After Kansas City's Divisional Round victory over the Buffalo Bills last Sunday, there's both good and bad news. The good news is that the Chiefs are back in the AFC Championship Game. The bad news is that it won't be at Arrowhead this year. This time, they'll have to travel to Baltimore, Maryland to take on the Ravens for the right to hoist the Lamar Hunt Trophy and advance to Super Bowl LVIII.
Although the same thing was said last week, this game against the Ravens will be the Chiefs' toughest of the season so far. Part of what makes a Super Bowl run so difficult is that the games only get more difficult, never easier. Baltimore has the presumptive MVP, Lamar Jackson, on their team and their defense has been outstanding. If Kansas City is going to win this game and play in Super Bowl LVIII, they'll need to bring their A-game. Anything less will likely result in a defeat.
If the Chiefs are going to go into Baltimore and proceed to their fourth Super Bowl appearance in five years, here are the eleven most important things they'll need to do.
1. No mistakes
Another perennial point that is vital in this game. Given how strong the Ravens are, the Chiefs cannot afford to give them any freebies. No drive-killing drops or penalties. No giveaways. No botched kicks. No failure to challenge obvious missed calls. Nothing.
The Chiefs have to play a clean enough game to the point where one mistake by Baltimore could cost the Ravens the game. This is a matchup where a missed throw in the red zone or a goofy turnover could very well be lethal.
Other than a ridiculous fumble by Mecole Hardman (which resulted in a touchback), the Chiefs played about as clean of a game as one could realistically ask for. If they can do that again this week, minus the preventable giveaway, they'll have a strong chance to win.
2. Start fast
In previous years, the Chiefs have gotten off to slow starts and they were just fine. In the 2019-20 playoffs, they were down by double-digits in all three games but won the Super Bowl anyway. They trailed the Eagles 24-14 at halftime in Super Bowl LVII. That can't happen in this game.
The Ravens are a team that feasts on momentum, especially at home. Once they gain a significant lead, it's difficult to come back against them since their defense and running game are so strong.
The Chiefs need to play from ahead in this game. They can't allow the Ravens to go up by a touchdown early. If they win the coin toss, Kansas City should elect to take the ball, though they generally like to defer the choice to the second half.
If they start the game with the ball, go up 7-0, then force the Ravens to punt on their opening drive, a 10-0 or 14-0 lead will be enough to suck the energy out of M&T Bank Stadium. Given how riled up that stadium gets when Baltimore has a big lead, it might be too much even for Patrick Mahomes to overcome. A strong start is important in every game but is crucial in this one.
3. Limit the Ravens running game
Everyone who follows the NFL is aware that the Baltimore Ravens boast one of the most prolific rushing attacks in the NFL. They have a great blend of speed and power with Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Dalvin Cook, and Lamar Jackson.
The one true flaw of the Chiefs' defense is that they're not great at stopping the run. Including both regular season and postseason games, Kansas City ranks 21st in rushing yards allowed per game and 27th in yards per carry. They surrendered at least 150 yards on the ground twice in the last month, something the Ravens have done a whopping eight times.
After Buffalo gashed them for 182 yards in the Divisional Round, Steve Spagnuolo needs to emphasize getting stops on early down rushes. To his credit, once the Chiefs started getting more aggressive on first down and second down, the Bills had less success running the ball.
Against a team that has as much success running the football as Baltimore, it's unrealistic to expect the Chiefs to shut them down in that area, but they could limit it. If they can stuff the Ravens on just a couple of first-down runs in key situations, that will give Spagnuolo some liberty to be creative against Lamar Jackson. If the Chiefs cannot limit Baltimore's rushing attack in any way, it's unlikely that they'll go back to the Super Bowl.
4. Run the ball, especially out of spread formation
On the flip side, the Chiefs need to continue riding Isiah Pacheco and now Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Pacheco racked up 97 rushing yards on 15 carries, while CEH had 31 yards on just two carries.
Given that this Ravens defense is as complete as any in football, the Chiefs need to find and exploit any advantage they possibly can. The main two areas where the Baltimore D isn't elite are in run defense and tackling. PFF ($) graded the unit as the 19th tackling team in the NFL and they were 14th in rush yards/game and 25th in yards/carry in the regular season. This run defense can be beaten, though defensive linemen like Michael Pierce, Justin Madubuike, Travis Jones, and Jadeveon Clowney as well as linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen will be worthy adversaries.
Joe Thuney's injury and potential absence will be key in this game. Although backup Nick Allegretti isn't that much worse of a run-blocker, any disadvantage will be an issue for Kansas City in this game.
