The 2023 NFL season is finally here! Kansas City Chiefs football is back as they begin their quest to defend their Super Bowl LVII. The hungry Detroit Lions aim to upset the defending champs and open their season with a victory. Kickoff is on Thursday night at 7:20 p.m. C.T. on NBC.
This is the first of eight regular-season games hosted by the Chiefs at Arrowhead this season. This is also the first time the Lions have visited Kansas City since December 14, 2003. This is the end of the longest active streak where one team hasn't visited another team's home stadium.
Let's preview tonight's game, featuring key numbers, an in-depth analysis, and much more.
What you need to know
- Star Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones has yet to report to the team and will miss tonight's game.
- Tight end Travis Kelce left practice early on Tuesday due to a knee injury (reportedly a bone bruise). He was listed as questionable on yesterday's injury report.
- The Lions are coming off a 9-8 season in 2022. Although they did not make playoffs, they did win eight of their final ten games to finish the year.
- Tonight is the first of two Thursday Night games the Chiefs will host this season (Week 6 against Denver). It's also one of six scheduled primetime appearances for the Chiefs.
Key numbers
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has faced the Lions once in his career (a 34-30 victory in 2019). Lions QB Jared Goff has faced the Chiefs once in his career (a 54-51 win in the classic Monday Night Football game between the Chiefs and Rams).
- Andy Reid boasts a commanding 5-1 record in his coaching career against Detroit, which includes a 2-0 record with the Chiefs. Meanwhile, Lions coach Dan Campbell, in his brief tenure as head coach, has yet to play the Chiefs.
- The Chiefs are 9-1 in opening week games against the Andy Reid, including 3-1 at home.
- Detroit was 4th in offensive yards per game in 2022 and 5th in points per game.
- The Lions were 32nd in yards allowed on defense last season and were tied for 28th in scoring defense.
Chiefs Offense versus the Lions Defense
The Chiefs have ranked in the Top 5 in scoring offense and/or total offense every year in the Patrick Mahomes era. The Lions have been in the Bottom 5 in points allowed and/or yards allowed each of the past four seasons.
On paper, the advantage lies with Kansas City. There are few teams that can match up defensively against the Chiefs. They have star players like Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, head coach Andy Reid, and a strong offensive line.
The problem for Kansas City is that Kelce might not be able to play tonight. There is some hope that he'll suit up since it's reportedly a bone bruise, but nothing is known yet. If he is inactive, then there will be pressure on young receivers, such as Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney. The Chiefs will also rely upon veterans Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Noah Gray to step up.
The Chiefs should also use their offensive line to their advantage by running the football more. Their offensive line is one of their most talented units and will never be overmatched.
While the Lions had a bad defense last season, there were some bright spots in their pass rush. Aidan Hutchinson racked up an impressive 9.5 sacks as a rookie. Fellow rookie James Houston recorded 8 sacks in the final 7 games of the season. Charles Harris, a Kansas City native and Mizzou alumnus, also had a strong 2021 season before an injury sidelined him in 2022.
Despite Detroit's talented pass rush, Patrick Mahomes will likely not face significant pressure. The Chiefs boast a great offensive line, with Donovan Smith at left tackle being the only potential weak link. Unless Hutchinson goes off, the Lions' pass rush isn't likely to alter the course of the game.
The Lions' secondary struggled all last season. They traded former Top 3 pick Jeff Okudah to Atlanta after he failed to meet expectations. They also had many rookies playing significant snaps at safety and cornerback. Detroit signed defensive backs C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Cameron Sutton, and Emmanuel Moseley in free agency. They also drafted safety Brian Branch in the second round. Second-year safety Kerby Joseph and third-year cornerback Jerry Jacobs are also both expected to take the next step.
Even with these improvements, the Chiefs still hold the upper hand in this matchup. If Kelce plays, the passing offense should remain a force to be reckoned with. Without Kelce, a group of talented wide receivers and Andy Reid's play-calling should create plenty of opportunities for Patrick Mahomes.
Linebacker is an intriguing position for the Lions. Malcolm Rodriguez was a standout rookie in 2022 and first-round pick Jack Campbell had an impressive preseason.
