Kansas City Chiefs: Does A Win Restore Hope For 2014?
The Kansas City Chiefs finally got the zero out of their win column on Sunday as they defeated the Miami Dolphins by a final score of 34-15. First and foremost, after a disaster of a season opener and a near miss against the Broncos, simply getting a win is a huge relief. Falling to 0-3 on the season would have been devastating on a number of levels. While the numbers on making the playoffs at 0-2 aren’t good, the numbers at 0-3 are just plain awful. Plus, the Chiefs fan base was beginning to get a little “tense”.
Was last year a fluke?
Does John Dorsey know how to build a roster?
Was signing Alex Smith a mistake?
While a win certainly doesn’t make those questions completely disappear, it does at least change the tone of the conversation. I don’t know what will happen this season (and neither do you, if you’re being honest), but at least for the next week the sky is no longer falling.
So the question now is how should this win effect your expectations for this season?
Are the Chiefs still a hopelessly flawed team that is only good enough to pick off a few teams here and there or are the improvements of the past two weeks a sign that they are coming around and can still compete for a playoff spot?
Obviously, there’s no way to know the answer to that question until the games actually play out, but the results on Sunday do paint a much brighter picture for the Kansas City Chiefs than the one we all were looking at a couple of weeks ago. Not only did the Chiefs get a win on Sunday, but their opponents in the next two weeks both looked very beatable. The San Francisco 49ers dropped their second straight game and while the New England Patriots won against the Oakland Raiders, they didn’t look very good in the process.
After the Chiefs nightmare opener, I wrote that the Chiefs were in danger of starting the season 0-6. While the possibility remains that KC could end that same stretch 1-5, with the Patriots and 49ers struggling, suddenly 3-3 also seems like a possibility. Alex Smith has looked better (at times). Andy Reid’s play calling was the best it’s been this season by a long shot on Sunday and the defense has been getting better by the week as well.
Here are Alex Smith’s completion percentages by game:
vs. Ten: 54.3%
@ Den: 61.9%
@ Mia: 76.0%
Here are Smith’s yards per attempt numbers by game:
vs. Ten: 5.77 YPA
@ Den: 6.07 YPA
@ Mia: 7.44 YPA
Now, Smith did have a couple of horrible plays that directly contributed to the Dolphins scoring nine of their fifteen points so there is still room for more improvement. However, the rushing attack is also trending upward. Here are the Chiefs running back’s rushing numbers by game:
vs. Ten: 11 carries for 31 yards (2.82 YPC)
@ Den: 26 carries for 91 yards (3.5 YPC)
@ Mia: 38 carries for 157 yards (4.13 YPC)
Perhaps the best news of all is that the Chiefs points per game have gone up from 10 to 17 to 34 while their points per game have gone down from 26 to 24 to 15. Here’s the Chiefs defense’s third downs allowed by game:
vs. Ten: 7-16 (43.75%)
@ Den: 3-8 (37.5%)
@ Mia: 4-15 (26.67%)
Overall the numbers are trending in the right direction. Now the Chiefs get to return to Arrowhead to play on Monday Night Football against the Patriots. The crowd at Arrowhead is guaranteed to be raucous. Between the prime time exposure and KC’s attempt to reclaim the record for loudest outdoor stadium the Patriots will have a fight on their hands. The same Patriots team that struggled to beat the Oakland Raiders in Foxboro. Tom Brady simply hasn’t been the same elite QB that he was for all of those years. After a down year in 2013, Brady is completing just 58.8% of his passes for 5.5 yards per attempt and it’s not like he’s faced a murderer’s row of opponents with games against the Raiders, Vikings, and the same Dolphins team that KC played Sunday. Those completion percentage and YPA numbers that Brady has put up are both below Alex Smith’s thus far this season (62.7% for 6.3 YPA). That’s not to say that Smith is a better QB than Brady, but the mystique of having to face a Tom Brady led offense isn’t what it used to be.
Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism as the season moves forward involves the players that weren’t on the field Sunday against the Vikings. The Chiefs should be getting Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry, DeAnthony Thomas, and Donald Stephenson back on the field in the coming weeks. That list includes two of KC’s most talented players in JC and Berry, a dynamic playmaker that should make an impact on special teams in DAT, plus Donald Stephenson should help stabilize an offensive line that has been one of the weaknesses for KC thus far.
So there are signs that KC is starting to come around.
So is it enough to reignite your playoff hopes?
Alex Smith still has limitations. The wide receiver corps is still short on playmakers. The secondary still has some coverage issues and the run defense has been problematic at times as well. One win can’t completely erase all those issues. It does prove that for at least one week they can overcome them and win a game. So how many more of those wins will follow?
My original win prediction for this season was 9-7. After the Titans game that win total suddenly seemed very unlikely, but now just two weeks and one win later that total now seems possible again. In the AFC this season a 9-7 record will likely at least put KC in the wild card conversation.
So what do you think Addicts? Are the Kansas City Chiefs back after just one win? Are you optimistic as to what the rest of the season could bring? Are you putting the playoffs back on the table? Or are you taking a more cautious approach? Are the same concerns that you had before the Dolphins win still keeping your expectations in check? Do the Chiefs need another offseason to repair their offensive line, wide receiver corps, and defensive backfield before they’ll have another shot at the postseason?
I think the next couple of weeks will go a long ways towards answering those questions. First up is Tom Brady and the Patriots. Let’s just hope the Chiefs bring as much intensity to the Monday night showdown as the fans do because if there is anything I know that we can count on it’s that the Sea of Red will be ready to do it’s part. If the Chiefs put forth the same effort that they did against the Broncos and the Dolphins I think they may just handle their end of the bargain as well.
As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!