The NFL is in a new era of quarterbacks. I'd argue that over the past five years, we've seen a bigger turnover in who are the best quarterbacks in the league than any other similar time frame from the last 30 years.
That may seem a little extreme, but I dug up NFL.com's Week 1 QB Index from the 2019 season. It's a list of which quarterbacks the panel had the most faith in going into week one just five years ago. Here's their top ten:
- Patrick Mahomes
- Aaron Rodgers
- Russell Wilson
- Tom Brady
- Philip Rivers
- Matt Ryan
- Drew Brees
- Deshaun Watson
- Carson Wentz
- Ben Roethlisberger
We all know the NFL can stand for "Not For Long", but there has definitely been an extreme changing of the guard at quarterback over the past five years. Patrick Mahomes was new to the top spot on the list coming off his absurd first season as a starter the year before. Other than that, the quarterback top ten has completely turned over other than 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers trying to cling to a spot.
So with that in mind, let's count down the best quarterbacks in the NFL for the 2024 season. I based this ranking on a few main things:
- This is just for the 2024 season, so while I may love the long-term upside of some young quarterbacks much more than some veterans, this is about who I think will play better this coming season.
- This ranking is based on where I would rank a quarterback if they are healthy and play all season. Some of these QBs come with greater injury risks, but that becomes tricky to account for if you factor it in.
- For the handful of teams where there is some question as to who will be the starter, I ranked them as a combined duo instead of individuals so there are exactly 32 spots (one for each team) in these rankings.
- I've broken the rankings into six different tiers where I think the players are pretty close and wouldn't fight you if you wanted to change the order around a little.
Let's kick things off with the bottom tier.
Tier 6: The Bottom Tier (25-32)
This tier is comprised of teams that recently drafted a young quarterback that is likely to go through some growing pains or has a veteran starting that most expect to be replaced soon.
32. Bo Nix / Jarrett Stidham - Denver Broncos
Jarrett Stidham is not viewed as a starting-caliber NFL quarterback and most people felt that Bo Nix was a big reach in the first round of the draft. So the Broncos are either starting a backup-caliber player this season or turning the reigns over to Nix. Either way, expectations shouldn't be high.
31. Bryce Young - Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young wasn't good as a rookie. You can certainly argue that he was set up for failure by his coaching staff and lack of weapons, but you can also argue that there is no guarantee that those same things will be much better this season.
30. Gardner Minshew / Aidan O'Connell - Las Vegas Raiders
As a rookie Aidan O'Connell wasn't awful, but he looked like a guy that could start if you need him to, but should probably be more of a high end QB2. Then they went out and signed Gardner Minshew in the offseason who's the type of quarterback that can start if you need him to, but should probably be more of a high end QB2.
29. Jacoby Brissett / Drake Maye - New England Patriots
I went back and forth on who to rank higher between Brissett and Maye and the Minnesota Vikings duo who is at 28. I actually like the Patriots guys slightly better as players, but I think the supporting cast for the Vikings is so much better that I gave them the nod because they're set up for success.
28. Sam Darnold / J.J. McCarthy - Minnesota Vikings
I went back and forth on who to rank higher between Darnold and McCarthy and the Patriots duo who is at 29. I actually like the Patriots guys slightly better as players, but I think the supporting cast for the Vikings is so much better that I gave them the nod because they're set up for success.
27. Daniel Jones - New York Giants
This is Jones last stand to prove he should be a starter in the NFL. Jones has played average at times in his career, but it feels like the Giants are just biding time until they replace him. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Drew Lock is given the keys to the offense at some point this season.
26. Will Levis - Tennessee Titans
I'm not a big believer in Will Levis, but he did show flashes last season once he took over as the starter. The Titians have given his some weapons to work with too, so he has a chance to prove he should be higher in these rankings.
25. Derek Carr - New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr is certainly the most experienced and "proven" of the starting options in this bottom tier, but it feels like his time as a starter in the NFL is nearing its end. While the Saints don't have a better option for this season, don't be surprised if they give Spencer Rattler a shot late in the season if they're out of the playoff hunt.
Now we move to the "opposite directions"" tier.
Tier 5: The Opposite Directions Tier (18-24)
This tier is composed of three young quarterbacks with tremendous upside who could absolutely take off this season and three veterans that are just trying to prove that they should remain starters in the league.
