While other people are telling you that this is a bad draft class to find a quarterback, I’m going to argue the exact opposite for the Chiefs. I believe this is the perfect year for the Chiefs to take a shot. First off, the Chiefs have an open roster spot at the number two quarterback position now that Nick Foles has left town. The Chiefs lack the salary cap space to fill that spot with a proven veteran so it looks like that spot is going to a rookie one way or another.
Now Kansas City could take the same approach they have thus far under John Dorsey and take a flyer on a mid-round guy like they did with Aaron Murray and Kevin Hogan, but if Alex Smith were to go down, they would really be in bad shape. The Chiefs still have Tyler Bray under contract, but he has zero regular season experience and it seems hard to fathom that the Chiefs would trust a loaded playoff caliber roster to a mid-round draft pick.
If something were to happen to Alex this season, K.C. would want a guy that they both believe has the natural talent to excel in the NFL and a guy that has a future with the team where the game experience he would gain would at least aid his long term development. You get a guy like that in the early rounds of the draft. So K.C. has an open spot for a quarterback on their roster that needs to be filled by a talented prospect.
Second, the Chiefs are in the perfect window to draft Alex Smith’s replacement. Smith’s contract essentially guarantees that he’ll be the starter this coming season because of how much of his money is still guaranteed. However, in 2018 while his cap number jumps up to $20.6 million only $3.6 million of that is guaranteed. So if the Chiefs could draft his replacement and get him familiar enough with Andy Reid’s system in order to start in 2018 the Chiefs could save a whopping $17 million by parting ways with Smith. If the Chiefs are forced to keep Smith in 2018, it will make re-signing other players or bringing in free agents to fill potential holes much more difficult.
Plus, John Dorsey has a history of spending first round picks on guys that would fill potential upcoming holes in the roster. He picked Eric Fisher when Branden Albert’s deal was about up. He picked Dee Ford when Justin Houston’s deal was about up. He picked Marcus Peters when Sean Smith’s contract was about up. He picked Chris Jones when Dontari Poe’s contract was about up (not the exact same position, but still defensive line). John Dorsey has proven to like insurance plans when key players’ futures with the team are in question. No other contract looms larger for Kansas City going forward than Smith’s.
So basically, the Chiefs roster is currently in need of a talented draft pick at quarterback from a personnel standpoint and the roster is in need of a quarterback on a rookie deal that can replace Smith in 2018 from a salary cap standpoint. If that wasn’t enough justification for you, how about this? While some see the lack of a quarterback that is worthy of going first overall in this draft as a bad thing, it also means that Kansas City can move up to get the guy they like best without having to pay as steep of price as they would in other drafts. We’ll talk more about the price for the Chiefs to move up in a minute, but the bottom line is that this year is the perfect time for the Chiefs to target and draft their quarterback of the future.
The Chiefs have failed to invest in their future at this position for far too long.