My Official Prediction for the #5 Overall Pick
Arrowhead Addict and the Kansas City Chiefs scouting department have entered the home stretch.
We’ve been round and round on a hundred different prospects, few covered more thoroughly than on this blog. And I hope you consider yourself now ready for the big show. In case you’re still looking for some good materials to prepare you for the big day(s), here‘s the “ask Merlin” forum for questions to be directed to our resident draft guru, and here is an extensive list of my big board so you know I’m not BSing anybody when I say I like or dislike our draft picks.
But based on all the reports I’ve seen, and based on players that I’ve personally evaluated, and my knowledge as to how Pioli operates and how the Chiefs scouting department is oriented, here is my personal prediction.
It is not based on what I want the Chiefs to do, but instead what I believe they will do.
And it’s after the jump.
1. The Chiefs will not be able to trade down. The only team that would trade up to the #5 are the Browns. The Bills don’t do explosive things like that, and the 49ers like their two first rounders too much. But as for Cleveland, the Browns aren’t going to trade away a 2nd round pick in order to move up two spots for a safety, and Clausen is going to fall to them anyway.
2. The Chiefs will not go with QB Jimmy Clausen. While I feel like that pick would be the best for the team, I’m admittedly thinking from a fan’s perspective. From a business perspective, as has been said by smarter people than me, Pioli is still invested in Cassel, which in my opinion is a travesty that we’ve now passed on Mark Sanchez and Jimmy Clausen to hand out ridiculous millions for an underperforming backup. But, if the heated reaction I’ve faced on this blog is any indication, it’s also important to remember the fanbase will absolutely rebel against Pioli if he bails on Cassel this soon out.
3. I don’t think they take a nose tackle or defensive lineman. The only exception here is if DT Ndamukong Suh falls, which he won’t. DT Gerald McCoy doesn’t fit our defense terribly well. NT Terrance Cody isn’t worth the #5 overall, and I’ve argued befor that NT Dan Williams is a risky workout warrior.
4. I also don’t think they go safety, because of what Pioli’s specifically said and also because of arguments I’ve read on this blog and elsewhere making the case that only the slimmest minority of safeties even justify a Top Ten selection, and most of them get injured frequently.
5. ILB Rolando McClain is a pipe dream. Simply not in the cards, due to the fact that he’s a slow prospect at a devalued position.
6. I think Pioli goes offensive line. But with OT Russell Okung off the board (99% likely, to Washington), I seriously doubt Pioli opts for OT Bryan Bulaga. That’s lazy connections-type thinking. Bulaga is high character and has high intangibles but he is, in essence, a right tackle, and surely Pioli sees that. I do suspect that he’s looking to upgrade the LT position, and OT Branden Albert might make a fitting replacement for LG Brian Waters or could be the next Will Shields type guy to man RG for years and years. My guess is we will move Albert to LG and release Waters.
In the end, Pioli see the value in, and truly does want, a true left tackle. And as we know, he wants a safe bet with a high ceiling. And that leads me to this conclusion.
With the #5 overall, the Kansas City Chiefs select…
OT Trent Williams, Oklahoma
Trent Williams is one of the most amazingly athletic lineman in this year’s Draft, but he doesn’t come with the extreme question marks of Bruce Campbell. He offers some flexibility on the offensive line in case he doesn’t work out at left tackle. But he’s prototypical, and has been tested against some of the best passrushers in the Big 12.
Our offensive line, I would imagine, shakes out like this in 2010 (assuming no other moves are made to LT):
LT: Williams, Albert
LG: Albert, Brown
C: Wiegmann, Niswanger
RG: Lilja, Niswanger
RT: O’Callaghan, Ndukwe
You heard it here first.