Here are four bold predictions for the Chiefs 2020 season.
The Kansas City Chiefs, led by Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, are coming off their most successful season in five decades. The reigning Super Bowl LIV Champions return 18 of 22 starters and look poised to repeat in Super Bowl LV.
With expectations as high as ever, I thought we could consider some rather bold predictions heading into the 2020 season. Assuming the season is played as normal, here are four predictions that while bold are very achievable for the Chiefs in the upcoming season.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be Offensive Rookie of the Year
I think it’s safe to say that there hasn’t been another offensive rookie for the Kansas City Chiefs with this much hype in the last decade other than Patrick Mahomes himself. The fact the defending Super Bowl Champions took a running back in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft was initially surprising, but local and national media alike have latched onto the potential of Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Do not be fooled. Edwards-Helaire is not your prototypical NFL running back. At 5’7″ and 207 pounds, you’d likely assume Edwards-Helaire must be an absolute blazer to command pick number 32 in the NFL Draft. While he isn’t slow by any means, his 4.60 40-yard dash time at the 2020 NFL Combine usually leaves something to be desired.
While Edwards-Helaire does not possess ideal long speed, his ability to see holes before they open up reminds me a lot of LeSean McCoy in his prime. Add to that his knack for breaking ankles in the open-field and you have the makings of a stud three-down running back in today’s NFL.
That last factor, his ability in the open field, is what is most intriguing for me in watching this season’s Chiefs offense. I’m of the mindset that the offense wasn’t clicking last season until late, mainly because of the lack of productivity from the running back position. Late in the season, you saw Damien Williams hit his stride, especially as a receiver, and the offense exploded.
No disrespect to Williams, as he was integral in the Super Bowl run, but from a pure talent perspective, Edwards-Helaire might have him beat. If he can stay healthy and be reliable in pass protection, look for him to become a favorite target for Patrick Mahomes and maybe even push for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
If you think winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors is preposterous, consider a couple things. In the last decade, four running backs have taken home this award in Eddie Lacy, Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, and Saquon Barkley. In those four seasons these players averaged 14 touches for 105 yards and 12 touchdowns, with roughly a 70/30 split in terms of rushing and receiving production.
Do we have an example of a first-year running back in Andy Reid’s system to compare these numbers to? Turns out we do, in none other than Kareem Hunt. His rookie season in 2017 he surpassed all these numbers except touchdowns, with 20 touches a game for 111 yards and 11 touchdowns. One could argue he was the true OPOY that season and not Kamara, but I digress.
He’ll have some tough competition this season with a number of marquee offensive prospects in this year’s rookie class. Yet if the hype this offseason is any indication, a big year from Edwards-Helaire shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.
Patrick Mahomes will win a second MVP award
Patrick Mahomes had an absolutely electrifying 2018 campaign, the likes of which has only been matched one other time by Peyton Manning in 2013. His 2019 season was marred with injuries and, while still spectacular in its own right, lacked a certain Mahomes-ian quality. All that changed starting in the second quarter of the AFC Divisional Round against the Houston Texans.
From roughly the 10-minute mark in the second quarter, Mahomes went on an absolute tear reminiscent of his 2018 exploits. Against three playoff teams, including two in the midst of incredible runs of their own, Mahomes amassed 1,036 yards and 12 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. This is the Mahomes everyone expected coming into 2019. Healthy, aggressive, and precise.
Let’s put some context around these numbers. On a per-game basis, Mahomes was adding 345 yards, 4 touchdowns and only .67 turnovers. If we extrapolate that over a 16 game season we’re looking at 5,525 yards, 64 total touchdowns and only 11 turnovers.
Obviously, I’m not predicting this type of stat line for Mahomes next season. Still, this shows plainly what an incredible three-game stretch Mahomes had in the 2019 playoffs. There are many in the national media that seem to forget the level of ability Mahomes as they fawn over other quarterbacks.
Even more compelling is the idea that Mahomes cast is better this season. Tyreek Hill, who is in some analysts’ minds the best receiver in the league, claims to have turned a corner in his already ridiculous conditioning. Mecole Hardman is entering his second season in Andy Reid’s system, something that almost universally pays dividends.