In addition, they need to run more out of spread formation. Andy Reid needs to spread the Baltimore defense out. This will force the Ravens to use lighter personnel, which can be an issue for them as they're more built to stop heavy personnel teams. Their secondary depth is not as strong as their depth in the front seven. Utilizing spread will make the Ravens take a linebacker off the field in favor of a defensive back and replace a run-stuffing defensive lineman with one more designed to rush the passer.
Spreading out the defense also makes it more difficult for them to disguise blitzes and coverages, which is a Mike Macdonald specialty. If the Chiefs use more jumbo or heavy formations, that will play right into Baltimore's hands.
The Chiefs don't need to come out and rush for well over 100 yards in this matchup, but creating more 2nd and shorts/mediums will keep the Ravens pass rush on their toes and allow Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to retain some control in this game. Lining up in spread formation will also make it more difficult to fool Patrick Mahomes at the LOS and will make it easier to make the necessary adjustments before the snap.
5. Don't allow Lamar Jackson to scramble, but if he does, make him move horizontally
It's not a secret that Lamar Jackson is one of the best running quarterbacks in today's NFL. His mix of speed and elusiveness is a rare skill set in a passer.
One thing that's been observed by many NFL analysts is that Jackson is a much better vertical scrambler than he is a horizontal one. This means that he's more dangerous running straight ahead than he is shuffling to the side since he can't accelerate as much moving side to side.
Containing Jackson in the pocket will be critical in this game. That isn't because he's a poor thrower, he's going to win another MVP for a reason, but the Chiefs are more likely to get burned by Jackson's legs than his arm. Kansas City has a more than good enough secondary to cover Baltimore's receivers reasonably well, but when Lamar Jackson scrambles, it's very difficult to stop.
The Chiefs need to be disciplined in preventing rushing lanes from opening up when Lamar Jackson drops back. They should also place a spy on him for most of the game. Willie Gay might return for this game from a neck injury and he's a perfect spy. If he can't go, then Leo Chenal would also work. He's athletic and is one of the best tacklers on the team.
Stopping Jackson from scrambling is much easier said than done. He's one of the most prolific running quarterbacks in NFL history and has run for at least 30 yards in 15 of his 17 games this season and at least 40 yards in 11 games. There's not much that even an elite defense like Kansas City can do.
If he were to scramble, the Chiefs must force him toward the sideline instead of straight ahead. It'll make it easier to catch him and he's not as strong throwing on the move as Patrick Mahomes is.
A huge part of winning this game for Kansas City is preventing Lamar Jackson from doing what he's best known for and that will be exceptionally challenging. If they can succeed in doing so, they'll have a strong chance of limiting a prolific Baltimore offense.
6. Continue to feed Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice
Last week, I wrote about how a non-Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice receiver needs to step up. Of course, that still holds this week, but in a game like this, the Chiefs need their best players to be their best players.
Kelce and Rice both had strong games, but many have claimed that the main reason the former had a strong game was due to Buffalo's injuries. While the injuries may have played a role, Kelce was running as clean of routes as he has in a long time and his demeanor has been as encouraging as it's been all season.
Rashee Rice is no longer a traditional rookie. He's the bona fide top wide receiver for this team and he needs to play like it.
This can't be a game where one of Kelce or Rice disappear for a long stretch and Patrick Mahomes is forced to target his reliable options, such as Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, and Mecole Hardman.
In the most important games of the season, a team's best players need to perform like their best players. That's true for Mahomes and it's also true for Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce.
7. Finish in the red zone
One of the biggest issues that the Chiefs have had this season on offense has been scoring touchdowns in the red zone. In both the regular season and postseason, the offense has scored a touchdown in 52.1% of red zone trips, ranking just 19th in the NFL. The Ravens are 6th at 63.0%. Through two playoff games, Kansas City has gone just 4 for 10. A 40% TD conversion rate in the red zone isn't going to cut it against a team like Baltimore.
So far this season, the Ravens surrendered a touchdown in just 40.8% of red zone trips, 2nd best in the NFL. The Chiefs' defense is 10th at 51.9%. Kansas City needs to turn that strength into a weakness for Baltimore.
Red zone conversion on both sides of the ball can easily be the difference between a win and a loss as well as a close win and a blowout. As great as Harrison Butker has been this year, Chiefs fans would prefer that he not step on the field in this game, with the obvious exception of extra points, kickoffs, and possibly the game-winning field goal attempt late in the fourth quarter or overtime. Getting three points instead of seven in the red zone may be catastrophic for Kansas City.
8. Force Lamar Jackson to make quick decisions
Lamar Jackson is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and should win his second MVP very soon. Despite that, he has had one flaw this season: quick decisions. According to Pro Football Focus ($), Jackson had the fifth longest time to throw out of 28 quarterbacks with at least 350 dropbacks.
When reviewing Jackson's stats before and after 2.5 seconds after the snap, it's clear which side he's better on. 2.5 seconds after the snap is a key benchmark since it's unreasonable to expect the offensive line to hold up forever.
