The Kansas City Chiefs have had an eventful offseason. While free agency was practically nonexistent the drafting of quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the first round and the release of star wide receiver Jeremy Maclin has given Chiefs fans plenty to talk about.
“How long will Patrick Mahomes need to be ready to start in the NFL?”
“Will Alex Smith step up this season knowing his future as a starter is on the line?”
“What were the Chiefs thinking when they cut Jeremy Maclin?”
“Can Tyreek Hill step up and be a true number one wide receiver now that Maclin is gone?”
Look, I want answers to all of these questions just as much as anyone. Heck, I’ve written multiple pieces here at Arrowhead Addict debating those very points. Here’s the thing though: all those questions that we’ve been obsessing over relate to one aspect of one side of the football.
Yes, the NFL is a passing league. The quarterbacks always get the headlines and the highlights. Maybe someday if Patrick Mahomes does turn into a star quarterback, the Chiefs will be a team that lives and dies by passing the football. They are not going to be that team in 2017. As interesting as it is to debate about the passing game, the 2017 Chiefs will only be a contender if they continue to play good defense and, on offense, they get back to running the football effectively.
We could spend an entire piece on the topic of whether or not the Chiefs can maintain their defensive prowess in 2017, but today I’d rather talk about the often overlooked (at least this offseason) aspect of the Chiefs offense: the running game.
When Andy Reid came to Kansas City, we were all warned to kiss our running game goodbye. This was a coach that didn’t care about running the football at all. “He lives and dies by the pass,” we were told. The funny thing is, that didn’t end up being the case in Kansas City. Maybe he learned from his past experiences. Maybe he just designed the Chiefs offense around what he saw as their strengths. Whatever the case, in his first three years in Kansas City, Andy Reid had very good rushing attacks. In all three of those seasons the Chiefs finished in the top ten (often top five) in rushing yards per game, yards per carry, and touchdowns. Then came the 2016 season and the Chiefs dropped out of the top ten in all three of those categories.
A simple glance at the rushing stats during the Reid era allows you to see the clear decline last season.
2013: 442 attempts, 2,056 yards, 4.7 YPC, 17 TDs
2014: 420 attempts, 1,918 yards, 4.6 YPC, 18 TDs
2015: 436 attempts, 2,044 yards, 4.7 YPC, 19 TDs
2016: 412 attempts, 1,748 yards, 4.2 YPC, 15 TDs
Yes, you can see a drop off there. Maybe you’re thinking, “Eh, they just had a down year. I’m not too worried.” The problem is, those numbers don’t show just how much less effective the Chiefs really were. Let’s dig into those numbers a little.
So we just saw that the 2016 Chiefs were down in rushing production about 300 yards, .5 yards per carry, and a few touchdowns from their averages for Reid’s first three seasons in Kansas City. That in and of itself would be worrisome, but the Chiefs actually suffered an even more drastic drop in rushing production than those numbers show. The Chiefs rushing statistics were bailed out by their little guys (mostly Tyreek Hill). The combination of Hill, Albert Wilson, and DeAnthoy Thomas combined for 30 rushes, 346 yards, a whopping 11.5 yards per carry, and 4 touchdowns.
In 2015 the Chiefs running game production came from Spencer Ware, Charcandrick West, Jamaal Charles, Knile Davis, and Alex Smith. Those five players put up the following rushing stats in 2015:
415 attempts, 1,971 yards, 4.75 YPC, 17 TDs
Those same five players saw a MASSIVE decline in productivity in 2016.
375 attempts, 1,411 yards, 3.76 YPC, 10 TDs
That is a massive drop in production that was masked by the some explosive often “gadget” like plays by KC’s little wide receivers. If the Chiefs want their offense to be consistent enough to win, especially in the postseason, they have to find a way to get their rushing productivity up. Those big plays by guys like Hill obviously help the team and provide a spark, but one big play every 3-4 games doesn’t provide a reliable rushing attack to compliment Alex Smith.
Just to put into perspective how bad the Chiefs traditional rushing attack was last season. If you took the 30 carries they gave to Hill, Wilson, and DAT and replaced it with 30 carries of the 3.76 YPC the others got it would give the Chiefs a total rushing stat line of:
405 attempts, 1524 yards, 3.76 PYC, 11 TDs
That would have ranked Kansas City 25th in the NFL in rushing yards and 26th in yards per carry. THAT my friends, is what has to be better in 2017 if the Chiefs want to have a shot at making a run at a Super Bowl this season. Alex Smith is going to be Alex Smith. The Chiefs have some elite weapons for him to throw to. The defense is going to keep Kansas City in games. The question is if the running game can return to form after an abysmal 2016 season.
So what has to happen for things to improve? I’m glad you asked.
It goes without saying that the Chiefs running backs need to perform better in 2017 if the running game is going to improve. We’ll discuss a couple of them specifically in a moment. Before we get to the backs lets start our list of things that need to be better with the big guys up front that open the holes for them, the offensive line.
The Kansas City Chiefs do not have a bad offensive line. They’re young, athletic, and the Chiefs have a definite advantage over many teams this season because they are returning all seven offensive linemen that started games for them last season. Their pass protection in particular has steadily improved over the past few seasons.
That’s the good news.
The bad news is that they have not shown the ability to overpower defenses at the line of scrimmage. This was evident in their poor execution on short yardage and goal line plays. In simplest terms, the Chiefs offensive line needs to be stronger at the point of attack. This offensive line can get to the second level well. They understand positioning and creating running lanes. They will be comfortable with each other and their communication should be good this season. The real question is can they line up against a good defense and create a push in the right direction. The Chiefs run game can be solid, even if the Chiefs aren’t super physical up front, but they will never have a dominant run game if the offensive line can’t move guys off the line of scrimmage. Period.
