Aug 28, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; Kansas City Chiefs kicker Cairo Santos (5) during the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
The problem with kickers is that they have to get their feet wet. Name a kicker and almost all of them started off their career with a terrible first three game stretch or had an inconsistent rookie season. Some examples:
Sebastian Janikowski – After being selected with the 17th overall pick in the 2000 NFL draft, Janikowski made under 70-percent of his field goals in his rookie season. He missed three of his first five career field goal attempts and later in the season missed a 35-yard field goal in overtime.
Adam Vinatieri – Adam missed four of his first seven career field goal attempts. In his second career game he missed three field goals in a 17-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills. He also missed three extra point attempts that season.
Nate Kaeding – Kaeding is the second most accurate kicker in NFL history (true fact) and missed only five kicks is his first regular season. Of those five misses, two of them were from inside of 30 yards. He also cost San Diego a playoff win by missing a 40-yard field goal in overtime.
Jason Hanson – Hanson, who is third all-time in field goals made, missed three of his first six career attempts. In the third game of his career he missed two field goals in a three-point loss to Washington.
Morten Anderson – Anderson has the most made field goals in NFL history. In his first full season in the NFL he cost his team two win in the first four games of the season, missing a field goal in a three-point loss to the Rams and two field goals in a one-point loss to the Cowboys.
Jan Stenerud – The only pure kicker in the hall of fame missed four field goals in his first two career games. He missed five kicks that season from within 40 yards, including two misses from inside 30 yards. He also missed two field goals in a one-point loss to the Chargers in his rookie season.
Dan Bailey – Bailey is presently the NFL’s most accurate kicker. Amongst all kickers in NFL history with at least 100 career attempts he is the only one to have a success rate above 90-percent. Bailey only missed five field goals in his rookie year but he had his struggles. In his second career game he missed a 21-yard field goal in a match that was decided by three points. Later that season he missed two field goals in a game his Cowboys lost in overtime and then the following week had a potential game winner blocked.
We could do this all day if we wanted.
Some Chiefs fans are still spooked by the Justin Medlock experience but Santos’ situation is different. A quick refresher, Medlock was a fifth round draft pick of the Chiefs in 2007 who was cut after only one regular season game when he missed a 30-yard field goal. It was one of the finer disasters of the Carl Peterson era.
There were two big differences with Medlock and Santos: 1) Santos has a much bigger leg than Medlock and 2) Santos was actually good in the preseason. Santos was perfect in all of his preseason tries and was never reported to have any issues during training camp. Medlock missed three of six preseason field goal attempts and was the only kicker on the Chiefs roster after Lawrence Tynes was traded.
It should be noted though that Medlock has put together a nice little career for himself in the CFL. It is highlight by his 2011 season where he was named an all-star and made 49 of 55 field goal attempts. In 2012 he played nine games for the Carolina Panthers where he made 7 of 10 field goals and missed none from under 40 yards.
It should be noted the guy the Panthers cut Medlock for was a then 25-year old named Graham Gano. Gano is similar to Santos in that he has a huge leg but had accuracy issues in his early years. From 2009 to 2011 Gano made only 73.8-percent of his field goal attempts with Washington. He missed ten field goals from inside 40 yards during that time with five of those misses coming from inside of 30 yards.
Since Carolina picked him up Gano’s made 86.4-percent of his field goals and 8-of-9 of his attempts from beyond 50 yards. PFF also rates Gano as the game’s best kickoff specialist thanks in part to only 20-percent of his kickoffs being returned in 2013.
The Chiefs have also been burned on giving up on guys too early. In 2008 the Chiefs brought a kicker in named Connor Barth who made 10 of 12 attempts. But those two misses were rough. Barth missed a 34-yarder and a potential game winner in a one point loss to the Chargers – the game where Dwayne Bowe dropped an onside kick in the fourth quarter. Barth was cut after the season.
Tampa Bay picked up Barth the following season and road out an up and down first full season. Since then they have enjoyed an 86.5-percent field goal kicker who has made 9-of-14 attempts from beyond 50 yards.
Bailing on Santos after two games would be the wrong move for the Chiefs. History shows that young kickers need a little time to adjust to the nature of NFL games and the pressure that comes with them. It is part of the learning curve that comes with all rookies. Should the Chiefs be patient they could end up with one of the game’s better kickers.
In college Santos was one of the more dominate kickers in NCAA history. He made 33 of 35 field goals from inside 50 yards in his junior and senior seasons combined, and in that same period 75 of his 113 kickoffs went for touchbacks (66.4%). His career longs in college were from 57 and 56 yards, and he once made 26 consecutive kicks in a row which is the second longest streak in NCAA history.
Santos has the physical skills and the college production to suggest he can be a good kicker in the NFL. And it should mean something that he has the backing of the NFL’s best special teams coach in Dave Toub. Should Santos be able to pull through the psychological storm that comes with being a young NFL kicker then KC will have something very good on their hands.
NFL history and his talent level says he should be good. Let’s give the kid a chance beyond just two games.