An opinion that I’ve seen growing in popularity is for the Chiefs to trade our #1 pick so that we can move down in the draft, pick a quarterback at a spot more commensurate with the quality of this year’s quarterback crop, and get three or four more picks in the process. I have to admit – this scenario would be a dream come true. But as in all things, it takes two to Tango.
Let’s take a look at just which team may want to do a deal with us. We’ll start by looking at the trade bait. Here are a few opinions about which players comprise the top five prospects in the draft this year:
| Prospect Rank | CBS Sports | Gil Brandt, NFL.com | Drafttek.com | Chris Burke, Si.com |
| 1 | Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M | Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M | Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M | Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M |
| 2 | Bjoern Werner, DE Florida State | Bjoern Werner, DE Florida State | Bjoern Werner, DE Florida State | Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama |
| 3 | Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama | Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama | Star Lotulelei, DT Utah | Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia |
| 4 | Demontre Moore, DE Texas A&M | Jarvis Jones, OLB Georgia | Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia | Demontre Moore, DE Texas A&M |
| 5 | Dee Milliner, CB,Alabama | Star Lotulelei, DT Utah | Erik Fisher, LT Central Michigan | Erik Fisher, LT Central Michigan |
As you can see, there’s actually a fair amount of consensus on at least three players:
- Luke Joeckel, OT
- Bjorn Werner, DE
- Chance Warmack, OG
And all but one of the remaining players got multiple mentions.
We can wish for the “trade down” scenario as much as we want, but without a trading partner, all is for naught. Here’s how this might need to go down.
First and foremost, the Chiefs have to believe that they don’t need any of the players on this list for our top pick. For the sake of argument, let’s say that no one stands out that strongly.
Second, let’s look at the potential trade bait. I’m going to take Chance Warmack off the list, because it just doesn’t seem like guard is a position that anyone in their right mind wants to draft with the first pick. I’ll also take Eric Fisher off the list, because if a team wants an offensive tackle, they’ll pick Joeckel. Same thing with Demontre Moore – for a defensive end, a team would just trade up and get Werner. This is not to say that Joeckel is definitely better than Fisher or that Werner is definitely better than Moore. It’s just if a team is going to trade with us, they’ll be pursuing the best available player for a particular position. So here’s who’s left in our hypothetical scenario:
- Luke Joeckel OT
- Bjorn Werner, DE
- Jarvis Jones, OLB
- Dee Milliner, CB
Now let’s look at which teams are so desperate for an offensive tackle, a defensive end, a linebacker or a cornerback that they’d trade with us. I went to the drafttek.com site as well as BleacherReport.com. Both rank each position by the teams that need that position filled. From these two sources, here is the rather short list of the top four positions represented as top picks on our list, and teams that need those positions filled urgently:
| Left Offensive Tackle | Defensive End | Outside Linebacker | Cornerback |
| Arizona Chicago Green Bay San Diego St. Louis | Cleveland Detroit | Buffalo Cincinnati Cleveland New York Giants St. Louis | New Orleans Oakland Philadelphia Tampa Bay |
For our prospective dance partner, I think we can rule out teams that are truly bad and need multiple players. At this point those teams need more picks, not fewer, in this fairly even draft class. That takes Arizona, Cleveland, Detroit, Oakland and Philadelphia off the table. Our small list is suddenly much smaller:
| Left Offensive Tackle | Defensive End | Outside Linebacker | Cornerback |
| Chicago Green Bay San Diego St. Louis | Buffalo Cincinnati New York Giants St. Louis | New Orleans Tampa Bay |
The best candidate for us, I think, is a team that meets all of the following criteria:
- A desperate jones to fill that particular position because it is a huge, freaking obvious gap in their team
- A feeling that they are one player away from the [fill in blank: playoffs, division title, conference title, Super Bowl] in 2013
- A plurality of veteran players who only have 1-2 years left to make the big run
Applying this criteria, and especially the second one, we can eliminate St. Louis, Buffalo, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay. our list now goes to this:
| Left Offensive Tackle | Defensive End | Outside Linebacker | Cornerback |
| Chicago Green Bay San Diego | New York Giants | New Orleans |
Of these five remaining teams, I’m going to axe San Diego. They fit all of the criteria, but there’s no way they’ll pull this trigger with a division rival. I’m also going to take off New Orleans, because Dee Milliner is great, but he’d have to be a Leon Sandcastle or a Darelle Revis to be a cornerback that goes first in the draft. Finally, I’ll remove the New York Giants, because when the Giants pick at 19, there will likely be a few good OLB’s available, or they could get the one they want by jumping up 5-6 slots, rather than 18 slots.
The moral of the story is no surprise. Left tackles are coveted. And so there you have it, my friends. We really have just two teams to trade with this year for our number one pick:
- Chicago
- Green Bay
Right now, Chicago has the 20th pick and the Packers have the 26th pick. My money is on the Packers. With Bryan Bulaga returning from injury at Right Tackle, a truly terrible season by current Left Tackle Marshall Newhouse and Aaron Rodgers in his prime, this trade may make sense for the Pack. The Packers also need a running back and center, but both are readily available through lower picks and free agency. A Luke Joeckel could put the Packers back in the Super Bowl. And I know this escaped none of you, but John Dorsey knows the Pack pretty well.
If we are going to find a willing trade partner, our path to success just may go through Green Bay. What do you think, Addicts? Can Dorsey persuade his old colleagues to trade with us?!