Sammy Watkins has a chip on his shoulder this season, and all signs point to an increased role for him in this year’s offense. If his performance as the focal point against the Jacksonville Jaguars in week one last season is any indication, he has all the talent to push for a Pro Bowl season.
I already addressed the addition of Edwards-Helaire, which should help the offense maintain a level closer to their playoff run, and everyone knows how deadly Travis Kelce has been on the opposite end of Mahomes the last two seasons.
Then, there’s Mahomes’ own mentality. The best player in the NFL was just voted the third best quarterback in the league by his peers. The NFL’s Top 100 is put to a vote in the regular season, so this is not as shocking as some may think. Both Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson had objectively better regular seasons, even though neither sniffed the greatness of Mahomes’ playoff run.
Even so, this is just the type of bulletin board material that can propel the best player in the game with one of the best supporting casts to another MVP season. Given his new contract actually incentivizes this, look for Mahomes’ 2020 to look closer to 2018 than 2019.
The Kansas City Chiefs will be the top-ranked offense
At this juncture, this point should be a given. If the Kansas City Chiefs even come close to boasting both the Offensive Rookie of the Year in Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the NFL Most Valuable Player in Patrick Mahomes, there’s little doubt the offense would rank number one in most if not all major categories.
The biggest caveat I could see here is one that requires discussion. The 2018 offense was incredible in part because it simply had to be as the supporting unit to an incredibly challenged defense. It’s easy to argue if the 2018 Chiefs had a defense like the 2019 Chiefs, then those offensive numbers would have taken a sizeable hit.
In stark contrast, in 2019 the Baltimore Ravens were able to maintain the top-ranked offense while boasting the fourth-ranked defense according to Football Outsiders DVOA. Unfortunately, this is the exception rather than the rule.
In the last 10 seasons, the only teams to maintain the top offense while maintaining a top-10 defense are the 2019 Baltimore Ravens and the 2015 Seattle Seahawks. On average for that period, the top offenses’ counterpart on defense averaged a ranking of 18.3. The Chiefs defense ended the 2019 season ranked 14th, but they were much better at the end of the season than the beginning.
Even so, the Chiefs remain uniquely poised to duplicate the results of the Ravens and Seahawks next season. Their talent on offense is second to none, and especially in a season where familiarity will play a massive role, the Chiefs have a huge advantage returning almost every starter from their Super Bowl team.
The Kansas City Chiefs will have a top-10 defense
As I mentioned, the Chiefs defense finished the season ranked 14th according to Football Outsiders. I’d argue, in reality, they were a top-10 defense for the second half of the season and the playoffs.
Consider the following categories, all extremely important measures of defensive success, from the first eight games of the regular season compared to the final eight games. All numbers courtesy of Pro Football Reference:
First Eight Games
- Ranked 17th in points against allowing 22.6 per game
- Tied for 15th in interceptions with 6 (14th in total takeaways)
- Ranked 24th in total yards allowed with 377 per game
- Ranked 13th in passing with 232 per game
- Ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed with 145 per game
- Ranked 16th in opponents’ third down conversion percentage
Second Eight Games
- Ranked 2nd in points against allowing only 15.88 ppg
- Tied for 1st in interceptions with 10 (tied for 9th in total takeaways)
- Ranked 10th in total yards allowed with 322 per game
- Ranked 7th in passing with 211 per game
- Ranked 16th in rushing yards allowed with 111 per game
- Ranked 8th in opponents’ third down conversion percentage
As you can see, there was a remarkable improvement in the second half of the season. In these six categories, the Chiefs defense improved an average of 12 spots. You may wonder, did their overall competition decline in the second half of the season? From a high level, this was not the case. The Chiefs played three playoff teams in both the first and second halves of the season.
I think the two factors at play were that the individual players had to get comfortable with their roles and responsibilities, and Spagnuolo had to learn what type of situations to put each player in. That began to gel by midseason and the defense became one of the best in the entire league.
I haven’t even addressed the addition of Willie Gay Jr, whose presence will inject speed and athleticism into a linebacking corps that’s been without it for years, and the addition of a number of depth players in the secondary. If this unit can stay healthy and avoid the pitfalls of a post-COVID world, there’s no question you are looking at the makings of a top-10 defense to go with the top offense in the league.