24. Russell Wilson / Justin Fields - Pittsburgh Steelers
I believe that Russell Wilson will get time to prove he's the starter for the Steelers. I think they want a veteran quarterback to control the clock, take a few shots downfield, and let the defense keep them close. Fields has more upside, but I think Wilson's style fits what they want to do even if it isn't that exciting.
23. Jaylon Daniels - Washington Commanders
I don't know if Daniels can become an above-average NFL passer, but his explosive running ability gives him a really high ceiling. Since these rankings are based on where I would put them if they're healthy all season, that eliminated one of my biggest concerns with him. Washington has some weapons for him to work with in the passing game and his legs will do the rest.
22. Deshaun Watson - Cleveland Browns
I wanted to put Watson in the bottom tier because I'm not a fan of his (for obvious reasons) and he's been a mess since he came back from his suspension. He does have some weapons to work with and has shown he can be a slightly below-average starter since he returned and that's about where this ranking slots him. Maybe this is the year he returns to his early form, but I hope not.
21. Baker Mayfield - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If you look at other quarterback power rankings you'll usually find Baker Mayfield a few slots higher than this, but I'm just not a believer. I think last season represents the best you can expect from him and that's just an average at best starter. You can get by with him, but there isn't much of a ceiling there.
20. Caleb Williams - Chicago Bears
This might seem high to some for a rookie who has never taken a snap in the NFL, but based on what we saw from Williams in college, I would feel better about him as my starter this season than everyone else before him on this list. He may have a lower floor than someone like Baker this season, but I also think his ceiling is much higher.
19. Anthony Richardson - Indianapolis Colts
You can repost what I just said about Williams' upside here for Richardson, but we actually got to see him at the NFL level for a few games last season. His physical rushing upside is higher than anyone else in the league right now and since these rankings are based on whether they are healthy for the full season that takes away my biggest concern for Richardson.
18. Geno Smith - Seattle Seahawks
Smith has a slightly higher ceiling as a pure passer than Baker Mayfield, which is why I've got him edging out high-upside guys like Williams and Richardson in this tier. I do think Smith needs to play well this season if he wants to keep his job as a starter in the NFL.
Next up, the middle tier.
Tier 4: The Middle Tier (13-17)
This tier is made up of guys that are either highly productive in great systems despite some limitations or still have high upside, but we haven't seen them break through just yet.
17. Kirk Cousins - Atlanta Falcons
Kirk Cousins has proven he can be an average to above-average starter in the NFL if he's in a good system and has a good supporting cast. He definitely has a talented young cast around him in Atlanta. He has a chance to outperform this spot in the rankings, but he'll be 36 by the start of the season and the Falcons would probably be wise not to ask him to do too much.
16. Jared Goff - Detroit Lions
I think having Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff in the middle two spots of the power rankings is about perfect. Goff gets the slight edge because he's younger and in a little more proven situation, but he still has limitations and struggles outside in the elements. Those limitations haven't stopped him from putting up great numbers in Detroit and he should do that again next season.
15. Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins
Tua is a part of the Cousins and Goff club, but he's the youngest of the trio and I like his processing speed the best of the three. He'll likely have another highly productive season in Miami, but come playoff time he'll likely struggle to create plays on his own and like Goff, struggles outside in the elements.
14. Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars
We're still waiting for Lawrence to deliver on the potential everyone saw in him coming out of college. He's been an average NFL quarterback the past couple of seasons, but still hasn't taken the step into the elite category. He has the upside to be far better than the other quarterbacks in this tier, but thus far he hasn't been able to match them from a production standpoint.
13. Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals
I'm higher on Kyler than almost any ranking you'll see. I think Murray showed that when he had a true #1 wideout like DeAndre Hopkins, he could be a dangerous passer and a dangerous runner. Now he has an elite wideout again in Marvin Harrison Jr. and a great short-range weapon in tight end Trey McBride. If I was picking a quarterback from this tier to win me games this season and injuries aren't part of the equation, I'm taking Kyler.
Next we have the tier I struggled with the most.
Tier 3: The Almost Elite Tier (5-12)
I've changed the order of the eight quarterbacks in this tier about ten times since I started making this list. So if you're furious that I ranked one of these guys over the other, just know that I have them all extremely close and think any one of them could potentially have a standout year that elevates them above the rest.
12. Dak Prescott - Dallas Cowboys
I struggle with what to do with Dak. He puts up great numbers and the Cowboys offense is built around him, but he just can't seem to elevate his team enough when it counts. The NFC has been open for the taking over the past few years, and he hasn't been able to take advantage. He's a top-ten regular-season quarterback, but his lack of postseason success pushes him to the bottom of this tier.
