Here are some recommendations when betting on the 2020 Chiefs season.
As states across the country continue to legalize sports gambling, the rise in popularity converges perfectly for Kansas City Chiefs fans, given their rightful place as the hottest team in the NFL. There is no doubt that more money will be wagered on Kansas City this year than any other time in the team’s 60-year history.
Savvy bettors know that the keys to making money in gambling are to make multiple wagers on different lines and, second, to avoid sucker bets but do not avoid taking big gambles. Hitting just one “long shot” can secure your bankroll for the following year or longer.
With the exciting marriage of the NFL’s next great dynasty residing in Kansas City and the explosion of sports gambling across the country, Chiefs fans should know what bets are available to make on their team, which ones they should consider taking, and which ones to avoid.
We primarily used odds from two sources when constructing this list. First, we used DraftKings.com for nearly all wagers. Second, we used TheLines.com to supplement with some addition wagers. All bets assume a full 16 game season in 2020 (and would be nullified by the sports book you used if that did not occur).
I was disappointed that there were not any wagers available on Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman or Damien Williams, but alas, here we are.
Travis Kelce
Total Receptions O/U – 93.5 (-120)
If you’re unfamiliar with sports gambling abbreviations and numbers, here’s what this means: this means that if you took the bet, you’d be choosing whether or not Kelce had over (more than) or under (less than) 93.5 receptions during the 2020 season. -120 means that regardless of which side you wager on, you’ll need to wager $120 in order to potentially win $100 (so the payout would be $220 on a $120 wager).
In order to reach 94 receptions (the over), Kelce needs to average almost six receptions per game. Kelce has 103 and 97 receptions over the last two seasons, but failed to break 90 in his four other seasons in the league. The Chiefs have a lot of weapons and quarterback Patrick Mahomes will likely spread the ball around.
Recommendation: Pass on this bet
Total Yards O/U – 1100.5 (-110)
All the above vernacular applies except that for this bet you need only wage $110 in order to win $100 ($210 payout for a winning bet). Kelce has over 1100 yards in three of the last four seasons (and missed a game in 2017 or he likely would have that year, too). The gamble here is whether or not Kelce stays healthy, because there is no question he’ll have over 100 targets if he plays 16 games, and the Chiefs offense is going to be very difficult to stop. Injuries have not been an issue for Kelce.
Recommendation: Take the Over
Total Touchdowns O/U – 7.5 (Over: -130; Under: -110)
This is the first bet we’ve seen where the odds are different depending on which side you choose. -130 versus -110 means that Kelce is favored to have eight or more scores in 2020 (payout is less per $100 wagered).
Here’s the thing, though: Kelce only has eight or more touchdowns in two of his six seasons in the NFL, and only had five a season ago when the Chiefs had less weapons (the team lost no skill position players and added first round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Recommendation: Take the Under
Lead the League in Receiving Yards +2200
+2200 means that if you were to bet $100 on Kelce leading the league in receiving yards, and he did so, you’d win $2200 – that’s a huge payout! However, we talked in the beginning about sucker bets. This is one of them. Not only does Kelce rarely catch “deep” passes, he’s also comparatively slow. In addition, the Chiefs are absolutely stacked on offense.
Recommendation: Pass on this bet
Offensive Player of the Year +5000
The number ($100 bet to win $5000) is tempting – but there is no way that Travis Kelce will be named the Offensive Player of the Year – he plays the wrong position and his load share is not high enough.
Recommendation: Pass on this bet
Tyreek Hill
Total Receptions O/U – 69.5 (-120)
Many of the bets on Tyreek Hill should be decided on whether or not you think the All-Pro wideout can stay healthy for 16 games. During the course of this offseason, Hill has been working out (ridiculously) in an effort to do just that. In 2018, when fully healthy for 16 games, Hill had 87 receptions on 137 targets. In 2019, even with only playing in 12 games, the speedster still had 89 targets, but recorded only 58 receptions. 2020 should fall somewhere in the middle.
Recommendation: Take the Over
Total Receiving Yards O/U – 1150.5 (-110)
Like his receptions total, whether or not you’re betting on Hill to have over 1151 receiving yards depends on whether or not you think he’s going to be healthy for 16 games. Hill had only 860 yards in 12 games in 2019, but had 1183 in 15 games in 2017 and 1479 yards in 2018. Hill has stated that his goal is to eclipse 2000 yards this season, which seems unlikely given the talented arsenal around him. Nonetheless, expect him to be healthy.
Recommendation: Take the Over
Total Receiving Touchdowns O/U – 6.5 (-120)
This way may not matter if Hill plays in 10 games or 16 games – this offense is going to be prolific – like, 2018 prolific, and maybe even better. In that season, Hill had 12 touchdown receptions. In 2019, even while missing four games, “Cheetah” had seven receiving scores. This may be the easiest bet of all to make.
