Chiefs DVOA Analysis: Week 10

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Where are the Chiefs after two division losses on the road? Well, among other things, were the season to end today, Oakland would be in, Chiefs would be out. Things that make you go hmm.

For me, the questions that matter most right now are:

1. Were these two recent losses examples of what can happen to any team on any given Sunday, or indicative of bigger problems?

2. Are our players getting better, staying the same, or losing a step as this season progresses? In other words, are there tangible signs that Todd Haley and his staff are developing personnel and if so, who?

3. What are the areas of play and positions that most need to improve?

4. What is the likelihood that we can recover from these two losses and end up edging out the rest of the division down the stretch?

We’ll find out if the latest DVOA analysis provides any new insights to those questions beyond the jump.

As always, if you’re unfamiliar with Football Outsider’s DVOA methodology, go here. Now for the rankings:

I decided it might be visually beneficial to show improvements in green and declines in red. Lots of red showing; lots of mediocrity amongst all that red too. A mere two weeks ago the Chiefs were the NFL’s top ranked team in Total DVOA; now look at where we stand.

Even with the numbers he put up on Sunday, Cassel has not improved substantially – matter of fact, he’s probably not even in the top half of the league. We look to be a one trick pony – Jamaal Charles. Moreover, Thomas Jones presence in the backfield might reasonably be viewed as a detriment to our offense. The Chiefs appear to be, in almost every aspect, a team in free fall. Nothing appears to be getting fixed; few players, if any, are showing major signs of improvement.

Additional stats of interest:

Two weeks ago, we were the team statistically most likely to make the playoffs. Two weeks ago we were the AFC team most likely to be in the Super Bowl. Now . . . outside, looking in.

The Chiefs pass defense got exposed badly on Sunday. The table which follows suggests where the problems may lie. These numbers are not simply the result of the Denver game, they are cumulative for the season and they are telling. Long story short, we cover the #1 WR and that’s about where our pass coverage begins and ends. One might even be justified in arguing that the decision to snub Page, and, in effect, go all young with the secondary was perhaps ill-advised.

Two weeks ago, I was extremely optimistic about the Chiefs prospects this season. Now, I feel compelled to completely reconsider that position and admit that my optimism was probably premature, if not completely misplaced. Even though our schedule still bodes better for us than for the rest of the division, I simply do not see any reason to believe we possess what it will take to soldier through and win the division. Injuries kill us because we are s-o-o-o-o thin, two years in we’re still failing to develop talent at key positions, and on top of all that, a significant portion of our starters and/or regular rotation have little to no experience playing a full 16 game season. Please somebody explain to me how we’re supposed to overcome so many negatives to prevail in the games we need to win the division?

I’ll close with an excerpt of Football Outsiders Aaron Schatz’ observations concerning this precipitous decline of the Chiefs. I think he sums my team up pretty well.

The Chiefs have completely divebombed since I wrote two weeks ago that we needed to start taking them seriously as Super Bowl contenders. Perhaps they didn’t really want to be taken seriously as Super Bowl contenders. Well, your wish is now granted, guys. In two weeks, the Chiefs have dropped from first overall in DVOA to 15th. Their actual DVOA rating has dropped 23 percentage points. According to our playoff odds report, their chances of making the playoffs have dropped roughly in half, from 94.2 percent two weeks ago to 48.0 percent now. Their chances of winning the Super Bowl have plummeted from 13.1 percent to 1.0 percent.

-Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders

So there’s my Double Take. What’s your take, Addicts?

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Tags: Chiefs, Jamaal Charles, kansas city chiefs, matt cassel

Lyle Graversen

I really appreciate these posts, great stuff. I think the last two games were sort of a "course correct". We weren't the best team in football like they had us for a while. We're now in the middle of the pack and I think that's about right. I think after living in the league basement for years we can all be happy with average (or slightly above) this season. We're young and will eventually earn those high rankings we had a few weeks back.

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chiefsfanatic

The chiefs hasnt been the same since they lost Dexter,until they learn to win on the road nothings going to change.they lack that mental toughness all of a sudden.if they dont win sunday then kiss the playoffs goodbye.were going to have to have at least nine wins to have a chance.

Double D

The same methodology applies to every team so Football Outsiders is not on a mission to prove one team is better than another. They're just looking what is taking place on every snap for a wide range of specific, but also common football situations. If you're referring to me trying to prove something I believe my main point is that it is looking more and more like the Chiefs may have peaked prior to the Raiders game and it's pretty much been all downhill since then. And that descent is now happening at a pretty good clip I might add. I'm struggling to understand what can be done to reverse it because I'm watching it all right there on the front row too. We do not seem to be developing any players. For example, Bowe is basically the same player he was when Haley arrived, maybe even a little worse? Once you get past Bowe, who are the young receivers on the verge of making an impact? I'd like to believe that maybe Tucker or Copper are close but where's the evidence? Cassel has enjoyed a top-notch running game and major improvement with his O-Line this year but that hasn't really translated into him being a profilic, play-action passer has it? He's doing a great job of protecting the ball but has he improved his accuracy over what what we saw last year? Shall I continue? I know we're not really a Super Bowl contenders, especially not now, but can we honestly point to anything tangible that gives us any level of confidence that we're making meaningful strides in that direction? You know, I'm not all that sure that the things we did to get us to 5-2 were anything more than smoke and mirrors - and I'm thinking the rest of the league has probably figured that out too.

stevetech

Nice post, But just like when the Chiefs were rolling, the stats will show the Chiefs Reeling, When we start rolling again so will are ratings. Injuries to key spots and facing a trio of desperate teams led us to a close win, a close loss, and a 1st quarter we could not recover from. I disagree that the players have not improved. Cassel has had his 3rd 400 yard passing game, something Tom Brady has never had. Bowe had a nice game. It is just a matter of putting all the pieces together like we did vs San Fran and Jax. two decent teams IMO

Big Jim

The great thing about statistics is you can make them look any way you want. I think we are seeing a team in transition and on the right track, but make no mistake, these KC Chiefs have not arrived. They are definitely on the right track and alot of talent is there, but Come On Man! Anybody that knows anything about football will tell you this team is in no way shape or form a Super Bowl contender. There is still much to learn and a couple more drafts to get through, before anyone can tell you what we have here. I see a ton of positives, but also an equal amount of youthful mistakes. So may I suggest that we all take a deep breath and get yourself a front row seat to the making of a very good NFL team.

If you're referring to me trying to prove something I believe my main point is that it is looking more and more like the Chiefs may have peaked prior to the Raiders game and it's pretty much been all downhill since then. And that descent is now happening at a pretty good clip I might add. I'm struggling to understand what can be done to reverse it because I'm watching it all right there on the front row too.

We do not seem to be developing any players. For example, Bowe is basically the same player he was when Haley arrived, maybe even a little worse? Once you get past Bowe, who are the young receivers on the verge of making an impact? I'd like to believe that maybe Tucker or Copper are close but where's the evidence? Cassel has enjoyed a top-notch running game and major improvement with his O-Line this year but that hasn't really translated into him being a profilic, play-action passer has it? He's doing a great job of protecting the ball but has he improved his accuracy over what what we saw last year? Shall I continue?

I know we're not really a Super Bowl contenders, especially not now, but can we honestly point to anything tangible that gives us any level of confidence that we're making meaningful strides in that direction? You know, I'm not all that sure that the things we did to get us to 5-2 were anything more than smoke and mirrors - and I'm thinking the rest of the league has probably figured that out too.