Kansas City Chiefs: Four bold predictions for the 2020 season

The Kansas City Chiefs will have a top-10 defense

As I mentioned, the Chiefs defense finished the season ranked 14th according to Football Outsiders. I’d argue, in reality, they were a top-10 defense for the second half of the season and the playoffs.

Consider the following categories, all extremely important measures of defensive success, from the first eight games of the regular season compared to the final eight games. All numbers courtesy of Pro Football Reference:

First Eight Games

• Ranked 17th in points against allowing 22.6 per game
• Tied for 15th in interceptions with 6 (14th in total takeaways)
• Ranked 24th in total yards allowed with 377 per game
• Ranked 13th in passing with 232 per game
• Ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed with 145 per game
• Ranked 16th in opponents’ third down conversion percentage

Second Eight Games

• Ranked 2nd in points against allowing only 15.88 ppg
• Tied for 1st in interceptions with 10 (tied for 9th in total takeaways)
• Ranked 10th in total yards allowed with 322 per game
• Ranked 7th in passing with 211 per game
• Ranked 16th in rushing yards allowed with 111 per game
• Ranked 8th in opponents’ third down conversion percentage

As you can see, there was a remarkable improvement in the second half of the season. In these six categories, the Chiefs defense improved an average of 12 spots. You may wonder, did their overall competition decline in the second half of the season? From a high level, this was not the case. The Chiefs played three playoff teams in both the first and second halves of the season.

I think the two factors at play were that the individual players had to get comfortable with their roles and responsibilities, and Spagnuolo had to learn what type of situations to put each player in. That began to gel by midseason and the defense became one of the best in the entire league.

I haven’t even addressed the addition of Willie Gay Jr, whose presence will inject speed and athleticism into a linebacking corps that’s been without it for years, and the addition of a number of depth players in the secondary. If this unit can stay healthy and avoid the pitfalls of a post-COVID world, there’s no question you are looking at the makings of a top-10 defense to go with the top offense in the league.