11. Brock Purdy - San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy's play last season warrants a top-ten spot in the power rankings, but I'm going to need to see it one more time before I move him ahead of the guys above him on this list. Purdy is ahead of the other "system quarterbacks" on this list like Goff and Tua because of how he showed an ability to create when the play breaks down in the playoffs last year. If he does that again this season he'll climb in these rankings.
10. Jalen Hurts - Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts was in my top five quarterbacks following his run to the Super Bowl during the 2022 season, but he regressed a lot as a passer last season. Maybe that was because of the change in offensive coordinator or maybe it was because he was battling injuries most of the year, but he's got something to prove this season. He could elevate himself back into the top five or fall into the bottom half of the rankings based on his play.
9. Jordan Love - Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love's play during the second half of last season gave Packers fans reason to believe that they may have found another star to continue the tradition of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. We've seen other quarterbacks not be able to live up to the promise they showed, so his spot in the top ten isn't locked in, but if he builds off what we saw last season he could continue to climb even higher.
8. C.J. Stroud - Houston Texans
Take what I just said about Jordan Love and bump it up one notch for C.J. Stroud. Stroud was fantastic as a rookie, but we've seen the sophomore slump happen to more than one quarterback. If Stroud can prove his rookie year wasn't a fluke or even build off of it he could be destined for a spot in the top five.
7. Aaron Rodgers - New York Jets
Since we are assuming a healthy season out of everyone on this list, I'm giving Rodgers the benefit of the doubt here. Rodgers is 40, so there are legit questions about if he can physically play at an elite level anymore, but the last time we saw a healthy Rodgers he still had it. Does he have one last run left in him? We'll find out.
6. Matt Stafford - Los Angeles Rams
Once again, we're assuming a healthy season with this ranking. Stafford is underrated when it comes to his physical tools. Yes, he's 36, but he still has a good arm, is a proven winner, has great receivers, and a great offensive playcaller. While he may not have the elite upside of most of the other guys in this tier he's also the one I think has the highest floor (assuming he's healthy).
5. Justin Herbert - Los Angeles Chargers
This ranking is based on the eye test for me. I still believe Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He had a down year last year because of the system and his weapons, but his ability is still off the charts. His critics will say he still hasn't proven anything, but I'm a believer. He may not put up obscene numbers with Jim Harbaugh running the Chargers, but I think we'll see elite play when he does throw the ball and I expect them to be a much mentally tougher team under Harbaugh.
Now we get to the truly elite tier.
Tier 2: The Elite Tier (2-4)
4. Joe Burrow - Cincinnati Bengals
I think there is a good chance that injury issues could keep Burrow from achieving this spot this season, but assuming he's actually healthy, it's hard to keep him out of the elite tier. He's put up great numbers and has proven he can win big games, including in the playoffs. He hasn't been able to add a Super Bowl yet, but he does have the most success against the top name on this list of any active QB.
3. Lamar Jackson - Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson is a two-time MVP and one of the most dynamic rushing quarterbacks that the NFL has ever seen. Under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken there were signs of expanding their passing game too which makes him even more dangerous. The only thing stopping Jackson from having a Hall of Fame caliber resume is a Super Bowl, but he hasn't been able to get past the top name on the list to make that happen.
2. Josh Allen - Buffalo Bills
The #2 spot on this list is a coin flip between Jackson and Josh Allen. Both are physical freaks, but in different ways. Allen is more of a powerhouse runner compared to the more dynamic Jackson. I gave Allen the edge because I feel like he's a little more accomplished as a passer and has carried his team to a few more playoff wins, even though he also hasn't been able to get past the quarterback who is in a tier all of his own.
Tier 1: The Patrick Mahomes Tier (1)
1. Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs
Even among the elite quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes is in a tier of his own. He's a three time Super Bowl champion, three time Super Bowl MVP, two time NFL MVP, and a six time Pro Bowler (in six seasons as a starter). He's put up massive numbers and found ways to win "ugly". He's done it all and is the current gold standard for NFL quarterbacks.
So there you have it. Those are my 2024 NFL offseason quarterback power rankings. Who is too high? Who is too low? Who belongs in a different tier all together? You can find me on X (formerly Twitter) @LyleGraversen if you want to share your thoughts. You can also check out my 2024 Offseason Composite Power Rankings if you missed those last week.