Patrick Mahomes had an incredible first year starting in the NFL, so what can we expect from the reigning MVP’s encore at the helm of the Chiefs’ offense?
I don’t know how the rest of Kansas City Chiefs fans are spending their time, but I have been surviving the football offseason by living on Patrick Mahomes’ highlights. In only his second year in the league, he had arguably one of the best seasons a quarterback has ever had—one which culminated in an NFL MVP win. It was breathtaking to watch live, and it is still amazing to watch over and over after the fact.
Understandably, there have been rumblings from national pundits and Chiefs fans alike of the dreaded “sophomore slump.” The idea here is that now, after a year of tape has become available, all of the brilliant defensive minds in the NFL will have a chance to dissect his plays and find a way to slow him down. Or worse, nullify his ability altogether.
This has happened so many times. Quarterbacks like Robert Griffin III and Dak Prescott are some of the most recent examples that come to mind. These players had spectacular first years as a starting quarterback. However, they followed that up with dismal campaigns and, at least in RGIII’s case, he is no longer a starter in the NFL.
As fans, we expect history to repeat itself. As fans of the Chiefs, we might still have this idea in the back of our heads that somehow Mahomes is too good to be true. Perhaps his first season starting was an anomaly and a fun one at that, but to expect anywhere close to that production now that professional defensive coordinators have all this tape is just setting us up for disappointment.
A Subjective View
Fortunately, Mahomes has some major advantages over the players mentioned and those not.
The first is the fact that he is actually coming into his third year. He had a year to sit under a seasoned veteran and watch from the sidelines how to prepare and how to win. A year to sit and learn is undervalued. When the pressure isn’t on you personally, a different kind of learning takes place.
Having space to safely fail at the highest level is rare and also extremely beneficial, and Mahomes had this in spades. Michael Jordan used to talk about getting pulled for a short time in Game 6 of the NBA Finals against the Portland Trailblazers in ’92 when he was struggling. He said that watching his teammates execute had a calming effect on him. It slowed the game down and allowed him to execute more effectively as he re-entered the fray.
This is essentially what Mahomes had his first year. He was able to fail in practice and in the film room without it mattering, and I think it made him a better player.
The second advantage is Mahomes’ incredibly adaptive football mind. This is not a slight to players like RGIII and Prescott. It’s more an indication that Mahomes is on a completely different level than most players in the league.
I remember watching Mahomes’ first start against the Denver Broncos. He had choppy footwork. Footwork isn’t everything for a quarterback, but it’s definitely important. His early footwork was not great.
Nevertheless, in 2019 his footwork was incredible. That’s not to say he didn’t occasionally fall back into old habits, because he did. But the way he moved inside the pocket was, in a word, beautiful. It was very evident from the first game, where he made moving in and out of the pocket look easy.
Then there are the games against the New England Patriots from last season. In the first halves of both games, Mahomes struggled. He was noticeably amped, threw errant passes, and just seemed out of sorts. A lot of that came down to the way Belichick schemed against him—a mix of disguised coverages and manufactured pressure gave Mahomes and Reid headaches. He was a rookie, after all, and these were things he hadn’t seen much of yet.
In both situations, Mahomes’ responded successfully coming out of the locker room. In the first game, only his seventh as a starter, he came out on fire in the second half. He threw four touchdowns with no interceptions. While the team ultimately came up short, it really had nothing to do with Mahomes’ play.
The second game was virtually identical. After struggling in the first half, Mahomes allegedly told the team at halftime that they’d score thirty in the second half. They actually scored 31. Mahomes was individually spectacular, throwing three touchdowns and leading the team down the field for a tying field goal with only 32 seconds left. Some of the throws, including first one of that drive, were incredible.
These are just a couple examples, one on his fundamentals and one on his in-game execution, of how Mahomes adapts his game rapidly to become a better quarterback. This doesn’t even take into account the first game against the Broncos and the game against the Ravens. In both, he showed the maturity of a veteran in his response to difficult situations. I expect this to continue.
