Most anyone you ask will tell you that the chances of the Chiefs trading up for Robert Griffin III are slim.
Yet all those lists that feature teams that might be interested in trading with the Ram for the number two pick in the NFL Draft seem to include the Seattle Seahwaks. Seattle is picking 12th. I am not sure why it is possible for the Seahawks to move up but not the Chiefs. But I digress.
What I am interested in is what would happen if the Chiefs tried to sneak in the back door, so to speak, by trading with he Rams right now.
This isn’t something that usually happens. Teams don’t often swap picks until right before or even during the draft.
According to this article over at Pro Football Talk, the Rams see three possible windows in which they would trade the pick.
Demoff points to three windows: Before free agency, at the late March league meetings, and in the few days before the draft.
This is interesting because if the Chiefs wanted to be aggressive, they might be able to get the pick from the Rams now for a much better price. The thinking here is that the value of the number two overall pick is only going to go up as the draft nears. Right now, there are more options at QB available for teams that are weary of going after Griffin.
If the Chiefs were to make the Rams an offer right now, St. Louis would likely approach all their other potential suitors to see if they are willing to match (if they have a higher first-round draft pick than KC) or beat the Chiefs’ offer. Those teams may may be wary of getting into a bidding war now with so many other options currently available. At best, the Rams would give the Chiefs the pick. That, or one of the other RGIII suitors would panic and outbid the Chiefs, snagging the pick before they were ready. This would be good for the Rams and while the Chiefs would miss out on Griffin, they’d have forced one team out of the Peyton Manning/Matt Flynn market before the QBs even became available. If that team were to be the potentially aggressive Dolphins or Redskins, it would be a win for the Chiefs should they wish to then turn their attention to Manning.
There is also this interesting article by The Big Lead to consider. The traditional trade value chart is incredibly outdated. Given the bust rate of all draft picks, it just isn’t worth it for a team to give up an entire draft for one player, even a potential franchise QB. Teams are a lot smarter than they were when the New Orleans Saints traded all of their draft picks and two future picks for the right to select Ricky Williams. Should the Rams be rigid and turn down too many offers, expected a king’s ransom for their pick, they could find themselves on settling for a worse deal.
For instance, let’s say that the Dolphins land Flynn and the Redskins nab Peyton Manning and the Chiefs and Seahawks aren’t willing to pay what the Rams are asking for the second pick. Now the market may soften because teams won’t believe the Rams will have the guts to actually take Griffin, in which case they’ll start turning their attention to the Vikings sitting at number three.
There is no telling how this will all play out but trading for the pick early, before free agency, isn’t something we’ve talked about on AA yet. I want your opinion on the matter. I know many of you don’t think the Chiefs will do it under any circumstances but hypothetically, if they were to go for it, when do you think would be the best time to do so?