Recommendation: Take the Over
Lead the League in Receiving Yards +1400
If you believe in Tyreek Hill’s ability to surpass 2000 receiving yards, then you should most certainly take this bet, because no receiver in the history of the National Football League has done so. But, its precisely because it’s never been done that this feels like a sucker bet.
Recommendation: Pass on this bet
Offensive Player of the Year +4000
Wide receiver Michael Thomas was named the AP Offensive Player of the Year in 2019 after breaking the record for most receptions in a single season (149) and recording the seventh most receiving yards in a single season all time (1725). The New Orleans Saints All-Pro added nine touchdown receptions to round out his OPOY resume. Can Tyreek Hill surpass two of those three totals? Does it matter if Carolina Panthers running back has another season with over 2000 yards from scrimmage?
Recommendation: Pass on this bet
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Offensive Rookie of the Year +700
If the Kansas City Chiefs are right about the potential of first round draft pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire, then winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award is certainly in play. No Chiefs player has ever won the award, but there are factors at play here that make the former LSU superstar a decent bet. First, he’s not going to be asked to carry the entire offense. Second, Andy Reid is a genius. Third, Patrick Mahomes. And finally, the Chiefs are going to play in innumerable high profile games during the season.
Recommendation: Take this bet
Total Rushing Yards O/U – 750.5 (-110)
While we think that CEH will have an outstanding rookie season, it is difficult to gauge how and where is impact will be felt the most (rushing or receiving). That, coupled with the facts that: Kansas City has a very strong/deep stable of running backs; and, the Chiefs do not really run the ball a tremendous amount. It is tempting to take the under here – but at -110, it’s not worth the risk.
Recommendation: Pass on this bet
Total Yards from Scrimmage O/U – 1100.5 (-110)
All of the same theories above apply here. If Edwards-Helaire surpasses 1000 total yards this season, it will be a great season for the rookie. A lot of people want to compare the young Chief to former Reid running back Brian Westbrook, he didn’t surpass 1000 yards from scrimmage until year three. once again, it is tempting to go under – but the payoff isn’t good enough to justify the bet.
Recommendation: Pass on this bet
Lead the League in Rushing Yards +4000
This would be a bad, bad bet to consider taking. The Chiefs are not a run heavy team, CEH will not approach 300 carries (or even 200), and Patrick Mahomes exists.
Recommendation: Pass on this bet
Patrick Mahomes
Total Passing Yards O/U – 4500 (-110)
Shockingly enough, you’re not going to get great odds to bet on Super Bowl LIV MVP, quarterback Patrick Mahomes to be great. He has had the greatest two year stretch to start a career in the history of the NFL.
Through three seasons, Mahomes has started 31 games and passed for 9412 yards, an average of 303.6 per game. That average extrapolated over 16 games puts Mahomes on pace for 4857 yards per season, average. Factor in the reality that this will be the best group of weapons the Chiefs have had for their superstar quarterback, and you get the idea.
Recommendation: Take this bet
Total Passing Touchdowns O/U – 34.5 (-110 Over; +110 Under)
Patrick Mahomes has averaged 2.4 passing touchdowns per game started over his 31 NFL games. Extrapolated, that works out to 38 passing touchdowns per season. Taking the over is the slight favorite here, so you’re not getting a great return, but you should not be tempted to take the underdog bet here. I’d take the over at 39.5, so 34.5 feels like a steal.
Recommendation: Take this bet
Offensive Player of the Year +800
There is a trend in the way that we’re betting Patrick Mahomes this year and if you have not caught on yet: Patrick Mahomes is going to have the best season of his career. When he does that, he’ll sweep the postseason awards, just like he did in 2018. And, bonus! You’re getting 8-to-1 odds here!
Recommendation: Take this bet
Most Valuable Player +400
You’re getting 4-to-1 odds to essentially bet on Patrick Mahomes to be better in 2020 than Lamar Jackson. You already know where we’re going with this one.
Recommendation: Take this bet
Defensive Players
Willie Gay, Jr. – Defensive Rookie of the Year +2000
Put us in the group of people who believe that Kansas City Chiefs second round draft pick Willie Gay, Jr. is going to be an outstanding NFL linebacker. There are some Chiefs-specific factors that make us believe he has a legitimate chance to be the fourth Kansas City rookie awarded Defensive Rookie of the Year. First, he’s going to be the best linebacker on the team. Second, he’s joining a great, cohesive unit with outstanding leadership. Third, he’s in a defense with All-Pro’s which means he doesn’t have to make every play himself. Finally – the same logic above for CEH applies; Gay, Jr. will play in a lot of high profile games this year.
Recommendation: Take this bet
Tyrann Mathieu – Defensive Player of the Year +4000
There is a legitimate argument that safety Tyrann Mathieu should have been the Defensive Player of the Year a season ago. The problem was that none of his stats jumped off the page (two sacks, four interception, 75 tackles – nothing outstanding). But, no player in the NFL radically transformed a defense through willpower and leadership the way “The Landlord” did in 2019. The playoffs really put this on display for the nation, and he’ll be on a short list of options for voters in 2020. These odds might be a little too good for Mathieu, but for the bettor 40-to-1 odds makes it a good gamble.
