As NFL training camps quickly approach we are wrapping up the speculation period of the NFL offseason. The Kansas City Chiefs have had an unexpectedly eventful past few months. It started with them trading up to take quarterback Patrick Mahomes and continued with the release of wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. Then there was the firing of general manager John Dorsey.
Over the past month I have written a few different pieces advocating for the Chiefs offense. I encouraged KC fans not to panic over Maclin’s release and, just last week, I argued against the Chiefs having one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Both of those posts referenced the impact that Maclin’s release would have on the team. We all have our personal beliefs on how big or little of an impact it will have, but I wanted some actual numbers to back up my beliefs. So I spent a LOT of time digging through the numbers last season to see just what we should expect on offense without Jeremy Maclin.
I should stop right now and warn you that this is going to be a number heavy piece. If that’s not your kind of thing please feel free to skip this one and come back next week. I won’t be offended. However, if you are a fellow stat head like me I think you might find what I uncovered interesting.
I went through the offensive numbers of every game that the Chiefs played last season. I looked at Jeremy Maclin’s snap counts, the overall production both when he played and when he did not and what kind of defenses the Chiefs faced both with and without Maclin. Basically I really went deep into the numbers on this one. I wanted to know how the Chiefs offense performed both with and without him this past season.
Before we get into the results I want to be up front about a decision I made when looking at the numbers. I decided to throw out the games against the Colts (where Maclin played) and Jaguars (where he only took two snaps) because Alex Smith was not the primary quarterback in those games. Nick Foles took over half the snaps versus Indy and played the entire game against the Jaguars. A different quarterback means different play calls, different preferences, etc. I felt it was best to compare how the offense performed with and without Jeremy Maclin only when Alex Smith was the quarterback. In my opinion that gives the best look at how Maclin’s presence effects the offense. When you change the quarterback too it adds too many variables and it becomes too hard to tell what was because of Maclin and what was because of Foles being in.
That leaves us with eleven games where Alex Smith was the quarterback and Jeremy Maclin played at least 76% of the offensive snaps and four games where Smith was the quarterback and Maclin did not play at all. Obviously that is an unbalanced sample size but its all we’ve got to work with. So let’s start by looking at the basic production of the offense with and without Maclin.
In the 11 games where the Chiefs had Smith and Maclin they averaged the following:
23.6 points, 345.5 yards, 5.6 yards per play, 41% 3rd down conversions
In the four games where Smith did not have Maclin they averaged the following:
24.0 points, 315.3 yards, 5.6 yards per play, 31% 3rd down conversions
So the points per game and yards per play were basically the same with and without Jeremy Maclin this past season. However, there is definitely a drop off in yards per game there and most alarming is the huge difference in 3rd down conversion rate. To put that difference into perspective, 41% was just outside the top ten in 3rd down conversions last season while 31% would have been dead last in the entire NFL. That should have triggered a HUGE red flag going into next season. Does that mean we should expect the Chiefs to be awful on 3rd down next season with Maclin gone? Let’s dig a little deeper to see what the numbers say.
First off, was the caliber of defenses faced an issue? To figure that out I looked at the average numbers given up by the defenses that KC faced both with and without Maclin. This is what the defenses that K.C. faced when they had Smith and Maclin averaged:
23.5 points allowed, 347.5 yards allowed, 5.5 yards per play allowed, 39.5% 3rd downs allowed
This is what the defenses that KC faced without Maclin averaged:
23.1 points allowed, 353.8 yards allowed, 5.4 yards per play allowed, 37.5% 3rd downs allowed
So the defenses that the Chiefs. faced without Jeremy Maclin were a tiny bit better than the ones they faced with him. The defenses they faced without Maclin gave up a few more yards per game but were slightly better in the other three categories. However, I don’t think we can fairly say that the defenses they faced were the reason for the huge drop in 3rd down conversions. Yes, the defenses they faced allowed 2% less conversion over the course of the season but that doesn’t equate to the 10% drop that the Chiefs had.
So does that mean the passing game just wasn’t as good without Maclin?
