After a pretty evenhanded analysis by Big Matt this afternoon, my wheels were set into motion to discern whether I personally would have pulled the trigger on bringing Vrabel in.
So instead of letting me make the call, I thought I’d put the question before all of us. So let’s put this into consideration…
Let’s say the Chiefs and Patriots are engaged in negotiations for Matt Cassel in the spring of 2009.
You, as a voter in this poll, must be realistic:
- You cannot talk Scott Pioli out of Matt Cassel. Pioli wants him, and he will be a Chief.
- Keep in mind we do not yet know that the Chiefs draft haul that year will be horrible. As far as we know, we are expecting a 2010- or 2011-style draft haul. I am not giving you the luxury of hindsight, so please try not to vote with it.
Scott Pioli’s Chiefs obviously want Cassel, and Bill Belichek’s Patriots obviously want a draft pick (or eight).
So the trade is hypothetically set up as follows:
- The Patriots give up Matt Cassel.
- The Chiefs give up: their 3rd rounder in 2009 and their 3rd rounder in 2010
We obviously can’t know what the Chiefs’ draft position will be in 2010, but combining the average 3rd round draft position with the high-3rd that the Chiefs had in 2009…. that works out to ~500 points on the draft value chart. (For those who follow such things.)
Set up this way, the Chiefs are going to acquire Matt Cassel. No other team will outbid that.
But Scott Pioli doesn’t want to give up two draft picks. He wants maximum flexibility in the draft should he feel the need to move around. Typically he would try to do this by trading down, but he’s inherited a team with the #3 overall pick, and you simply can’t trade down that way.
So Pioli starts searching for ways to noodle with this arrangement.
We can reasonably assume that around 500 points is Cassel’s value as of the 2009 offseason, following his successful work with the Patriots (aided and abetted, however, by working with Josh McDaniels and two All Pro WRs). That grades out about twice as much as your average third round pick, but it’s also about 60 points shy of the #34 overall that the Chiefs have.
So Pioli proposes:
- The Patriots give up Matt Cassel and their mid-4th.
- The Chiefs give up their high-2nd.
Belichek doesn’t want to give up a draft pick, so he counters:
- The Patriots give up Matt Cassel and the well-aged former All Pro Mike Vrabel.
- The Chiefs give up their high-2nd.
In this arrangement, Vrabel’s value would be equivalent to a mid-4th.
And Pioli, of course, pulls the trigger.
So here’s your poll: