The AFC West is one of the best divisions in the NFL. What is the best and worst-case scenario for every team in the division?
The AFC West is one of the strongest—if not the strongest—divisions in the entire NFL. Every team in the division has a top 10-12 quarterback, every team has an over/under win total of 8.5 or better, and every team added a lot of talent this offseason.
With the seventh playoff spot in each conference added a couple of years ago, every team in the AFC West has a shot to make the playoffs, but basic math and NFL logic say that it is extremely unlikely that all four of Denver, Kansas City, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles all win 12 (or even 11) regular season games or more.
What is the ceiling for every team in the AFC West this season and what is the floor? What are the most games that each team could realistically win this regular season and what are the fewest? Let’s review each team and how their seasons could realistically go in 2022.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Best Case Scenario
Even before the Davante Adams trade, the Raiders were flush with offensive talent with Derek Carr, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, Kenyan Drake, and Josh Jacobs. Adding one of the best receivers of the past half-decade makes the Vegas receiving core amongst the best in the entire NFL. They were the 5th seed in the AFC last season despite turmoil involving Jon Gruden, Henry Ruggs, and Damon Arnette and now they have stability at head coach with Josh McDaniels and it’s unlikely they lose two young players again due to legal reasons.
In 2021, the Raiders had one of the best pass rushes in the NFL and they swapped out Yannick Ngakoue for Chandler Jones, who was a lot better than the former last season. Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones could very well be on the best pass-rushing duos in the league this year, possibly improving a unit that was already borderline elite last season.
Overall, after Josh McDaniels’ first head coaching stint with Denver over a decade ago, it’s unlikely he’s as big of a disaster as he was back then. If everything falls in the right place for Vegas, they could win the division for the first time in two decades this year. Their schedule is very tough but they could make it through alive if their stars thrive.
Best Case Scenario: 12-5, AFC West Champions, AFC Championship Game appearance
Worst Case Scenario
The Raiders are not your typical team projected to land in last place, as their 8.5 over/under projected win total is crazy high. For context, according to Draft Kings, the next closet projected last-place teams are the Steelers and Giants, who are each pinned at over/under 7 wins.
Despite the additions of Davante Adams and Chandler Jones, it is possible that the newly acquired stars either don’t fit in as well as planned and Josh McDaniels is no better of a coach and/or leader than he was a decade ago.
It’s also very possible that the back seven of their defense holds the overall unit back and the great pass rush is unable to cover up holes in the secondary and they get lit up by the elite passers in the division. Their offensive line is also an underwhelming group. Kolton Miller is borderline elite but Alex Leatherwood was horrendous as a rookie and Brandon Parker is also not a good overall blocker. In addition, Andre James and John Simpson were both solid last year but are far from established pass protectors. Derek Carr is not a great player under pressure so a poor offensive line may cancel out their elite pass catchers.
In the end, I am personally not high on the Raiders and think they are the clear-cut last-place team in the AFC West, which is a shame since they could threaten to win a couple of other divisions in the NFL. One of the four teams in the west will likely be the odd one out and it could be the Raiders for several reasons. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities that a poor start and McDaniels not adjusting well could snowball into a nightmare season for a team that’s looking to take the next step and win a playoff game.
Worst Case Scenario: 6-11, Fourth place in the AFC West, Miss Playoffs
Projection
7-10, Fourth place in the AFC West, Miss Playoffs
DENVER BRONCOS
Best Case Scenario
After several years of struggling to replace Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning, the Broncos shelled out multiple premium picks for another future Hall of Famer in Russell Wilson. Wilson is a bona fide top 10 player at his position and the Broncos finally have a signal caller to take advantage of the talent of receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Javonte Williams is one of the better young running backs in all of football and Melvin Gordon is a very solid second option in the backfield. Their offensive line is also one of the more underrated lines in the NFL.
The Broncos defense is loaded with talent across the field. Patrick Surtain II is one of the best young cornerbacks in the NFL, Bradley Chubb is a very good edge rusher, Randy Gregory is also a good player on the edge, rookie Nik Bonitto was a great pass rusher at Oklahoma, and safety Justin Simmons is one of the better at his position in the league.
If Russell Wilson adjusts perfectly to his new team and new coach Nathaniel Hackett turns out to be a successful hire, the Broncos could be a huge problem for their AFC West rivals. They could realistically be the team to dethrone Kansas City and become the first non-Chiefs team to win the division since they did it in 2015.
Best Case Scenario: 12-5, AFC West Champions, Super Bowl appearance
West Case Scenario
Despite all of the hype, it may turn out that Rusell Wilson was part of the problem in Seattle. After returning from his thumb injury last season, Wilson had a completion percentage of 61.5%, 15 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and an average PFF passing grade ($) of 58.3, 23rd out of 26 quarterbacks with at least the same number of dropbacks in that time frame. It is fair to say that the injury and Seattle’s below-average offensive line were to blame for his poor play but he may begin to regress a little bit.
Nathaniel Hackett is the only head coach in the AFC West that has coached zero games in the NFL and it is far from known if he is a solid coach in this league. Coaching is critical in the NFL and it can make or break some teams, especially in a division as good as the AFC West.
Another point I don’t see being discussed as much is the effect of Vic Fangio’s departure on the quality of the Broncos’ defense. Denver had a good defense last season but it remains a question what portion was because of Fangio and what portion was talent. New DC Ejiro Evero may very well be a great coordinator but he could also be a bust. I expect their defense to take at least a small step back this season.
Worst Case Scenario: 8-9, Fourth place in the AFC West, Miss Playoffs
Projection
10-7, Third place in the AFC West, Seventh seed in the AFC, Lose in the Wild Card Round
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Best Case Scenario
Every year there is an unofficial “offseason champion” and the Los Angeles Chargers may be that team in 2022. They have a borderline, if not bona fide, top 5 quarterback, a defense that loaded up on veteran talent this past offseason, a slightly improved offensive line, and what some consider to be one of the brightest young coaches in the NFL.
I was a huge fan of Justin Herbert before the 2020 NFL Draft, so I was not happy when the Chargers selected him with the 6th overall pick. My feeling has since been validated as Herbert has established himself as not just one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, but one of the best overall as well. Austin Ekeler is still an incredible receiving back, and Keenan Allen/Mike Williams are a good 1-2 punch at receiver. Not to mention that second-year left tackle Rashawn Slater could take a huge step forward and become a franchise left tackle. Rookie guard Zion Johnson may also turn out to be one of the best values of the 2022 first round.
Their defense added stars Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson this past March and Sebastian Joseph-Day should be a good player on the defensive line for the Chargers. In terms of returning players, Derwin James is one of the best defensive weapons in the NFL (when healthy), Asante Samuel Jr. is a good young corner, and Joey Bosa will continue to be a menace for offensive tackles.
The Chargers gave the Chiefs all they could handle in their two matchups in 2021 and were arguably a coin flip and a choke job against the Texans from winning the AFC West. With an improved roster, it’s possible that they finally get over the hump and win the division in 2022.
Best Case Scenario: 13-4, AFC West Champions, Super Bowl champions
Worst Case Scenario
In their worst-case scenario, the Chargers are still the Chargers and they barely miss the playoffs again. Justin Herbert could unexpectedly regress and Brandon Staley could outsmart himself in critical games.
The NFL has seen teams add a lot of talent on one side of the ball only for the acquisitions to not mesh as well as hoped. The Chargers have added loads of talent on defense but it’s not a guaranteed success. It could realistically take time for the Chargers to figure it out defensively.
Overall, I’m not as bullish on the Chargers as some members of the media but I’m also not as cynical as other AFC West rival fans. I don’t believe they will flame out like last season but I can also see it happening if certain things go wrong.
Worst Case Scenario: 8-9, Fourth place in the AFC West, Miss Playoffs
Projection
11-6, Second place in the AFC West, Fifth seed in the AFC, Lose in the Divisional Round
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Best Case Scenario
The Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes as their quarterback. They still have Andy Reid as head coach. They still have an elite offensive line. A lot of fans and media members have been dancing on the Chiefs’ grave this spring and summer and I don’t quite understand why. They have the best passer in the sport, they have the best tight end in the NFL, an elite offensive line, a complete wide receiver core, and a young defense loaded with talent. Oh, and they’ve also won the AFC West six seasons in a row.
I’m not going to say much regarding Mahomes, but Skyy Moore and JuJu Smith-Schuster are looking very good and Travis Kelce is still Travis Kelce. In their ideal scenario, the offense has its best season since 2018, which will be hard to replicate, but their rebuilt receiver core and potential willingness to stick with the run could make them more difficult to defend than in recent years. Trading away Tyreek Hill hurts but it’s not a backbreaker for Kansas City.
On defense, the Chiefs are projected by fans to have one of the worst units in the NFL. I don’t think that’s unfair but I also don’t think that’s likely as well. They’re loaded with young talent on defense with young stud linebackers Nick Bolton and Willie Gay. They also have young corners Rashad Fenton, L’Jarius Sneed, Trent McDuffie, and Joshua Williams to go along with rookie Bryan Cook, which could turn into one of the best young secondaries in the entire league. They drafted George Karlaftis a lot later than they should have in this past draft, they recently added Carlos Dunlap on the edge, and Chris Jones is still one of the premier interior pass rushers in the NFL, right behind Aaron Donald. It would not shock me in the least bit if the Chiefs’ defense surprised people this season and is a great unit by season’s end.
In the Chiefs’ best-case scenario, not only do most of their new additions have to work out but they also have to both mesh well together and hit the ground running as soon as Week 1 comes around.
Overall, the Chiefs are still the Chiefs and will make the playoffs, it’s just a matter of which seed. They have as much young talent as they’ve ever had in the Patrick Mahomes era and it wouldn’t be wise to waste it.
Best Case Scenario: 14-3, AFC West Champions, Super Bowl champions
Worst Case Scenario
The Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes, they still have Andy Reid, Travis Kelce is still a member of the team and they still have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. That’s enough to win the AFC West… most years. Losing one of the most feared superweapons that the NFL has seen this century will cause some growing pains in their rebuilt wide receiver room.
Their defense, while loaded with talent, is very young and will likely be feasted upon early in the season and they will have to rely on their new-look offense to carry the load, which is not inherently a bad thing because of Mahomes but could cost them due to a receiver group that needs to build chemistry with the future Hall of Fame quarterback.
There is also a scenario in which the new receivers do not work well with Mahomes and their offensive line takes a surprising step back. Also in their nightmare scenario, all of their moves to aid the pass rush, such as retaining Frank Clark, signing Carlos Dunlap, and drafting George Karlaftis all don’t work out and the Chiefs again have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. The young corners, like Trent McDuffie and Joshua Williams, may prove to have needed a redshirt year and play like the rookies they are. Young linebackers Nick Bolton and Willie Gay could also take a step back, which would hurt the middle of their defense really bad.
In conclusion, this is the most vulnerable that the Chiefs have been, arguably since 2017. This could finally be the year that a team other than the Kansas City Chiefs wins the AFC West. Even in a year last season where Patrick Mahomes seemingly forgot how to play quarterback for a month, the Chiefs still managed to finish 12-5 and were a solid second half in Week 17 against the Bengals from being the number one seed in the AFC. Even if the Chiefs have a “down year”, they should still contend for the AFC West crown.
Worst Case Scenario: 10-7, Third place in the AFC West, Lose in the Wild Card Round
Projection
12-5, First place in the AFC West, Second seed in the AFC, Lose in the AFC Championship Game