The NFL's draft season kicked into full swing this past week with the annual NFL Combine. The combine provides teams and draft prognosticators everywhere with one of the last key pieces of the NFL draft evaluation process. The Kansas City Chiefs find themselves with several positions of need this offseason and it just so happens that a few of those needs line up with positions of strength in the NFL draft where several players stood out at the combine this past week.
With this year's NFL Scouting Combine now in the books, I thought it would be a good time for a Chiefs mock draft.
For this mock I used Pro Football Focus's Mock Draft Simulator. There is no such thing as a perfect mock draft simulator. There are always prospects that I think won't be available at the picks they are, but it's a fun tool to use. To use a player in this official mock, he had to be available for two consecutive runs on the simulator.
So let's kick things off with my first pick, which I'm sure will not meet the approval of some Chiefs fans.
Round 1 - Pick #32 - Kingsley Suamataia - Offensive Tackle - BYU
Kingsley Suamataia transferred to BYU from Oregon after his redshirt freshman year. He then started at right tackle his first season and left tackle this past season. He is 6-foot-5 and 326 pounds with 34" arms (a measurement that Andy Reid has typically required of his starting tackles). He ran an impressive 5.06 forty-yard dash on Sunday at the combine and that athleticism comes through on his game tape as well.
While Suamataia isn't consistently mocked in the first round, his combination of size, power, and movement skills makes him an appealing option after the bigger names come off the board earlier in the first round. He's currently #35 of Arrowhead Addict's Big Board of prospects specifically for the Kansas City Chiefs.
I would be in favor of K.C. trading up in the first round if a tackle like Troy Fautanu of Washington or Amarius Mims of Georgia falls far enough for KC to move up to get them without breaking the bank. However, for my first mock, I decided to use only K.C.'s current picks without any trades. So let's focus on Suamataia a little more.
Suamataia is actually Penei Sewell's cousin and they have trained some together in the past. If that doesn't do it for you, he also has one of those jumping out of a swimming pool videos that shows off his freakish athleticism for a guy his size. Still not impressed? In his NFL combine presser, he revealed he can write with both hands. Okay, that last one doesn't have anything to do with football, but I found it interesting.
The bottom line here is that Suamataia's tape is full of the movement skills that tackles need to pass protect in the NFL and the power to move defenders in the run game. He needs some refinement in his technique and stance (he plays too upright at times), but I trust KC's coaches to get the best out of him and I think he has the tools to be the long-term solution at left tackle.
Now we're on to the second round.
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Round 2 - Pick #64 - Brandon Dorlus - Defensive Line - Oregon
At this point, some of you are fuming that the Chiefs haven't taken a wide receiver yet, but be patient. First, the Chiefs are going to address their shortage of players on the defensive line. I listed Dorlus' position above as defensive line, not specifically a tackle or end, because at Oregon he played all over the line. Does that sound like a trait that Steve Spagnuolo would appreciate?
That versatility may also be part of what keeps Dorlus from going earlier than pick 64 overall. At 6-foot-3 and 283 pounds, he's a bit of a "tweener". He's a little undersized for a defensive tackle and a little big to be an end, but that's never really been an issue for Spagnuolo. In the short term, Dorlus could provide some rotational snaps to fill in for Charles Omenihu while he recovers from his ACL injury. In the long term, he could be the interior pass-rushing heir to Chris Jones.
That's not to say that he has Chris Jones upside, but both his tape and his 4.85 forty time show some speed and explosiveness that could be developed and make him a strong interior pass rusher. Dorlus still needs to develop his pass rush moves and at times he struggles to disengage from blockers, but at the back of the second round, he would be a great addition to Spagnuolo's defensive line rotation.
Now it's finally time to add a player at wide receiver.
Round 3 - Pick #95 - Javon Baker - Wide Receiver - Central Florida
This is the first of several picks in this mock draft where I don't believe the player will still be available once we get to the actual NFL draft. However, if I can get a player I would be happy with the Chiefs taking in the second round in the third, I'm going to do it. While Javon Baker isn't one of the biggest name wide receivers in this draft, I think he might be one of the most underrated.
The plus side of Baker not running a blazing 40-yard dash time at the Combine this week (he ran a 4.54) is that it may allow him to continue to fly under the radar. Baker was a great deep threat in college, but it was more due to his ability to track the ball and go up and pluck it out of the air than his straight-line speed. Baker was effective when lined up both outside and in the slot and would give the Chiefs a much-needed quality route runner who can attack the intermediate part of the field.
While it was Baker's tape that I fell in love with, the analytics community loves him as well. In this wide receiver class, Baker is 1st in yards per reception, 2nd in EPA per play, 3rd in average depth of target, 3rd in yards per route run vs zone, 5th in yards per route run vs man, 3rd in yards after the catch per reception, and 3rd in receiving yards per team pass attempt. Simply put, he'd be a steal at the back of the third round.
I know some fans would prefer to draft a wideout sooner, but if K.C. signs a reliable veteran to pair with Rashee Rice in free agency, they can afford to address the trenches with their first two picks and then scoop up someone like Baker who fell because of how deep this wide receiver class is.
Now let's move on to K.C.'s fourth round selection.
