Early Kansas City Chiefs Draft Outlook

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Nov 29, 2014; Tallahassee, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Jameis Winston (5) signals directions to his teammates during the first half of the game against the Florida Gators at Doak Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

There are two scenarios I can see right now completely jacking up the basic outline of where we think the draft may be heading. The first is Jameis Winston.

Winston is probably the most physically gifted quarterback in the draft, maybe the most physically gifted quarterback prospect in the draft since Andrew Luck. Before you get started, no, I don’t think he is or will be as good or better than Luck. I do think that at this stage he is the most talented quarterback to be available to NFL teams since Luck was taken by the Colts. Meaning, I think Winston is more physical talent  – size, arm strength, athleticism, etc. – than Robert Griffin, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Geno Smith, E.J Manuel, etc.

The obvious problem with Winston is his brain. His massive off-field red flags will lead teams completely leave him off the board, and it isn’t out of the question Winston will fall out of the top 10 in the draft. If Johnny Manziel can fall in the draft because of partying then how far could Winston fall for his issues?

Point is, it’s not out of the realm of possibility Kansas City is sitting at 18 and Winston is still on the board. Do the Chiefs pull the trigger?

Alex Smith is going to be the starting quarterback in 2015 unless something goes terribly wrong with his spleen. Yes, his 2016 salary is guaranteed for 2016 but he’ll be a tradable asset by then if someone like Winston were ready to start. In no way are the Chiefs married to Smith in terms of his contract.

Kansas City almost seems like too good of a fit for Winston. He’s going to need a year or two to adapt to an NFL system and adjust to life as a professional, and who better to learn from than Andy Reid (the quarterback guru) and Smith, who his highly regarded as one of themes prepared quarterbacks in the NFL. Sit for a year or two behind Smith, learn how to handle life on and off the field in a city where media attention won’t be so bright, and Kansas City may have a potential franchise quarterback when 2016/2017 rolls around.

That’s a scenario that’s tough to pass up if you’re Dorsey and Reid.

And this scenario extends to the second round, too, though not with Winston. If the right quarterback is there then the Chiefs have to seriously consider pulling the trigger. Take advantage of having Smith there as a mentor and providing quarterback play good enough to win games while you develop a future longterm quarterback. Now is the best time to take that shot.

The other scenario that could mess things up is if Kansas City wants to make a big play up or down the board. Assuming the Chiefs land three or four compensation picks, Dorsey will have some pieces to play with if he wants to move up some spots to land a prospect. He could also see those extra picks as a way to move out of the first round entirely and build up some picks for next year.

For instance, what if Winston or Shane Ray, or Amari Cooper fall out of the top 10? What if Trae Waynes, probably the best corner in the draft, is there but the Chiefs have to move up to get him?

Or what if Winston falls to the Chiefs and the Cowboys want to trade up for the pick? The Chiefs may then find themselves drafting in a spot where the offensive linemen that makes sense for them are gone and the best players on the board are tight end Devin Funchess, corners Alex Carter and Ifo Ekpre-Olomeu, and running back Melvin Gordon. What do they do then?

There’s lots of scenarios for us to ponder. We’ve got four months to get it all sorted out.