5.4 yards per play allowed, 37.5% 3rd downs allowed

So the defenses that the Chiefs. faced without Jeremy Maclin were a tiny bit better than the ones they faced with him. The defenses they faced without Maclin gave up a few more yards per game but were slightly better in the other three categories. However, I don’t think we can fairly say that the defenses they faced were the reason for the huge drop in 3rd down conversions. Yes, the defenses they faced allowed 2% less conversion over the course of the season but that doesn’t equate to the 10% drop that the Chiefs had.

So does that mean the passing game just wasn’t as good without Maclin?