Recommendation: Take this bet
Chris Jones – Defensive Player of the Year +5000
These odds seems a little high of defensive tackle Chris Jones. He sits in a tie at around the 28th highest odds according to DraftKings to take home the Defensive Player of the Year Award at 50-to-1 odds. While Aaron Donald’s historic back-to-back honors (2017 and 2018) make it feasible for an interior defensive lineman to win the award, comparing Jones to Donald would be dishonest. CJ is a great player, and certainly one of the top three at his position in the NFL – but he’s not DPOY material (yet).
Recommendation: Pass on this Bet
Frank Clark – Defensive Player of the Year +15000
Defensive end Frank Clark is pulling down 150-to-1 odds to win Defensive Player of the Year – and that’s incredibly disrespectful. What’s more, he has the same odds as San Francisco 49ers pass rusher Dee Ford – and that’s laughable! It’s debatably true that “The Shark” had the best final six weeks of the season of any player in the NFL in 2019. In the playoffs, he was a nightmare for opposing offenses and came up with several huge plays, including two game-ending sacks. He’s not a great bet to win the award, but with these odds, which should be close to where Chris Jones is, taking the risk sounds fun.
Recommendation: Take this bet
Team Bets
NFL Team with the Fewest Wins +10000
Honestly, you could give us 1m-to-1 odds (instead of 100-to-1 as it currently sits), and there is still a zero percent chance that taking the bet would make any sense at all. No one should gamble a single dollar one the Chiefs being the worst team in the NFL in 2020.
Recommendation: Hard Pass on this Bet
To Win the AFC West (-455)
The odds are terrible – but the Kansas City Chiefs have won four straight division titles and the only thing standing between them and a fifth is Denver Broncos quarterback Drew Lock. You’re not going to get a big payoff here (gambling $455 to win $100), but this is about as sure of a bet as you can get.
Recommendation: Take this bet
Total Regular Season Wins O/U – 11.5 (-121)
It is bizarre to me that the Chiefs have favored odds (-121) to win 12 or more games in 2020. That is a huge win total from the oddsmakers and yet, they still won’t give you even money to take them. Even still, looking at the Chiefs schedule, it seems almost unfathomable that the team would lose four games, let alone five.
Recommendation: Take this bet
Most Regular Season Wins +450
The best team in football, and the experts are still give us 4.5-to-1 odds on being the #1 seed in the AFC Playoffs. I do not believe in Lamar Jackson as a candidate to repeat his 2019 season, which makes this bet a slam dunk.
Recommendation: Take this bet
Andy Reid to win Coach of the Year +2000
It seems absurd that Andy Reid has only been named the NFL Coach of the Year a single time (2002) in his illustrious, Hall of Fame career. But, before “Big Red” calls it a career, expect the Associated Press voters to give the man some more award-love. That will start when he follows up a Super Bowl championship with having the best regular season record in football.
Recommendation: Take this bet
To Make the Playoffs or Not (-1115 to make; +675 to not)
The Chiefs aren’t going to miss the playoffs in 2020, so taking a bet with less than 1-to-10 payout or less than 7-to-1 odds (depending on which way you took it) is a terrible bet. There is no reward here, move on.
Recommendation: Pass on this Bet
To Win the AFC Championship +300
If you believe that Kansas City is the best team in the AFC, then the fact that you’re getting a 3-to-1 payoff to bet on that being true seems like a good deal! There are three contenders to the throne in 2020: Baltimore (vote no on Lamar), Buffalo (call us when they win the division), and Indianapolis (yes, that Philip Rivers). Might as well pay us now.
Recommendation: Take this bet
To Win Super Bowl LV +600
The defending Super Bowl Champions return 20 of 22 starters and lost only three total players (including those two) who contributed meaningfully to the Super Bowl LIV victory. The Chiefs also withstood some really awful injury luck in 2019, detailed here, in which 17 players were placed on injured reserve and starters alone missed more than a dozen starts.Couple those facts with the fact that there is functionally no offseason work, likely no preseason, and you understand why taking the favorites is still a great bet (at 6-to-1 odds!).
Recommendation: Take this bet
For Any Team to be 16-0 this season +1200; To Be 19-0 +3000; for just the Chiefs +2500
This could be tempting for the true Chiefs’ homers who believe the team could run the table, but reality is much different. There is a reason that only two teams in NFL history have completed undefeated regular seasons, it is really hard to do. The Chiefs have a difficult schedule that includes road games against both conferences 2019 #1 seeds. The Tennessee regular season game a year ago also proves – sometimes bad luck just happens.
Recommendation: Pass on this Bet