Will Chris Jones be with the Kansas City Chiefs beyond the 2022 season? His current contract and Aaron Donald’s new deal create some big questions for Brett Veach.
Let’s get this out of the way: We all want interior defensive lineman Chris Jones to be a member of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2023 and beyond. However, the NFL is a business and sometimes that means teams have to make tough decisions that may or may not come back to bite them.
With Aaron Donald signing a new contract, making him the highest-paid non-QB in NFL history, a new contract for Jones just became exponentially more complicated.
The Chiefs are also short on defensive line talent of any kind, causing their current pass rush situation to leave a lot to be desired both short-term and long-term, which makes George Karlaftis’ development critical. But possibly even more important is whether Chris Jones is on the Chiefs’ roster by the 2023 season and beyond.
The Level of Play
Per Pro Football Reference, Chris Jones has 49.5 career sacks in Kansas City, which is good enough for 10th all-time in Chiefs history. He’s had no shortage of elite games throughout his six seasons in K.C.
Jones has consistently been one of the Chiefs’ best payers since being drafted by the Chiefs 37th overall in the 2016 NFL Draft. He’s earned at least an 83.0 overall PFF grade every season since 2016, including at least 89.0 overall from 2017 through 2020 (with 90.0 considered “elite”) and at least 90.0 in 2018 and 2020. Jones is also the only defensive player since he was drafted to earn a 90.0 grade in a season (Eric Berry was close in 2016 with an 89.9 overall grade).
Not only has he been productive but he’s also been a fan favorite since the day he became a Chief. He even joined an Arrowhead Addict live stream after the Chiefs came back to beat the Chargers in overtime during a Week 15 game last season.
The Salary Cap Situation
As previously stated, the NFL is a business, and the salary cap is a real factor when building a team. The cap for the 2022 NFL season is $208.2 million, while the Over The Cap is projecting the 2023 NFL cap ceiling to be $225 million.
Also according to Over The Cap, with the projected $225 million cap ceiling, the Chiefs are projected to have around $16 million in cap space for 2023 with approximately 42 roster spots taken (after Joshua Williams signs his rookie contract). Chris Jones’ 2023 cap hit is scheduled to be about $27.04 million, with $20 million of that being base salary and a workout bonus.
Because 2023 is the final year of Jones’ current contract, the Chiefs (next offseason) will be unable to restructure his contract to push money down the road to save cap $ immediately. The only realistic way the Chiefs can reduce his cap hit is to A.) Release him and save $20 million or, B.) Trade him and also save $20 million or, C.) Extend his contract beyond 2023 and save anywhere from $5-15 million on the 2023 cap. (That depends on how the new extension is structured.)
I feel like it’s safe to say that option C is the preferred choice among Chiefs fans, with option B being the next choice and option A as the last resort in case of a drastic decline in Jones’ level of play.
While an extension is the most popular solution, it may not necessarily be the most likely. Brett Veach and the Chiefs have proven that they are not afraid to trade away productive players that they feel are out of their price range (or let them walk), as proven with Tyreek Hill, Tyrann Mathieu, and Dee Ford just to name a few.
I will say that the odds of the Chiefs straight up releasing Chris Jones in March of 2023 are slim to none. The only way that I foresee that happening is if Jones suffers a career-altering injury. Even if Jones’ production takes a step back in 2022, I still feel it makes sense for the Chiefs to try and sign him since he’ll be 29 in 2023 and it’s realistic to expect at least two seasons of solid production beyond 2022.
If the Chiefs decide to trade Jones, he’ll have plenty of suitors. Maybe not as many will come to the table for a sign-and-trade for him as there were for Tyreek Hill, but he should have enough for at least a competitive market, assuming his play doesn’t drop off significantly this upcoming season.
The Chiefs also shouldn’t expect to get in return as much as they did in the Hill trade. I would assume they would net no more than a 2nd round pick or maybe even a 3rd round pick packaged with one or more selections on Day 3. This may be a disappointing return since Jones is a player who may find his way to Canton one day, but teams will be understandably wary of giving up both a premium and a huge contract for a ~300-pound defensive lineman who’s also nearing 30 years old.
The Projected Contract
As alluded to earlier, after the 2022 season, Chris Jones has one-year remaining on his current contract at about a $27 million cap hit ($19.5 million in base salary, $500k workout bonus, and ~$7 million in signing bonus money). Since the base salary and workout bonus are both non-guaranteed, it would save the Chiefs $20 million to release or trade Jones next offseason, while leaving a dead cap charge of ~$7M.