Round 4 - Pick #133 - Cooper Beebe - Guard - Kansas State
I originally thought I might target an interior offensive lineman in the fifth round, but I simply couldn't pass up a player of Cooper Beebe's caliber in the fourth round. Maybe I'm biased because Beebe is a local prospect and I love his play style and attitude, but I simply can't fathom how he would still be available here. If he is, the Chiefs would be crazy not to take him as the future replacement for either Joe Thuney or Trey Smith.
I think Beebe's tape warrants a second-round pick. Yes, his arms are a little short and it sometimes causes him to not be able to reach and control his man as much as you would like, but when Beebe does get his hands on a defender his natural instinct is to bury them. There was some question about his athleticism, but he put that all to rest at the combine.
Beebe measured in at 6-foot-3 and 322 pounds with 31.5-inch arms (that's short). He ran a 5.03 forty and that, combined with strong showings in the broad jump, three cone, and short shuttle, has given him an elite 9.71/10 Raw Athletic Score (RAS). That kind of athleticism with good tape and a killer temperament and Beebe is a guy I want on my team. Period.
Now let's get to KC's two 5th round picks.
Round 5 - Pick #158 - Tyrone Tracy Jr. - Running Back - Purdue
While there aren't any elite running backs in this draft class, there are a ton of them who may hear their names called in the middle rounds. One of the most underrated of that group is Tyrone Tracy Jr. from Purdue. Tracy was originally a wide receiver at Iowa and only has one year of experience at running back, but he showed real promise at the position.
Tracy is 5-foot-11 and 209 pounds. As you can imagine, with his wide receiver background he is a major receiving threat both out of the backfield and as a weapon that could be motioned outside. He also has extensive experience as a kick and punt returner. As a mid-round pick, special teams upside is always a plus and Tracy has that.
Tracy cemented his draft stock at the combine where he was great across the board. His 9.87 RAS score ranks 24th out of 1,765 running back prospects dating back to 1987. His 4.48 forty time was good, but his 40-inch vertical, 4.06 second short shuttle, and 6.81 three cone were all 95th percentile or better at the position.
If the Chiefs can get an explosive running back with pass-catching ability and special teams experience in the mid-rounds I think that is a great use of a pick, especially with the potential loss of Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Round 5 - Pick #172 - Luke McCaffrey - Wide Receiver - Rice
Since I didn't take a wideout in the first two rounds I decided to double down on the position here with Luke McCaffrey out of Rice. McCaffrey is the younger brother of Christian McCaffrey and began his college career as a quarterback at Nebraska. As a quarterback, he had far more success as a rusher than he did as a passer. As a wideout, he is still a little raw, but he showed off some of his family's skillset at the combine this past weekend and definitely helped his draft stock. Did he boost it enough that he won't be available for K.C. at the end of the 5th round? Possibly, but it is a very deep receiving class.
The younger McCaffrey is 6-foot-1 and 198 pounds. McCaffrey also put up an elite RAS score off his Combine performance. His 4.46 second time in the 40 showed good straight-line speed and his 4.02 short shuttle and 6.7 three cone highlighted his change of direction skills. He also looked very smooth and comfortable in the pass-catching gauntlet drill. I see McCaffrey developing into a reliable slot receiver in the NFL.
If the Chiefs were to sign a solid veteran and then add both Javon Baker and Luke McCaffrey in the draft, I think they would be in fantastic shape at the position without having to spend one of their top two picks on the position.
Finally, let's look at K.C.'s final two picks.
Round 6 - Pick #210 - Daequan Hardy - Cornerback - Penn State
Some K.C. fans may not like the idea of drafting a smaller slot-only corner like Hardy. I understand that if L'Jarius Sneed leaves, K.C.'s best cornerback Trent McDuffie is at his best in the slot. However, if Sneed leaves it could also mean that McDuffie may occasionally need to shadow an outside receiver if the matchup calls for it. With Justin Watson and Joshua Williams playing pretty much exclusively on the outside, having a backup at the slot corner position makes sense to me.
Hardy's Combine performance may have boosted his stock enough that he goes a round or two before this, but at 5-foot-9 and 179 pounds he probably won't go until day three even with a Combine boost. That boost was due to his 4.39 forty time and amazing 42.5" vertical leap. His tape shows a guy who is solid covering out of the slot, isn't afraid to tackle, and has special teams experience. That sounds like a great 6th round pick to me.
Round 7 - Pick #250 - Tory Taylor - Punter - Iowa
The Chiefs signed Matt Araiza as the apparent replacement to Tommy Townsend at punter. While Araiza does have one of the strongest legs in football, he's been away from the game for the past year and you have to have more than just power to be a good NFL punter. If Araiza struggles to control his powerful leg it might not be a bad idea to bring in some competion for the job. What better competition than the best punter in college football?
I don't understand why Taylor is still available in the 7th round, but if he is I would definitely take him. He was a unanimous 1st team All-American, the Ray Guy winner for best punter in college football, had 40 punts of over 50 yards, and also put 32 punts inside the 20-yard line. This would give the Chiefs one of the best punter camp battles in the NFL—so much so that they would likely be able to flip the loser of the battle for a late-round pick next year (essentially recouping this pick while ensuring they have the best possible replacement for Townsend).
So there you have it Chiefs fans. That's my post-combine Chiefs mock draft. What do you think? What picks do you like? What picks do you hate? What picks do you think have no shot of being available? I'd love to hear your thoughts and am excited that NFL draft season is now officially in full swing.
You should also check out Price Carter's 8 prospects likely soaring up the Chiefs' draft board after the NFL Combine.