Did the Chiefs pay too much to trade up for Patrick Mahomes?

Why is everyone condemning this move?

Well, let’s first look at the draft value chart to see just how much we spent to go up and get our guy. There are multiple versions of this, so if you go and look for yourself, the numbers may vary a bit. Pro Football Focus’s chart has the tenth overall pick in the draft sitting at 1,300 points, while our first round pick for 2017 was only 680 points, so let’s assume that we’ll finish 27th again next season and double that number. That brings us to a total of 1,360 points which is already exceeding what we needed, but we threw some icing on this cake and added another 136 points with our third round pick (91 overall) bringing the total to 1,496 points. These picks together were worth just a bit more than the eighth overall pick in the 2017 draft which valued at 1,400 points.

That is a lot of draft capital, and I know some of you are probably thinking it was too much for a quarterback who cannot even set his feet to throw just about every time the ball leaves his cannon of an arm.

Also, historically, trading up for a quarterback is not something that works out very well; if we look at the recent history of teams doing this we see that teams traded up into the first round to grab the following quarterbacks: Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, RG3, Blaine Gabbert, Tim Tebow, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Brady Quinn and Jay Cutler.

Looking at this list may make you want to throw up because the success rate here is terrible, as only one of these QBs has been able to lead a team to a Super Bowl win. Granted, two of those players were rookies, so the book is still out on them, which makes this a bit better, but not by much. With history on their side, what makes the Chiefs’ situation different from any of those teams?

First, we have Andy Reid, who the league has called a quarterback whisperer for years. He is a coach who has proven to have the ability to get production out of very mediocre quarterbacks. His shaping of quarterbacks like Donavan McNabb and Brett Favre, helping them during their Hall of Fame careers, makes me optimistic that we can get the most out of Mahomes starting next season.

Second, how many teams are in a position like the Chiefs currently are? I touched on the quarterback position, but in general, the roster does not have many overall holes. We have an offensive line that is young and starting to gel together, and they are all locked up for the next couple seasons. Then, you can add in a defense which rated as having a top three secondary last season by PFF and only allowed the sixth-most points per game in the NFL after facing the Falcons, Saints, Raiders and Steelers twice, the second time around not even allowing a single touchdown against the Steelers. They did all of this with a substantially decreased pass rush, since they were missing Justin Houston for most of the year, had a declining Tamba Hali, and Dee Ford, who got out to a hot start last season but did not record a sack after week nine.

After considering just that right there, it raises the question if most of our draft picks are locks to make the roster because of the competition at those positions, namely in the secondary and at the wide receiver position. This roster is full of talent, and when most teams are trading up to get a quarterback, they are in desperate need of one and are looking for a generational talent like Andrew Luck, which is something that the Chiefs do not have to worry about for at least one more season.