From PFF ($), Jackson has been the best quarterback in the NFL (out of 28) on plays at least 2.5 seconds after the snap. He has the highest overall grade (93.9), passing grade (91.0), rushing grade (91.4), and passer rating (111.7) on plays at least 2.5 seconds after the snap.
Before the 2.5-second mark, things change for Jackson. On such plays, he has the 20th-best grade and 15th-best passer rating. His average depth of target drops from 13.1 to 5.1 yards on passes before 2.5 seconds.
It's abundantly clear that Steve Spagnuolo has to find a way to generate quick pressure in this game. I know every defensive coordinator wants to do that. but it's a necessity in this game. The longer that Lamar Jackson holds the ball, the more likely that a receiver will come open down the field and it's more likely that he'll scramble for a huge gain.
This needs to be a game where Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, and crew beat the Baltimore offensive line and generate pressure immediately. Both in the running and passing game, the defensive line needs to play one of its best games of the season, or else the Chiefs likely aren't going back to the Super Bowl.
9. The tackles need to hold up
The Ravens' defense led the NFL in sacks this season, so the offensive line must hold up in this game. With Joe Thuney not playing in this game, that will put much more pressure on the tackles: Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith.
Jawaan Taylor was given an $80M contract last March and so far he hasn't been worth it. Donovan Smith didn't have sky-high expectations, but it's fair to say that he's played as well as expected. Neither player had a strong performance against Buffalo. Via PFF ($), both tackles were responsible for all five pressures that Mahomes faced (Taylor allowed 3 and Smith surrendered 2). They have to be a lot better against the Ravens.
Joe Thuney not suiting up for this game puts immense pressure on the other four starting linemen. Given how inconsistent the tackles have been this season, they'll be under extreme scrutiny in this matchup. Edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney has had a renaissance season in 2023, tying a career-high in sacks with 9.5. He's capable of being a game-wrecker. Odafe Oweh and Kyle Van Noy have had nice seasons themselves and both can take advantage if either Taylor or Smith have disappointing performances.
If Patrick Mahomes is under constant pressure in this matchup. the Chiefs won't be going to Super Bowl LVIII. If they're going to win, it starts with keeping him clean and the offensive tackles are the most important players in doing so.
10. Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo have to be the better coaches
This is a simple, but critically important point. The Ravens are one of the very few that are just as talented, if not more talented, than the Chiefs. That means coaching will be important and that needs to remain true.
In each of the three playoff losses with Patrick Mahomes (2018 vs. New England, 2020 vs. Tampa Bay, and 2021 vs. Cincinnati), one similarity has been Andy Reid being outcoached. Bill Belichick outcoached Reid as the Chiefs got shut out in the first half of the 2018 AFC Championship. Todd Bowles called the perfect defense against a decimated Chiefs team in Super Bowl LV. Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo stole Reid's lunch money in the second half of the 2021 AFC Championship.
That can't happen in this game. Andy Reid has to be the better coach against Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald if the Chiefs are going to move the ball and score points in this game. If not, this one could get ugly for the offense.
On the other side of the ball, Steve Spagnuolo has to be in his bag to limit a prolific Ravens offense led by offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Baltimore is going to run the ball and it's Spags' job to figure out how to stop it. If Monken is the better coordinator, the Chiefs are going to allow a lot of points, which is not a recipe for success with an offense that has struggled for much of the 2023 season.
Andy Reid needs to be better than Mike Macdonald and Steve Sapgnuolo needs to outclass Todd Monken. Let's also not forget that John Harbaugh is one of the most successful head coaches this century. The Chiefs coaching staff needs to be ready in this game. If not, this game won't go well for them.
11. Patrick Mahomes needs to be Patrick Mahomes (again)
I said the same thing last week and it remains especially true this week. The Chiefs are likely outclassed in players 2 through 53 on both rosters, but they have a strong advantage at the one position that can swing this game one way or another. Quarterback.
Due to circumstances out of his control, Patrick Mahomes hasn't had as good of a season as Lamar Jackson, but there's no question that he's the better overall player. That needs to be the case in this game. The Chiefs have relied on Mahomes more so this year than in any other season and he's lived up to the challenge so far. If he has an off game, the Chiefs are in danger of being clobbered.
The Ravens are better than the Bills in pretty much every area, except quarterback, and the Chiefs were in danger of losing the Divisional Round game in the fourth quarter, so Patrick Mahomes needs to be on his A-game for the Chiefs to win.
If Patrick Mahomes plays like the future first-ballot Hall of Famer that he is, the Chiefs will likely win. If he has a down game, the Chiefs will get crushed. Patrick Mahomes needs to be Patrick Mahomes.