Aaron Donald’s new contract is essentially three years and $95 million, meaning that the starting point for a new contract for Jones will be $30 million/year and will very likely be higher than that. Yes, the entire contract likely won’t be guaranteed, but it will still be at the very least $50 million in guarantees that the Chiefs will have to give Jones, and it will very likely be closer to $60 million in new total guarantees.
Last offseason, the Chiefs converted Jones’ $20 million roster bonus to a signing bonus to create $13.33 million in cap space for 2021. This caused Jones’s cap hit to increase by $6.66 million in both 2022 and 2023.
If the Chiefs decide to extend Chris Jones, due to Aaron Donald’s current contract and potential upcoming extension, they should expect to pay anywhere from $30-35 million/year on a 3-4 year contract.
Using the Salary Cap calculator on Over The Cap, I will outline what a potential contract extension for Chris Jones will look like. Being conservative, I will project that the Chiefs sign him to a 3-year, $90 million contract extension through 2026, with a $30 million signing bonus and a $5 million base salary for 2023. This contract would have $60 million in new guaranteed money, thus guaranteeing around $80 million through 2026 (Aaron Donald got about $95 million in guarantees over three years).
With this projected contract, the Chiefs can get his 2023 cap hit down to around $20 million, thus saving around $7 million in salary-cap space for 2023. Because the cap hit is relatively low for 2023, the projected cap charges for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are $30.5 million, $32.5 million, and $34.5 million, respectively.
Here is a summary of the mock contact:
- 2023: $5 million base salary, $14.541668 million prorated bonus, and $19.541668 million cap hit. (Due to a past restructure, $7.041668 million is fully locked in for 2023, whether Jones is cut, traded, or extended)
- 2024: $23 million base salary, $7.5 million prorated bonus, and $30.5 million cap hit.
- 2025: $25 million base salary, $7.5 million prorated bonus, and $32.5 million cap hit. (The Chiefs can save $3 million in cap space for 2025 by releasing Jones in March of 2025, but incur $29.5 million in dead cap space. If they released Jones post-June 1, it would incur a $22 million dead cap charge for 2025, saving around $10.5 million that season, while absorbing a $7.5 million dead cap charge in 2026)
- 2026: $27 million base salary, $7.5 million prorated bonus, and $34.5 million cap hit. (The Chiefs can save $27 million in cap space for 2026 by releasing Jones in March of 2026, but incur $7.5 million in dead cap space)
This contract would essentially lock Jones in Kansas City through 2025, possibly 2024 if circumstances would create such a scenario.
Even though this contract was just a rough estimate, it should look somewhat similar to what Jones will end up signing with a team (save for a few details such as the signing bonus size and whether the contract is base salary heavy or roster/workout bonus heavy), whether that be with the Chiefs or not. If anything, I believe this projection is an underestimate of what is likely to happen.
In the end, Jones’ return to Kansas City in 2023 just got a lot more uncertain and it will also depend on what other contracts the Chiefs sign between now and next March, how the Chiefs’ 2022 draft class looks this season, and how Jones himself performs in 2022.
The Conclusion
There are both positives and negatives to cutting Chris Jones, trading Chris Jones, and extending Chris Jones in March of 2023. While a cut is extremely unlikely, a trade is not, but an extension may be even more of a tall order with Donald’s new contract.
His potential new contract will likely be one of the most important, if not the most important, decisions that Brett Veach and the Chiefs have to make next offseason. But it is a problem for next offseason and the Chiefs need to focus on developing their current crop of young talent and, oh, winning Super Bowl LVII.
If it were up to me, barring any sudden significant drop-off in play in 2022, I would try and extend him at a contract with less guaranteed money than what I projected ($60 million). But at the same time, the Chiefs just traded Tyreek Hill because they didn’t want to give him a giant extension with a lot of guaranteed money, and Hill and Jones are around the same age.
If I had to pick the most likely scenario—a trade or extension—I will, unfortunately, have to pick the trade. However, I hope that I’m wrong and that the Chiefs and Jones can work out a contract that is fair for both sides. Then again, it’s possible that next March, as much as we don’t want it to be the case, will go down like Yogi Berra once said, “It’s like déjà vu all over again”.
What do you want the Chiefs to do with Chris Jones? What do you think will happen with Chris Jones in 2023? Feel free to let me know whether you agree or disagree either in the comment section or on Twitter (@StrozinskyLucas).