Chiefs vs. Titans: Major storylines for the AFC Championship

The Chiefs upward offensive trend should continue

This is obvious, but the Chiefs offense was downright lethal on Sunday.The Chiefs broke 35 for only the third time this season and broke 50 for the first time in 419 days. Maybe that last point seems silly, but there were legitimate analysts who believed the Chiefs would accomplish that feat multiple times this season. Peter Schrager of Good Morning Football even predicted the Chiefs would surpass 60 points in a contest this season.

Is this a sign of things to come, or merely just a blip on the radar with the Chiefs likely regressing to somewhere closer to their season average? This wouldn’t be awful, seeing as their points per game average was still incredibly respectable at 28.2. However, I think I speak for all of Chiefs Kingdom when I say I’d like to see two more dominating performances like the one we witnessed against the Texans. Is that realistic?

This is just my opinion, but I think what we saw on Sunday can and likely will be duplicated against the Titans. For starters, the first game the Chiefs played against the Titans was Mahomes’ first game back from his gruesome knee injury. People may forget, he absolutely dominated that game completing 72 percent of his passes for 433 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Some may also remember the miscues, drops and fumble by a number of the Chiefs skill players and the schematic lethargy Reid showed late in the game. It’s possible both those things happen again, but I’m willing to bet that last Sunday’s game was a light bulb moment for this offense. I expect them to come out focused, angry, and ready to lay some heavy blows early in this game.

Let’s also not forget the offensive line situation this team faced in Week 10. Going into that game they were missing starters Eric Fisher and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif. During the game, the Chiefs even lost Mitchell Schwartz for a time and Martinas Rankin for the season. The offensive line is far healthier and more consistent now, only giving up four hits and one sack against a vaunted Texans pass rush.

Last but not least, this game is at home. Tennessee is not necessarily known as an extremely daunting place to play. However, playing at home in the playoffs is a huge advantage to the home team on offense and a huge disadvantage to the opponent. All this to say, Mahomes and this offense should be primed to have a similar if not even better performance against the Titans this time around.

Personnel designations reflect the coaching staff’s opinion of the opponent

This is a subjective argument, but I think that the main reason the Chiefs lost the first game against the Titans was largely due to one personnel decision and the mentality it demonstrated. Mike Pennel had been playing extremely well in his brief stint with the team before the Titans game, especially against the run, yet the coaching staff opted to activate Joey Ivie for this game in his place. Presumably, Ivie was smaller and his game was more suited than Pennel’s to rushing the passer.

You may think to yourself, one personnel move can’t really be the reason the team lost, could it? It’s not like the coaching staff deactivated an All Pro player like Chris Jones or Frank Clark. Sure, Pennel is a nice player but he’s not exactly the most integral piece to the Chiefs defensive puzzle.

All of those points are valid, and I’m not actually saying that deactivating Pennel was the reason the Chiefs lost. However, I think the deactivation of Pennel was a symptom of something deeper that would ultimately cost the Chiefs the game. The sickness in question was the underestimation of the Titans football team, something that the Chiefs have actually seemed to have some challenges with the last several years.

I think the Chiefs looked at Derrick Henry, and while he had been productive and was obviously their main weapon this season, they believed they’d have the lead early in the contest and the Titans would abandon the run. Because of that, Ivie would be a much more valuable asset late in the first half and the entirety of the second half.

Unfortunately, while the Chiefs did jump out to an early lead, it wasn’t enough to force the Titans to abandon the run. Instead, they pounded the run game with Henry and the Chiefs defense faltered. If I had to guess, the Chiefs defense spent much more time focusing on stopping the pass than the run and were less than prepared for the actual eventuality.

If I’m being honest, I think the Titans have been underestimated a lot this season. The benefit this time around is that the cat is out of the bag. The Titans are clearly a good team, and what they want to do is run the ball as much as possible. It may seem silly, but knowing that coming into this game gives the Chiefs an advantage they didn’t have the last contest. Their offense isn’t particularly dynamic, and therefore doesn’t have a lot of surprises up its sleeve. The Chiefs know roughly what to expect and should be in better position to stop, or at least slow the Titans offense on Sunday.