For all of the attention on free agency and which players might receive deals on the open market, it's important to also keep in mind that a new range of players can also get paid this offseason with the arrival of a new round of contract seasons. That means the Kansas City Chiefs might be offering up more contracts than expected this spring.
The signing of a contract year player to an extension can be a smart move not only to establish long-term security at an important position but also to free up money in the interim. Most long-term deals are backlogged on purpose, to take advantage of a rising salary cap while freeing up cap space in the present time for other short-term work.
Let's look at the Chiefs players who make the most sense for some contractual talks this spring. Who might general manager Brett Veach want to keep around? Let's start with a steady leg.
Harrison Butker
If 2023 was a "normal" year for Harrison Butker, just wait and see what he's got for the Chiefs in a contract season in 2024.
During a season in which the Chiefs offense struggled from front to back to put points on the board, it was the perfect season for Harrison Butker to turn in the performance of a lifetime with an unbelievable season marked by incredible accuracy and booming leg strength. In fact, it's insane that he didn't run away with a first-team All-Pro nod given his productivity this year for the Chiefs.
This year, Butker converted a career-high mark of 94% of his field goal attempts and even made a 60-yard attempt against the Denver Broncos in October. His only misses were from 30 or so yards out, while every single attempt from 40 or more was perfect. Not only this but Butker made every single extra point attempt as well.
Not only is Butker automatic as a scoring machine, but a whopping 87 percent of his kickoffs went for touchbacks in 2023. Simply put, Butker is a well-rounded weapon who never leaves points on the board.
In terms of an extension, Butker has been here before back in 2019 in his third season with the team and even then, he was a model of consistency for Dave Toub's units. Back then he earned just over $4 million per season on a five-year deal.
What could Butker receive?
In 2022, the Atlanta Falcons gave Younghoe Koo a five-year deal worth $24 million and Graham Gano got a three-year deal one year later from the New York Giants worth just over $5M per season. It makes sense for Butker to get the best of both, so we're guessing a five-year contract extension worth up to $27M with $20M guaranteed would get it done.
Creed Humphrey
Of all of the potential candidates up for an extension, Creed Humphrey feels like the most obvious, most popular, and the most likely.
The Chiefs originally took Humphrey in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft along with Missouri linebacker Nick Bolton. For years, the Chiefs had gone with league-average talent at center and Brett Veach's quest to remake the offensive line with the signing of Joe Thuney was aided by the selection of an All-American performer like Humphrey out of Oklahoma.
The Chiefs' starting center has been a huge step up from the days of Austin Reiter in the heart of the offensive line, and Humphrey's elite-level blend of instincts, intelligence, technique, and strength brought to mind the best of Rodney Hudson and Mitch Morse from the past decade.
These days, Humphrey is known as the best center in the NFL who is not a member of the Kelce family. He's already made two Pro Bowls in three seasons and it feels like as long as he stays healthy, he could walk away from the game as one of the most decorated linemen in Chiefs history—a tall order for a team that has multiple HOF linemen in its history.
What could Humphrey receive?
This should break the bank, although you have to wonder whether the Chiefs are concerned about the low snaps that plagued the offense late in the year. If they're ready to commit, they have to start with a timeline of five years since Erik McCoy and Corey Linsley both received that level of commitment from their respective teams.
As for money, Jason Kelce received slightly north of $14 million for a single season while the Detroit Lions rewarded Frank Ragnow with an average annual value of $13.5M. Take Humphrey to the $14M level for multiple seasons and you've set a new market threshold: a 5-year, $70M deal with $40-45M guaranteed.
Nick Bolton
The Chiefs came into the '23 season with an abundance of young talent at linebacker after making successive Day 2 draft picks multiple years in a row. This coming offseason, however, will present the Chiefs with the challenge of seeing that talent leave the nest—at least in part.
Instead of coasting into a new year with Willie Gay Jr., Nick Bolton, Leo Chenal, and Drue Tranquill forming the deepest nucleus of talent at linebacker in years for the Chiefs, Steve Spagnuolo could easily find himself with only Bolton and Chenal when the dust settles on free agency. That might cause general manager Brett Veach to want to sign Bolton for the long-term.
Bolton was the team's first of two second-round picks back from the 2021 NFL Draft (along with Humphrey, whose case we've already discussed), and he immediately took on the role as the team's best tackler overall.
Bolton is not without his weaknesses, but he's the heart and soul of the defense as a leader and communicator who makes everyone around him better. His instincts are elite, even at an NFL level, and his experience should only take him further as he enters his third season in K.C.
Perhaps the Chiefs will want to see how Bolton rebounds a bit from an injury-plagued season (after missing several games with a wrist injury). Bolton had 7 missed tackles in 8 games, only 3 less than he had after playing all of last season. Given his liabilities in coverage, if he's going to slip at all as a tackler, there are some question marks. That said, given his reliability in the past, his youth, and his postseason showing, Bolton is still a very good long-term bet.
What could Bolton receive?
If the Chiefs want to get ahead of things for Bolton, who could find prices rising with a first Pro Bowl appearance this coming season, a deal in the range of Matt Milano of the Buffalo Bills would make sense. It makes no sense for the Chiefs to pay Roquan Smith money ($20M/season) or even Tremaine Edmunds ($17M+) since those guys are more decorated, but Milano's AAV in the $14M neighborhood should get something done.
Four years at $14.5M or so per season is a guess, but it really depends on how much the Chiefs value play in the second level if they're also not spending on Chris Jones up front or L'Jarius Sneed in back. Positionally we will find out a lot about what the Chiefs value in the next year or so with their long-term contracts
Trey Smith
Any attention given to the future of the Chiefs offensive line is typically on Creed Humphrey and even Trey Smith is likely to admit that's understandable. After all, Humphrey only needed a few months of experience at the NFL level to be labeled alongside the best at the position. However, Smith himself has a strong case for consideration of a contract extension.
Smith was an unbelievable find for the Chiefs in the sixth round fo the 2021 NFL Draft. His medical red flags at the time have been well-documented in telling his story, but suffice it to say, the Chiefs doctors and trainers were not only right about his ability to stay healthy playing football but the team's scouts knew he had the goods to play as well.
Since being taken in that sixth round, Smith has been a day-one starter for the Chiefs at right guard for the last three seasons—with 50 regular season starts during that span. Up front, he provides a powerful mauling presence for the Chiefs. While he profiles better as a run blocker than a pass blocker, the truth is that he's still growing at both and is an above average starter on the right side all-around.
If not for the presence of Humphrey in the same draft, Smith would be an even much bigger story for the Chiefs and an obvious call for an extension.
What could Smith receive?
Will other teams be reticent to sign Smith on the open market for the same reasons they avoided drafting him? That will be interesting to see how medicals play out four years later. If so that will affect the market and could help the Chiefs (but that would also feel wrong since Smith has looked the part so far without issues in K.C.).
Smith is not an elite player at this point, but he's a very good guard who is exactly the sort of punishing presence and finisher you want up front on the line. That might keep him from hitting Chirs Lindstrom numbers (a.k.a. Joe Thuney money) but Nate Davis sounds about right. Last year, the Titans let Davis his the open market and Chicago offered him a 3-year, $30M deal to change teams. That feels right on a four-year deal for Trey Smith, so we'll stick with a $10M/year range.