If the Chiefs averaged less yards per game and less third down conversions without their number one receiver you would assume that was because the passing game suffered. Strangely enough, that is not what the numbers show. Here are the passing yards per game, average yards per attempt per game, and Alex Smith’s completion percentage in the eleven games with Maclin:
238.2 passing yards, 7.4 yards per attempt, 66.4% completions
Here are those same numbers in the four games that Smith didn’t have Maclin:
232.2 passing yards, 7.2 yards per attempt, 69.6% completions
The Chiefs averaged just a few less yards passing per game and had a minor drop in yards per attempt without Maclin but actually saw an increase in completion percentage without him. These numbers simply don’t support a drop in third down percentage by 10%. My next thought was perhaps that not having Maclin allowed defenses to focus on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Maybe they weren’t as productive without Maclin drawing the attention of the defense. So I looked into their numbers both with and without Maclin in the lineup. The results were some of the most surprising of any I found while working on this post.
In games where Alex Smith was the quarterback and Jeremy Maclin played these were the average receptions and yards per game.
Jeremy Maclin: 3.9 receptions, 47.4 yards
Travis Kelce: 4.7 receptions, 60.3 yards
Tyreek Hill: 2.6 receptions, 24.o yards
Total: 11.2 receptions, 131.7 yards
In games where Alex Smith was the quarterback but Jeremy Maclin did not play these were the average receptions and yards per game for Kelce and Hill:
Travis Kelce: 6.5 receptions, 95.o yards
Tyreek Hill: 7.0 receptions, 61.8 yards
Total: 13.5 receptions, 156.8 yards
So in games without Jeremy Maclin the combo of Kelce and Hill produced MORE than the trio of Maclin, Kelce, and Hill did in games where Maclin played. I found that to be both surprising and encouraging for those two going into next season. I would also point out that if Kelce and Hill out gained the production of Kelce/Hill/Maclin and yet KC averaged a few yards LESS passing per game it points out that guys like Chris Conley and Albert Wilson did NOT step up when Maclin was out last season. Perhaps 2017 will be different but the numbers from 2016 aren’t encouraging for those two.
So if the overall passing numbers were similar, the defenses faced were similar, and Kelce and Hill stepped up with Maclin out then why did the offense struggle on 3rd down so much?
I think I have the answer for you.
With Alex Smith as the quarterback last season the Chiefs averaged a similar amount of points per game and the overall passing statistics were very similar with and without Jeremy Maclin. So why did they do SO much worse on third down? While all the other offensive numbers stayed pretty consistent there was one other area where there was a noticeable drop off. Rushing yards. In the eleven games with Smith and Maclin the Chiefs averaged 116.4 yards rushing per game. In the four games where Smith didn’t have Maclin they averaged 94.8 rushing yards. How big of a drop off is that? Over the course of the season last year 116.4 rushing yards per game would have been good for 8th best in the NFL. 94.8 rushing yards per game would have ranked 25th.
So does that mean that defenses stuffed the box with Maclin gone and the drop in rushing yards was due to a decline in rushing productivity? Simply put? No.
On the season last year the Chiefs averaged 4.24 yards per carry.
In the four games that Smith played without Maclin they averaged 4.26 yards per carry.
In fact, the defenses they faced without Maclin were actually worse against the run than those they faced with him over the course of the season. The defenses they faced with Maclin gave up an average of 104.5 rushing yards per game while the defenses they faced without him gave up an average of 110.9 yards per game.
The Chiefs simply didn’t commit to running the ball in those four games. I would personally speculate that Andy Reid felt he needed to get a little too cute with the play calling without Maclin. When teams don’t run the ball they put themselves in third and long and then you don’t convert as many third downs. Am I saying that Jeremy Maclin being gone had ZERO effect on the decrease in third down percentage? No, not having one of their better receivers definitely would have helped but as I have been preaching all offseason, the key to producing next season is less about replacing Jeremy Maclin and more about revitalizing the running game. I think Kelce and Hill showed they can step up and produce without Maclin in the lineup.
So what do you think Chiefs fans? Are you in agreement that these numbers show that the Chiefs can replace Jeremy Maclin in the pass game but in order for them to be more productive (especially without Maclin) that they have to commit to running the football? Do you see any flaws in these numbers that I’ve researched? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.
As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!