The third advantage is Andy Reid. It might not always seem like it, because coaches can have a great year here and there, but there are few coaches who are consistently great. Andy Reid is a consistently great coach. He wins wherever he goes with whoever is on his team.
That’s not to say he hasn’t had a rough year here or there. All coaches do. But, Andy is in the top ten in all-time wins for a reason. He knows how to get the most out of his players.
This is probably Mahomes’ biggest advantage. It would be easy for Mahomes to develop a big ego, but Andy is actually a good reminder of the idea that, even if you have a great season or even career, your legacy will ultimately be built on championships. The fact he has a fantastic coach who is still hungry for a championship should help Mahomes stay focused.
Now, is it possible that defensive coordinators identify innate, unchangeable aspects of Mahomes’ playing character? Yes, that’s absolutely a possibility.
But I’d say, with the way Mahomes has produced and these factors mentioned, this is a highly unlikely outcome.
An Objective View
These subjective arguments are great, but what can we expect statistically from Mahomes in his second year starting? Last year, I predicted Mahomes’ first year stats by comparing the first years of Donovan Mcnabb and Alex Smith and then applying a multiplier for Mahomes’ talent and the Chiefs’ current personnel. You can find that piece here, for reference.
Obviously, I way undershot his production. I thought if he came close to duplicating Alex Smith’s 2017 campaign, Chiefs’ Kingdom would collectively be doing cartwheels. Incredibly, he surpassed everyone’s wildest expectations and had one of the greatest seasons a quarterback has ever had.
Here’s the thing: Patrick Mahomes is on another level than Donovan McNabb or Alex Smith ever were, so these players aren’t a good comparison any longer. Considering Mahomes had one of the greatest seasons a quarterback has ever had, it’s more relevant to compare him to the players whose seasons he’s competing against.
In this case I decided to compare Mahomes to a handful of the most recent spectacular quarterback seasons in the last 20 years. The players included are Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, and Drew Brees. The table is pictured below.
Here is a brief explanation of the table. These are five quarterbacks who, in the last 20 years, had arguably some of the best seasons ever. Each player’s best season is the first in line. Following this, in the table, is each player’s next full season. As you’ll notice, both Brady and Warner skip a year as each was injured for part or all of the year following their peak year.
From these two seasons, I calculated each players improvement or regression from their peak year to the following year for all statistical categories pictured. As you can see, in almost all categories these players regressed from their peak year. These results are highlighted in orange.
Finally, I took the average of each statistical categories’ improvement or regression for the five players and applied that multiplier to Patrick Mahomes’ 2018 statistics. These results are highlighted in yellow.
So, based on this small model, Mahomes will throw for 4,851 yards, with 39 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. He will complete 64% of his passes and have a passer rating of 100. In other words, this predicts he will regress in every major category, but still have a statistically great season.
Now, this prediction is derived from only five player’s seasonal transitions. In reality, the more members of a sample that you have the more reliable a prediction and vice versa. Unfortunately, there aren’t too many seasons in the last generation or two of quarterbacks comparable to Mahomes’ 2018 campaign. As such, five will have to do for now.
Given the small sample size, and the low statistical reliability, I’d look at this as the floor for Mahomes’ 2019 campaign. My gut tells me he won’t throw for 50 touchdowns two seasons in a row, as that would be a Herculean feat never before accomplished.
But, I do think he will likely come close to 5,000 yards, 45 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. The main statistical improvement I think we’ll see is his completion percentage. These stats would likely put him in the conversation for a consecutive MVP award, and I think most Chiefs’ fans would be satisfied with this encore.
Conclusion
Mahomes absolutely electrified the NFL in 2018. He had one of the best seasons we’ve seen in a long time, and arguably one of the best of all time. He single-handedly brought Chiefs’ fans’ hopes and dreams of a Super Bowl back from the dead. In a word, it was incredible.
Luckily for Chiefs’ fans, he has a good chance to repeat those mythical heroics—or at least come close. Mahomes has the brains, the coaching, the team, and history on his side. Whether he tops 2018 or not, it’s unlikely that opposing defensive coordinators will have the savvy or the personnel to slow him down for long.