Let’s take a peek at the rest of free agency… and the draft… and what it might look like. Not that free agency is over for the Chiefs by any means but most of the main pieces appear to be in place.
First, let’s compare the on-hand next-up starters and/or possible draft picks at the positions that have changed most because of free agency, namely: the cornerback and the guard positions.
The essential question:
Do you have more faith in Phillip Gaines replacing Sean Smith… or do you trust the move along the offensive line of Zach Fulton/Laurent Duvernay-Tardif stepping in for Ben Grubbs/Jeff Allen.
I’d go with the guards.
It’s not that I believe that those two linemen are so superior at their craft than Gaines will be this year at his, it has more to do with replaceability and matching a +84.8 ranking of Sean Smith by ProFootbalFocus in 2015. That’s a lot to expect of Phillip Gaines.
Although last year the draft provided John Dorsey both a starter at cornerback and an offensive lineman on the interior, this year, based upon the available talent, and the positions from where the Chiefs are selecting at #28 and #59 early in the draft (with no 3rd round pick), it looks like it will be a more difficult task drafting another immediate starter in the defensive backfield, than a starter for one of the guard positions.
After all, we can project that the best guard in this draft, 6-foot4, 309 lbs. Cody Whitehair from Kansas State, will be available in this draft at #28 (and perhaps as late as #40) whereas even if the Chiefs were able to jump up ten or so draft positions to snag 6-foot-0, 200 lbs. Ohio State CB Eli Apple, I’m unsure he’d be ready to be an effective NFL starter until at least mid-season, much less a solid replacement for Sean Smith at all.
I’m not saying we know that Cody Whitehair is plug-and-play ready on day one, but it looks like there are few prospect choices (I didn’t say none, I said few) as far as suitable corners — who can step in for Sean Smith — in the draft is concerned.*
*See Mackensie Alexander at the end of this piece.
So, was it a mistake to not go ahead and plan to match Sean Smith’s asking price of $10M for four years? Unless the Chiefs can procure a suitable veteran to step in the answer may become clear soon enough.
In a piece for NFL.com Gil Brandt lists 10 players who will be missed most by their former teams and Sean Smith comes in at #5. What he says about how the Chiefs will miss him also affects Marcus Peters’ play in 2016. Brandt states,
"“I think one of the reasons Defensive Rookie of the Year Marcus Peters — who tied for the league lead with eight picks and led the NFL in passes defensed with 34 — had as many defensive opportunities as he did is that people stayed away from Smith. I don’t think the Chiefs currently have anyone on their roster who can replicate Smith’s impact, and I think we might see Peters’ stats dip a bit in 2016, just because opponents will stay away from him and target whoever’s playing in Smith’s place.”"
I agree with Brandt and at this point, third year corner Phillip Gaines is not going to be able to provide what Smith has. If anything, Gaines will now become “The Target” opposing quarterbacks go after like they did Peters last year, while Peters sees less action come his way.
Next: Cornerbacks Still Available in Free Agency