Will this improve in 2017? It’s hard to say. The fact that the Chiefs line is so young does at least open them up to the possibility that a NFL strength and conditioning program will continue to help them develop this area of their game but until we see them in action in the first preseason game there simply is no way to know for sure. Every year we hear training camp reports about how this guy “looks bigger” or has clearly added muscle mass. Blah blah blah. Sometimes it turns out to be true; other times not so much.
Probably a bigger thing to watch for in training camp is if the Chiefs are putting an emphasis on being physical up front and running the football. It’s hard for teams to develop a physically dominant persona if they don’t practice it every day. The bottom line is that the Chiefs offensive line must be more physical in the running game if the Chiefs are going to see a big improvement from last season’s poor production running the football.
Now let’s talk about the running backs.
While the offensive line plays a big part in the success of the run game, the Chiefs also need better production from the running backs themselves. There are four running backs that are going to be competing for a role with the team in training camp: Spencer Ware, Kareem Hunt, Charcandrick West, and C.J. Spiller.
In this writer’s humble opinion, West is a great third running back. He provides good depth and can fill in if needed, but I don’t think he should be a featured part of the offense. I think Spiller is done. If he can revive his career here in K.C. and be a regular contributor, then that’s a bonus, but I don’t think anyone should be relying on it. I would expect that the bulk of the Chiefs’ rushing attack will come from some combination of Ware and Hunt.
Let’s start with Ware since he is more of a known commodity than the rookie. I feel like there are two key points:
1. When he is fresh and healthy, Ware is a productive starting caliber NFL running back.
2. He has not yet shown the ability to withstand a featured back workload for an entire season and remain productive.
There was a point early in last season where I thought the Chiefs had found their next great feature back in Spencer Ware. In 2015 when Jamaal Charles went down to injury it was actually Charcandrick West that got the majority of the carries in his absence. However, Ware proved himself so productive as the change of pace back that going into 2016 he surpassed West and became the number one guy. Through the first six games things were going great. In fact, if you combine his 2015 numbers with the first six games of 2016 you get:
183 attempts, 962 yards rushing, 5.3 YPC, 21 receptions, 290 yards receiving, 10 total TDs
Ware was productive. Period. The problem is that from that point on Ware stopped being highly productive. He was banged up and never really got going again. In fact, after putting up at least 70 yards rushing in eight of the ten games that he received double digit carries through 2015 and the first six games of 2016 he failed to reach the 70 yard mark again the rest of the season despite getting double digit carries seven more times. He missed two games to injury and in the other nine he only averaged the following:
14.1 carries, 51.6 yards/game, 4.0 YPC, 2 total rushing TDs
Spencer Ware went from being a promising young starting running back to just a guy. Now maybe his injuries last season were just bad luck. Maybe he’ll start the season healthy, claim the featured running back position and stay healthy and productive for the entire season plus a playoff run. MAYBE. However, as a former quarterback, Ware simply doesn’t have the proven track record as a feature back. He never topped 200 carries in a season in college.
It could simply be that Ware is a much more productive running back when he isn’t asked to carry the work load every week throughout the season. If Ware proves this theory wrong, great, but I think when the Chiefs drafted Kareem Hunt they were preparing for the possibility that Ware is better as either the number two guy or part of an even split so he can stay fresh and not wear down.
That brings us to Kareem Hunt.
If there is one single player on the 2017 Chiefs roster that has the most potential to revitalize the running game it is Kareem Hunt. That’s not to say that Chiefs fans should be counting on him to do it, he’s just a rookie third round draft pick after all. That having been said, Hunt has some serious upside that could give the running game the jump start it so badly needs after last season.
I just mentioned that Ware does not have a track record as a work horse running back. That’s not true of Kareem Hunt. While Spencer Ware only had 295 total carries in his three seasons at LSU combined, Hunt had 262 carries in his senior year alone (along with 41 receptions). In fact, Hunt averaged almost 200 carries per season in his four years as the starter at Toledo. I think we can all agree that the pounding he took at Toledo and the pounding he’ll take in the NFL over a 16 game season will be different, but as college backs go, Hunt is a proven every down back.
The other thing that Hunt has going for him is that he is incredibly shifty and hard to bring down. We established that the Chiefs offensive line is solid but doesn’t exactly over power people at the line of scrimmage. Hunt’s running style could be a perfect match for this line since he has shown the ability to fit through small openings and not go down on first contact. You can see this if you just take five minutes to watch his game tape.
If you don’t want to take my word for it or watch tape yourself, there is also this from Pro Football Focus’ Draft Guide. Hunt scored seventh best in college football in PFF’s elusiveness rating which combines missed tackles created and yards after contact. He was second best in college football in the percentage of time he was brought down on first contact. He was also sixth among running backs in receiving yards per route run. Bottom line, while he hasn’t proven ANYTHING in the NFL yet, his college resume looks like a guy that could be exactly what this team is looking for.
In order for the Chiefs running game to be as productive as they need either Ware has to prove he can maintain his productivity with a heavy work load or Hunt has to prove that he can be a factor as a rookie. If both of those things happen, the Chiefs could have a dramatic improvement. If neither of them happen, it could be another frustrating year on offense as Alex Smith is forced to carry the bulk of the load on his shoulders again.
So what do you think Chiefs fans? Do you agree that despite all the buzz over Jeremy Maclin’s release last week that the real story of the 2017 offense is whether or not they can get the run game going again? I believe that to be 100% true. Personally, I am hoping that Kareem Hunt proves to be the real deal and Spencer Ware goes back to being a complimentary player like he was in 2015 (a highly productive one), but I’d love to hear what you think in the comments below.
As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!