Let me be the first to say that this absolutely kills me to even write this blog. I am potentially the most superstitious sports fan on the face of the planet. I've documented this previously both on this site and other publications, but the combination of undiagnosed OCD coupled with my great-grandmother-instilled classic Southern wives-tale mindset puts me in a mental pretzel any time I think something is going to jinx me or someone that I love. The Kansas City Chiefs are squarely in the "someone I love category", so I will apologize now—months in advance—if I manifest any of the following terrible things into existence with this blog.
With that disclaimer out of the way, let's get to it. We all know the feeling of heading into a Kansas City Chiefs season with little to no hope. A stretch like 2007 to 2009 or the 2012 season comes to mind right off the top of my head, and I'm sure there are fans several years my senior that remember some pretty lean years from the '70s and '80s. The good news? Those days are a distant memory in the Patrick Mahomes era.
The Chiefs are riding a seven-season AFC West championship streak, have appeared in 3 of the last 5 Super Bowls, and took home the belt last year in Super Bowl LVII. There is no hyperbole in saying that this has been, without question, the most golden of eras in Kansas City Chiefs' history.
What could go wrong? The Chiefs have the league's best at its most important position, a first-ballot Hall of Fame head coach and tight end, an offensive line considered to be among the league's best heading into 2023, and a young, revamped defense that has added personnel that seems to fit more and more with the "pin your ears back" style of play that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo prefers to deploy. In fact, if there was a year to count on a "down season" from K.C., it would've been last year after Tyreek Hill was traded to the Dolphins and players like Tyrann Mathieu and Charvarius Ward departed in free agency. Lucky for you and I, the rumors of the Chiefs' demise were greatly exaggerated.
So what could possibly keep the Chiefs from doing the exact same thing—Patrick Mahomes yet again torching the league and the Chiefs leading from the front from start to finish—from happening again in 2023? Well, there are a number of things in all three phases of football that could contribute, but my primary focus here is to examine what could happen on the offensive side of the ball. Some of these things will be troubling to read. Some of these things will seem downright unlikely. But they could happen, and if they do, we will all likely be looking to 2024 as a year we all seek redemption.
Lack of wide receiver weaponry
Stop me if you've heard this before: the Chiefs are heading into this season with what appears to be less firepower in the receiving corps than in years past. With the departure of JuJu Smith-Schuster to the New England Patriots, the Chiefs will be entering this season sans their top receiving option from the season before for the second straight campaign. Now, that's not to say that the void left by JuJu is the same as the one left behind by Tyreek Hill heading into the 2022 season, but the point stands. The Chiefs have chosen the team control route with receiver contracts as opposed to dishing out sizeable deals to proven veterans. It worked last year, but what about in 2023?
That's where this list starts and where things could get interesting for Kansas City's offense this season. I'm writing this in mid-June, so things could obviously change, but as of right now, the Chiefs have Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore slated to start with rookie Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, Richie James, Justyn Ross, and a handful of other fringe roster players providing depth. This will be the first time since 2015 that the Chiefs enter a season without a single player in their receiving corps having made a Pro Bowl appearance.
,We saw Patrick Mahomes take a similar bunch of receivers last year and seemingly say "hold my bear" and torch the league anyway with JuJu, MVS, Mecole Hardman, Moore, and Watson last year, why can't he do it again? Well, first of all, there are only four guys who have even experienced a game day with the Chiefs (Moore, MVS, Toney, and Watson) and none who have proven to be go-to targets or leaders in the locker room to this point. That's not to say that they won't, but the experience is certainly lacking heading into 2023.
There's also the fact that a player's best ability is his availability. Both Moore and Toney missed time last season with an injury, and Valdes-Scantling missed time the season before when he was with the Packers due to a hamstring injury. Justin Watson was reliable a year ago from a health standpoint, but to imagine a Chiefs roster where Watson is WR1 is a thought that even the presence of Travis Kelce can't fully cure. The offense certainly runs through Mahomes and Kelce first, but there have to be threats at every level—including the wide receiving corps—for the offense to be consistent enough throughout the course of a 17-game schedule to remain at the top of football's mountain. That respect will have to be earned this season by this unit.
Zeus looks more like a man than a god
The only thing that has made Travis Kelce look human in an athletic setting in recent memory was his attempt to toss out the first pitch in a recent game for the Cleveland Guardians. While he may not have thrown a perfect strike on that attempt, Kelce has been a picture of consistency for the Kansas City Chiefs since being drafted back in 2013.
Kelce's seven consecutive seasons with 1,000+ yards receiving count as one of the eight records he holds among tight ends in NFL history. He is second in both receiving yards and touchdowns in postseason history among all players, not just tight ends. His performances in both the regular and postseasons as a Chief have assured him a spot in Canton exactly 5 years after he decides to hang up his cleats.
Just last week, Kelce said he would keep playing "until the wheels fall off" when asked about his potential retirement. While this is something to certainly get excited about as a Chiefs fan, it's also something that should prompt your brain to wonder when exactly those wheels might fall off. Kelce looked as good as ever in 2022, leading the Chiefs in catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns. He was 8th in the entire NFL in receiving yards and 2nd in touchdowns, again compard to wideouts, not just tight ends. But Kelce will be 34 years old shortly after he begins his 11th season in the league and with the Chiefs. The average tight end career span in the NFL? 2.85 years.
