Will 2017 cap issues hinder Chiefs this offseason?

As the countdown towards the official start of the 2016 year ticks on, Chiefs fans across the country eagerly await to see what players this organization adds through free agency and through the draft. Fans and pundits alike have been busy predicting who’s coming and who’s going from Arrowhead. There is one issue that Chiefs fans, to a degree, needs to keep in mind as the off season moves forward. The Chiefs have salary cap issues in 2017, serious salary cap issues.

The Chiefs trail only the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills in terms of money committed to the 2017 cap. This is vitally important information to know and understand for the free agency this offseason.

Over the past couple offseasons, the Chiefs have signed big money deals to guys such as Justin Houston, Alex Smith, Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce. Those contract all seem to balloon in 2017. Eric Fisher, and we’ll know exactly for sure his status this off season, is likely to count more then 11 million dollars against the cap in 2017.

Obviously, numbers can be managed and players can be moved. Ben Grubbs and Jamal Charles are both not likely to return in 2017. The Chiefs can get out from Alex Smith’s contract and save roughly 16 million dollars over the course of the 2017 and 2018 seasons. However, as is obvious, these are talented football players the Chiefs would be releasing talented football players.

In summation, as there always is, if a player is not retained or a free agent is not pursued, sometimes it’s not as simple as looking at this years salary cap, or free agency class, and assuming. While the Chiefs have a fair amount of money to spend this offseason, so does basically every other team not known as the Dolphins or Saints.

Observations and Notes:

• Tamba Hali has become a free agent and leaves $4 million in 2016 dead cap space. To this point, I have heard next to nothing about a new deal for Hali. When he hits the open market, expect other teams to be very interested in him in a pure pass-rushing/specialist role, and could command a deal similar to what DeMarcus Ware signed with Denver two seasons ago, which was three years and $30 million.
• Of all the free agents mentioned, the  player I feel most confident about being retained is Derrick Johnson. While I have no inside information, sense is movement is solid from both sides.
• Eric Berry is going to  be overpaid by the Chiefs, and it will be significant. As has been mentioned, Berry’s true value is close to $8 to $8.5 per season on a new deal. With being franchised by the Chiefs, he’ll likely command and receive a number exceeding $10 million. While I like Eric Berry, you don’t win championships by overpaying players on non-premium positions.
• Heard it here first, the Chiefs would be better of retaining Jaye Howard and allowing Dontari Poe to either walk after the 2016 season or finding a trade partner. Howard, at his price, would cost just under 10 million per. Dontari Poe will be looking for a deal similar to the one Bills DT Marcell Dareus signed a few years ago, six years and close to $100 million. He may not reach that number exactly, but Poe is highly likely to strike a deal north of 14 million per.  Staggering numbers.

Lets see how the offseason plays out.