The rub on the release of Jeremy Maclin

The Tyreek Hill displacement theory

Despite falling to the fifth round in the NFL Draft, rookie phenom Tyreek Hill amassed over 1,800 all-purpose yards and 12 total touchdowns in 2016. He was most productive from the wide receiver position posting 593 yards and six touchdowns as a pass catcher in Andy Reid’s West Coast offense. Given his success, it’s reasonable to expect an increased role for Hill in the 2017 season. He’s certainly capable of a larger workload and despite concerns about his stature (he’s actually the same size as Antonio Brown at 5’10 and 185 pounds), he could eventually become a No. 1 receiver in this offense.

Maclin logged starts on two of Hill’s three biggest receiving days in 2016. Is that pure coincidence or a by-product of defenses having to account for No. 19’s ability to take the top off?

The trouble with this idea is the fact that it fails to make a connection with Maclin’s contribution to Hill’s materialization in the offense. Maclin logged starts on two of Hill’s three biggest receiving days in 2016. Is that pure coincidence or a by-product of defenses having to account for No. 19’s ability to take the top off? Without him to take pressure off of Hill, he could draw the attention of multiple defenders this year.

It should also be noted that Maclin’s veteran presence, leadership and mentoring of his younger counterparts was an invaluable piece of the puzzle. Conley and Wilson are now the team’s eldest receivers at just 24 years old. With a receiver like Hill, who’s still separating himself from a sordid past, a tenured, mature receiver may prove the best way to keep him on track. The loss to the Kansas City locker room, alone, is significant and cannot be understated.

Maclin became a low offensive priority

This is perhaps the strangest talking point of all. It’s been said that Maclin simply became an afterthought to the Chiefs passing game in 2016; however, this narrative is curiously silent about the root cause of Maclin’s decline in productivity. He made just 12 starts last year due to a nagging groin injury that sidelined him for four games between the 10th and 13th weeks of the NFL season. His 44 yards-per-reception average applied to the four games he missed would’ve given Maclin 58 receptions and 708 receiving yards. That certainly isn’t anything to write home about, but it would’ve made him the most productive receiver in the offense.

Let me take that a step further.

Here are the number of targets for each of the Chiefs top four receivers in 2016:

• Travis Kelce — 117
• Tyreek Hill — 83
• Jeremy Maclin — 76
• Chris Conley — 69

It certainly looks like Maclin became the third option in Kansas City’s offense, but look closer at the numbers. Maclin played in 12 games in 2016. Hill played in 16 games last season. On average, Maclin was targeted more often than Hill (6.3 times per game compared to 5.1 times per game for the rookie). Conley’s numbers also seem to suggest he could easily supplant Maclin in this offense, but again on closer inspection, he did post a similar stat line, but it required 186 more offensive snaps. The pure numbers, sans context, don’t paint an accurate picture of Maclin’s significance to Kansas City’s offense. Consider this: A healthy Maclin in 2015 was the most targeted pass-catcher on the team (including one Travis Kelce). Coincidentally, the Chiefs were a better offensive group in Maclin’s first year with the team (finishing Top 10 in the points for category).