Kelce is without question an anomaly, a player who has time and time again defeated his opponents on the field with jaw-dropping, clutch plays and defeated the biggest adversary of all time. But how much longer can that go on? There have been numerous times over the course of the past two seasons when whispers around the Kingdom about Kelce's health have grown louder and louder. Whether it's been shoulder issues, back issues, or hip issues, there have been times in recent memory when Kelce has appeared uncomfortable out there on the field, but his performance has not truly been impacted to date.
Kelce was once again Patrick Mahomes' top target a year ago. In fact, there was only one week in 2022 (Week 5 vs. the Raiders) where Kelce accounted for less than 20% of Mahomes targets in a game. He accounted for 25.5% of Mahomes passing yards, 29.3% of his passing touchdowns, and 25.3% of his completions. If Father Time were to catch up with Travis Kelce in 2023, the Chiefs would be missing over 1/4 of their passing production from their Super Bowl run in 2022, from just one player.
The turnstiles at offensive tackle admit too many guests
,The Chiefs' 2023 offensive line outlook is, on paper, one of the better we've seen in recent memory. Of course the guard-center-guard battery of Trey Smith, Creed Humphrey, and Joe Thuney is one of the league's best. However, there will be new blood at the bookends of the Chiefs' offensive line with the offseason additions of offensive tackles Jawaan Taylor from the Jacksonville Jaguars and Donovan Smith from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The last time the Chiefs had questions at offensive tackle, Brett Veach responded by trading the Chiefs' 2021 first-round pick to the Baltimore Ravens for Orlando Brown, Jr. The trade paid off for the Chiefs in a lot of ways, as Brown protected Patrick Mahomes blindside for two seasons, including giving up zero sacks in Super Bowl LVII against an Eagles defense that was the league's best at getting to the passer. Andrew Wylie helped in this no-sack effort as well. Today, Wylie is employed by the Washington Commanders and Brown is now a member of the rival Cincinnati Bengals.
whereasMahomes'So out with the old, in with the new, right? Well, let's assess that. Protecting Mahomes blind side this year, apparently, will be Donovan Smith. Smith missed 4 games with injury last season, but still found a way to rank second in the league among tackles with 12 penalties accepted for 100 yards and ranked well below Brown and Wylie with a 78.3% pass block win rate. Possibly more troubling was Smith's lack of success in the run game. Smith won just 64.9% of the time in running downs, where Brown was a stalwart for a revamped Chiefs rushing attack a year ago.
I wish I could say a few different things about Jawaan Taylor, but unfortunately this story reads a lot like the tale of Donovan Smith. Taylor was 30th in the league in pass blocking among tackles in 2022, and had the league's worst run blocking grade among tackles per PFF.
Now, to say that all hope is lost with the offensive tackles heading into 2023 would be erroneous at best. A year ago, Orlando Brown, Jr ranked first in the NFL in pressures allowed at 58. Second place? Andrew Wylie at 54. Just because the tackles this season look potentially suspect on paper does not mean that it will play out that way on the field. Andy Heck is a renowned offensive line coach, Andy Reid cut his teeth in coaching that position, and the Chiefs have the vaunted G-C-G lineup that makes a tackle's job much easier. If they are, however, a weak link, the Chiefs' offense could sputter at times in 2023.
Our worst nightmare comes to life
This is the part I mentioned up top about superstition. If something were to happen to Patrick Mahomes next season, I would not be able to live with myself. Somehow, some way, I would contribute any 2023 injury to the defending MVP and Super Bowl MVP to a blog that I wrote in June. It would tear me up inside and I may just pen my resignation in a much-shorter-than-2000-words finale blog here at Arrowhead Addict.
Having said that, there is no more important (ahem, valuable) player to any sports franchise in all of sports than Patrick Mahomes. If the Chiefs' offense is a Lamborghini, then Mahomes is without question the V12 motor that puts out 819 horsepower. Since he stepped on the field for the first time in 2018, Mahomes has been the best player in the most important position in sports. It took a while for the rest of the sports world to get with the program on that, but it's now unanimously agreed upon unless you're Ja'Marr Chase. An injury to Mahomes in 2023 would be a death knell to the Chiefs' offense for many reasons, but let's take a look at how it could potentially impact them over the span of the season.
Say Mahomes does what he did in 2019 and misses 2-3 weeks (2 games) with a minor injury. There are pockets of the schedule where the Chiefs could salvage a couple of wins. During weeks 2 to 4, Kansas City sees Jacksonville (toss-up), Chicago (likely win) and the Jets (toss-up). That would put the season starting out at either 2-2 or 1-3. A steep hill to climb. The second easiest portion of the schedule would come from October 12 through November 26 when the Chiefs see the Broncos, Chargers, Broncos, Dolphins, Eagles, and Raiders. Still, yet there are 3 out of 5 matchups with playoff teams from a year ago including the 2022 NFC Champions.
What I'm saying is there is not a good time on this gauntlet of a schedule for the Chiefs to have to worry about Blaine Gabbert—who is 13-35 in his career as a starter—or Shane Buechele (who never started a game in his career) leading them to victory. An extended injury from Mahomes would without question extinguish any hope the Chiefs have of even making the playoff in 2023, let alone making a run at another Lombardi.
This roster is built around the fact that the Chiefs have the best quarterback in the game. Take that away, and the team is a complete shell of itself. In all of the doomsday scenarios in all of the world, this one would be the most catastrophic for Chiefs Kingdom to endure.