Should you panic over Jeremy Maclin’s release from the Kansas City Chiefs?

So we just established that Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill should account for 165 receptions if they stay healthy. Last season the Chiefs had a total of 365 receptions. HOWEVER, we can all agree they didn’t run the ball enough. That was the second highest total of receptions in Andy Reid’s entire head coaching career. Hopefully, with the addition of Kareem Hunt, the running game will get a little bit of a boost. In Andy Reid’s entire head coaching career his average completions per season is 332. So let’s use that as our target number.

Another staple of an Andy Reid offense is throwing the ball to the running backs. In his four years in Kansas City, Reid’s offense has averaged 75 receptions per season by running backs (including fullbacks). With Alex Smith as the quarterback (who likes to check down) and the addition of Hunt who is a great receiver out of the backfield, I don’t see that number going down. Just for argument’s sake let’s use a nice even 70 reception total for running backs in 2017. You add that number to the 165 for Kelce and Hill and you get 235. We just established that 332 was our target, to make the math easy let’s aim for 335 so now we need to come up with 100 more receptions.

Could Jeremy Maclin have been key to filling out those 100 remaining receptions? Sure, but take a look at these totals and tell me if they seem unreasonable.

• Chris Conley – 50 receptions (44 in 2016)
• Albert Wilson – 20 receptions (31 in 2016)
• Gavin Escobar – 20 receptions (Demetrius Harris had 17 in 2016)
• Demarcus Robinson – 10 receptions (zero in 2016)

That’s it. We’re out of receptions already. No third tight end catching any passes. No receptions for rookie wideout Jehu Chesson. No major jump in receptions for Conley despite Maclin’s absence. I actually decreased Albert Wilson’s production. Gavin Escobar didn’t have a noticeable jump over what Harris did last season and Demarcus Robinson barely made an impact in his second season and we STILL easily matched the desired production the Chiefs need simply by bumping Tyreek Hill’s receptions up to five catches per game and getting back to running the ball a little more.

Can anyone sit there and honestly argue that you see a giant gaping hole left by the loss of Jeremy Maclin in those numbers? Can you understand why the Chiefs may have looked at these numbers and gone “Wait a minute, if we’re going to get Tyreek more involved and get back to running the ball more effectively, we don’t really need to pay someone 12.4 million dollars to be a limited contributor.”

I also think that the long-term picture with Patrick Mahomes could have been part of the equation as well. Jeremy Maclin was likely not going to be a key part of this team once Mahomes takes over as the quarterback in a year or two. However, other guys that may get more reps now that he is gone like Hill, Conley, Robinson, and Chesson could be. If the Chiefs believe in those players this move now frees up more chances for them to develop their game before Mahomes takes over.

Let’s wrap this up.