Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and his (in)evitable regression

Alex Smith

Reid’s first and only starting quarterback until Mahomes, Alex Smith had the best stretch of his career with the team and Reid. In his first season, he started just fifteen games yet still had impressive numbers, and slowed zero signs of slowing down the following season.

2013 (15 games, first season with Reid)

308/508 completions/attempts, 3313 passing yards, 60.6% completion rate, 23 touchdowns, 7 interceptions; 431 rushing yards, 1 touchdown

Smith’s 2013 campaign was beyond impressive. His 3.2 TD to INT ratio was outstanding and had nearly no regression the following year. Although credited as a game manager, a playing style in direct contrast to Mahomes, Smith was still able to put up decent numbers with Reid under the helm. A look at the next season shows that Smith had decent 2014 numbers even after putting up a good season in 2013.

2014 (15 games started, second season with Reid)

303/464 completions/attempts, 3265 yards, 65.3% completion rate, 18 touchdowns, 6 interceptions; 254 rush yards, 1 touchdown

Conclusion

While regression standards in the NFL tend to deal with more high-caliber seasons (such as Mahomes’ 2018 campaign), these examples still provide readers with a look into just how Reid is with quarterbacks.

Reid is not the type of coach to watch a player, more specifically a quarterback, botch a game and then wait to talk to him about it in the locker room or the following day. No, Reid is the type of coach who will sit with him on the sideline and break down what went wrong. He will calm the player’s nerves and make sure he is ready to perform at the best level he can.

Reid has his flaws, but he has consistently proven himself to be one of the most innovative offensive minds in the National Football League. He has used this innovative mind to propel the Chiefs to the forefront of the league and the Chiefs offense is feared (and copied) league-wide for good reason.

While most of the work falls on the shoulders of Mahomes, Reid and the electrifying young gunslinger will be able to prove to doubters why he should not fall into the stigma of a ‘sophomore slump. It is almost impossible to draw comparisons to Mahomes as a player and any idea of regression simply because the league has quite literally never seen a player with his skill set and unique play style.

Simply put, if history truly does repeat itself, Mahomes will not show signs of regression or experience a slump throughout the 2019 campaign. The only reason for a potential drop in numbers is the defense and its potential, leading to lesser-scoring games.