The Kansas City Chiefs paid a steep price during the draft to move up and take Patrick Mahomes. Was it too much?
Why, hello there! Fancy meeting all of you here. I’m sure you are wondering who this new guy writing an article for Arrowhead Addict is, so let me introduce myself. My name is Kody, and I am one of the new contributors here. Let me tell you, I am excited as all get out that I have this opportunity to talk to all of you.
We will hopefully start some good discussions (*cough* arguments *cough*) with some of my opinions and crazy ideas that I seem to come up think about. I will do a different article where I will let everyone get to know me a bit more. Today however, let’s talk about something the media has been pushing since the end of the draft, and that is, did the Chiefs pay too much for Patrick Mahomes?
Like myself, you have likely seen dozens, if not hundreds (okay, I may be exaggerating), of articles talking about how trading up for Patrick Mahomes was a bad idea. I highly disagree with this sentiment from the mainstream media; when is there ever a good time to trade up for a quarterback if it is not the situation Kansas City currently has? We aren’t currently a dysfunctional team and have a quarterback in Alex Smith that is winning for us, so there is no real pressure for Mahomes to start, other than the fake demands the media and some fans will put on the team.
Even if Smith gets hurt, we have a backup in Tyler Bray, who has been in the system for years now and should be able to at least get us by for a game. There is nothing to reinforce this thought of Bray aside from the fact that I trust Andy Reid to be able to get the most out of him. Look at how much production he could get out of guys like Kevin Kolb, Jeff Garcia, and an old Michael Vick.
Why is everyone condemning this move?
Well, let’s first look at the draft value chart to see just how much we spent to go up and get our guy. There are multiple versions of this, so if you go and look for yourself, the numbers may vary a bit. Pro Football Focus’s chart has the tenth overall pick in the draft sitting at 1,300 points, while our first round pick for 2017 was only 680 points, so let’s assume that we’ll finish 27th again next season and double that number. That brings us to a total of 1,360 points which is already exceeding what we needed, but we threw some icing on this cake and added another 136 points with our third round pick (91 overall) bringing the total to 1,496 points. These picks together were worth just a bit more than the eighth overall pick in the 2017 draft which valued at 1,400 points.
That is a lot of draft capital, and I know some of you are probably thinking it was too much for a quarterback who cannot even set his feet to throw just about every time the ball leaves his cannon of an arm.
Also, historically, trading up for a quarterback is not something that works out very well; if we look at the recent history of teams doing this we see that teams traded up into the first round to grab the following quarterbacks: Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, RG3, Blaine Gabbert, Tim Tebow, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Brady Quinn and Jay Cutler.
Looking at this list may make you want to throw up because the success rate here is terrible, as only one of these QBs has been able to lead a team to a Super Bowl win. Granted, two of those players were rookies, so the book is still out on them, which makes this a bit better, but not by much. With history on their side, what makes the Chiefs’ situation different from any of those teams?
First, we have Andy Reid, who the league has called a quarterback whisperer for years. He is a coach who has proven to have the ability to get production out of very mediocre quarterbacks. His shaping of quarterbacks like Donavan McNabb and Brett Favre, helping them during their Hall of Fame careers, makes me optimistic that we can get the most out of Mahomes starting next season.
Second, how many teams are in a position like the Chiefs currently are? I touched on the quarterback position, but in general, the roster does not have many overall holes. We have an offensive line that is young and starting to gel together, and they are all locked up for the next couple seasons. Then, you can add in a defense which rated as having a top three secondary last season by PFF and only allowed the sixth-most points per game in the NFL after facing the Falcons, Saints, Raiders and Steelers twice, the second time around not even allowing a single touchdown against the Steelers. They did all of this with a substantially decreased pass rush, since they were missing Justin Houston for most of the year, had a declining Tamba Hali, and Dee Ford, who got out to a hot start last season but did not record a sack after week nine.
After considering just that right there, it raises the question if most of our draft picks are locks to make the roster because of the competition at those positions, namely in the secondary and at the wide receiver position. This roster is full of talent, and when most teams are trading up to get a quarterback, they are in desperate need of one and are looking for a generational talent like Andrew Luck, which is something that the Chiefs do not have to worry about for at least one more season.
Drafting a quarterback was the best move
What made me think this? Simply, all signs were pointing to it before the draft. After this upcoming season, the Chiefs are going to have a lot of decisions to make. A few of the bigger decisions are going to be getting rid some of the older players on the team which includes long-time favorites Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson. I am emotionally preparing myself to see one, or both, retire or be cut after this season because their cap hits are just too high for the Chiefs to be able to carry.
Taking a quick look at Over the Cap, we see that Tamba Hali is carrying a cap hit of $8.5 million next season, with only $1.5 million in dead cap if he is released. If we also cut DJ, who is has a $10 million hit with only $2.2 million in dead cap, we would gain $15 million in cap space. Now $15 million is not a lot overall, but we also owe Alex Smith $20 million next season. As much as I love Smith, he is not worth that much money.
So, what would happen if we cut him as well? We would gain another $17 million in cap space, bringing us to a total of $32 million. We’ve all seen the wonders that John Dorsey can do while being strapped for cash, so can you imagine what he would do with that much money? I’ll leave that to your imagination, but this team would be in prime position for a Super Bowl push if Dorsey can fill any holes we would have at that point with free agent players, even if we are starting a second-year quarterback who has never taken a snap in the NFL. I
t is possible that he uses most of it to lock up some of our better players as well, such as Marcus Peters, who will only get more expensive by the season. I believe that Dorsey will look to extend him early or Mitch Morse, whose contract ends at the end of the 2018 season.
Lastly, this move for Mahomes has given the Chiefs the most valuable thing in the NFL these days, and that is having your starting quarterback on a rookie contract. Look at the Raiders and the Seahawks, who essentially showed how this benefits your team. One of those teams went to two Super Bowls and won one, just barely losing the other, while the other has been able to stockpile tons of talent and return to playoff contention.
At the end of the day, was trading up for Patrick Mahomes worth it? Absolutely, he is walking into the best situation he could have asked for, and instead of being the first piece to the puzzle of winning a Super Bowl, he is instead looking like that last piece this team needed to get over the hump.
Dorsey wanted to ensure that the Chiefs stay competitive for years to come, so he went out and got his guy. If Dorsey is right, which he has been on a few different occasions now, we will be watching a rising star next season with a great cast around him, and hopefully, the Chiefs will be hoisting a Lombardi trophy here in the near future.