In the end, while Aaron Glenn is a solid defensive coordinator for the Lions, facing off against Andy Reid's offensive prowess is a big ask. Considering Detroit's defensive struggles last year, the Chiefs should score a lot tonight. If Kelce is unable to go, then the Chiefs may be in some trouble. But they still have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, which is what matters most in the end.
Chiefs Defense versus the Lions Offense
This side of the ball will determine the outcome of the game. Without a doubt, the Detroit Lions' strength lies in their offense.
In 2022, the Lions ranked as the 5th highest-scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 26.6 points per game. They were also 4th in yards per game, boasting an average of 380.
Within the Detroit offense, their standout asset is their offensive line. Left tackle Taylor Decker often flies under the radar and Penei Sewell is a rising star on the right side. Frank Ragnow also ranks among the NFL's top centers. Although their guards may have some vulnerabilities in pass protection, they excel in run blocking.
The Chiefs' greatest challenge will be along the defensive line without Chris Jones and Charles Omenihu. The main concern is that David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions' offensive line may exploit KC's defensive front in the run game. It would also allow Jared Goff more time to sit in the pocket. Without #95, the Chiefs will be without their best player on defense, affecting both run and pass defense.
Moreover, Jared Goff's performance varies based on the pressure he faces. In 2022, when pressured, Goff had a lowly 59.6 passer rating, ranking 29th out of 40 qualified quarterbacks. He also had 41.9% completion %, five touchdowns, and four interceptions when under pressure. When kept clean, his passer rating soared to 113.6, ranking 3rd out of 40 qualified quarterbacks, with 24 touchdowns and a mere 3 interceptions. Thus, generating pressure on Goff becomes crucial, but if the Chiefs can't, they must focus on tight coverage of the Lions' receivers.
Should Steve Spagnuolo opt for a blitz-heavy approach to generate pressure, caution is necessary. Goff had a 104.4 passer rating against the blitz in 2022, ranking 8th out of 41 qualified quarterbacks.
The Lions also have one of the NFL's most underrated wide receivers in Amon-Ra St. Brown. He's a legitimate number-one target who amassed over 1,100 yards and 6 touchdowns despite missing a game last season. Beyond St. Brown, the Lions' receiving corps and tight end options are not particularly stacked. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta shows promise but may not be an immediate impact player. Wide receiver Jameson Williams is suspended. Depth receivers Marvin Jones Jr., Josh Reynolds, and Kalif Raymond are serviceable but shouldn't pose significant challenges for the Chiefs' cornerbacks.
In summary, don't expect the Chiefs to make many stops on defense tonight. Nonetheless, they have the potential to make crucial plays, even in the absence of Chris Jones. Given the Lions' potent offense, Kansas City may need to score a lot of points, likely in the 30s, to secure a victory in this game.
Chiefs vs Lions: The Bottom Line
We should expect an explosive matchup between two elite offenses and two defenses with their fair share of questions.
As of press time, the over/under for this game is set at about 53 points (depending on the source). I'm pretty confident that we'll witness at least 53 points tonight, even if Travis Kelce is out. It wouldn't be surprising if we hit at least 53 points even before the fourth quarter begins.
The last time Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff faced off, it resulted in a 105-point thriller. I have a strong feeling that tonight's game won't be too different.
For the Chiefs to win, they can't afford a sluggish start on offense. Detroit's formidable offensive line can help them control the clock late in the game, especially with no Chris Jones. The Chiefs might not be able to stop it.
The possibility of being without their second and third-best players presents a challenge, even for a team as great as the Chiefs. Both the offense and defense are weakened, a situation that is less than ideal when up against a formidable opponent like Detroit.
On the flip side, one team has Patrick Mahomes, while the other has one playoff victory in the Super Bowl era. One team has a future Hall of Fame head coach, while the other has a coach known for baking and biting kneecaps. While it won't be a walk in the park for the Chiefs, they should win this game and open the season with a 1-0 record. They'll continue their strong tradition of success in Week 1, winning for the 10th time in 11 seasons.
Prediction: Chiefs win 37-30.