In Week 6, the Chiefs and Bills met in what was one of the most anticipated matchups of the 2022 NFL regular season. The Patriots and Browns faced each other with both having the goal of climbing back to 0.500. The Colts looked to get revenge against the Jaguars after being humiliated in Jacksonville during Week 2. The Jets, Bengals, and Ravens all went on the road to NFC teams, while the Steelers and Dolphins each hosted NFC teams. The Titans, Raiders, and Texans all had their bye.
Here is what the AFC Standings look like after Week 6:
Before the start of Week 6, the Bills were the favorites in the entire NFL to win Super Bowl LVII. According to FiveThirtyEight (QB Adjusted), the Buffalo Bills had a 22% chance to win it all before Week 6. After Buffalo, the Kansas City Chiefs were at 13%, the Baltimore Ravens at 5%, and then the Cincinnati Bengals, Tennessee Titans, and Los Angeles Chargers were all at 2%.
The Dolphins were defeated by Minnesota without Tua Tagovailoa. The Patriots crushed the Browns. The Jets stunned the Packers at Lambeau Field. The Colts got revenge on the Jaguars. The Steelers stunned the Buccaneers despite losing Kenny Pickett. The Bengals bounced in Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase’s return to Louisiana. The Ravens were stunned by the Giants. The Bills beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead in a thriller. The Chargers bested the Broncos in overtime after overcoming a 10-point deficit.
The Dolphins desperately need Tua Tagovailoa to return healthy. The Patriots may not be dead after all, while Jacoby Brissett may not be able to lead the Browns to a playoff spot without Deshaun Watson. The Jets may be a playoff Cinderella this season. The Colts are not dead in the AFC South race and the Jaguars may have peaked too early. The Bengals’ offense may have figured it out after hanging 30 points on a very good Saints defense, though their offensive line still has question marks.
The Ravens still have a lot of questions to answer both on offense and defense. The Steelers may be a playoff spoiler down the stretch. The Bills likely secured home-field advantage with the victory of the Chiefs. Kansas City needs their young guys (Trent McDuffie and Willie Gay) to return in the worst way. The Chargers, despite their injuries, should still be a playoff team, while the Broncos have little margin for error moving forward.
After Week 6, six teams in the AFC have a losing record, seven teams have a winning record, and three teams are at exactly 0.500. According to Five Thirty Eight, the Buffalo Bills are still the team with the best chance to win the Super Bowl out of all AFC teams with a 28% chance to take home the Lombardi Trophy. After Buffalo, the Kansas City Chiefs are at 9%, the Cincinnati Bengals are at 4%, the Baltimore Ravens at 3%, and the Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers, Indianapolis Colts, and New England Patriots are all at 2%.
In the race for the #1 seed in the AFC, per Five Thirty Eight, the Bills currently have the best chance to finish with the best regular season record in the conference at 71%, with the Chiefs second at 10%. After Buffalo/Kansas City, the next teams are the Bengals and Chargers with both at 4%.
The Buffalo Bills proved they’re best in the AFC (for now), although the Chiefs also proved that they can play with them today, but January may yield a different result. Buffalo and Kansas City are the top dawgs in the AFC today but teams like the Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, Titans, Chargers, and more could prove to be threats once the playoffs roll around.