Alex Smith’s trade value and the 2018 quarterback market

“Is Patrick Mahomes ready?”

One year from now, we will be tired of the conversation. Barring injury or a complete about-face from the entire cadre of Chiefs leadership, Mahomes will have spent the entire 2017 regular season on the bench learning from anyone and everyone around him. He will have flashed enough preseason promise to make everyone go crazy before sitting and saying all the right things for several months. Then at some point next offseason, Andy Reid, John Dorsey and Clark Hunt will all emerge in a small men’s ensemble singing the praises of one man.

“We want to thank Alex Smith for being the consummate professional…”
“I just can’t imagine a better leader or finer person than Alex Smith…”
“He’s a winner. That’s all I can say. The guy is an absolute winner…”

Then, Dorsey will officially wave goodbye to the Chiefs starting quarterback for the previous five seasons.

Four drafts after trading two second round picks for Smith, Dorsey grabbed his replacement. Fortunately, Smith’s resume from the last five years will look so good that Dorsey might even recoup everything he ever paid for Smith in the first place. Hell, he might even recoup what he paid for Mahomes, but we’ll look at that in just a minute. First, it’s important to ask a question: why is no one talking about this?

Everyone focused on the succession from Smith to Mahomes gets excited largely about two aspects of this. First, Alex Smith’s contract can come off of the books in 2018. One year from now, Smith will be headed for the biggest cap hit of his career at $20.6 million. That’s over $4 million more than Mahomes will make during the entire life of his rookie deal. The Chiefs can get rid of Smith with a mere $3.6 million of dead cap space (that amount is the same whether designated pre- or post-June 1 cut or if traded). That’s a ton of extra space to lock up other players or sign a free agent.

Secondly, the offensive ceiling becomes significantly higher with Mahomes under center. The mistakes will be there, but so will the deep ball. Mahomes is also likely to run the ball more than the current model of Alex Smith. Given the presence of deep threats like Tyreek Hill and Chris Conley, it’s hard not to love the idea of the Chiefs offense opening up more than ever in Reid’s tenure.

That said, there’s a third aspect to this that should be included as a trio. Along with the financial gain (certain) and the offensive prosperity (hopeful) comes the reality that several other teams would love to have what the Chiefs currently enjoy at starting quarterback. Smith will bring a decent bounty, and the question is simply about how much.