The Kansas City Chiefs have to face the New England Patriots and their legendary playoff track record in the AFC championship game. Here’s why KC will win.
The Kansas City Chiefs did something Saturday that they hadn’t done in 25 years. They won a home playoff game. The Chiefs 31-13 win over the Indianapolis Colts accomplished several things. It broke a home playoff game losing streak that spanned a quarter century. It also ended their streak of painful playoff loses at the hands of the Colts. There would be no “Lin Elliott game” or “no punt game” this time around. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs vanquished all those demons in one fell swoop.
However, this game did more than just free the Chiefs from their past. It also set their future on the AFC championship game. Their opponent? Only the most successful team, coach and quarterback in the history of the NFL.
The New England Patriots with coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady have been an almost unstoppable force. They’ve won five Super Bowls together and perhaps even more impressive is that they’ve made the AFC championship game in 13 of their 16 trips to the playoffs. Despite another good season this was supposed to be the year that the Patriots began to fall off. Brady is getting old. Rob Gronkowski‘s body has simply taken too much damage. Their time was supposed to be up. Then, on Sunday, they made a bold statement that said otherwise as they dominated the Los Angeles Chargers 41-28 (and the game wasn’t even as close as that final score would indicate).
So this is the point where many may want to predict that the Chiefs—with their first year starting quarterback and one of the league’s worst statistical defenses—should probably accept the fact that their season is about to come to an end at the hands of the greatest team/coach/quarterback in the history of the NFL.
I’m here to tell you I don’t think that’s going to be the case. The Chiefs shouldn’t be content with just breaking playoff losing streaks and hosting an AFC championship game. No, the Chiefs should 100% believe that they are going to win this game and I’ve got three big reasons why.
Let’s start with the primary one.
Before anyone even starts thinking about the fact that the Patriots have already beaten the Chiefs this season, I want to address it.
Yes, the Patriots beat the Chiefs earlier this season—in New England. Why do I stress the fact that the game was in New England? Because no other team in the NFL had a more drastic discrepancy between home and away games. The Patriots are a perfect 9-0 (including their playoff win) at home this season. Not only were they undefeated at home, but their average margin of victory was 15.9 points. So not only do they win at home, but it isn’t even close (usually).
The road is another story. This same Patriots team that pummels most opponents at home doesn’t even have a winning record on the road. That’s right, New England is just 3-5 on the road this season.
Now surely if the Patriots had that hard of a time on the road, it must have been because (like the Chiefs) they faced so many high-quality opponents on the road. Right? Well, not so fast. Those five road losses were to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Miami Dolphins, and Pittsburgh Steelers. In case you weren’t keeping tabs at home, NONE of those teams made the playoffs. The Patriots faced just one playoff team on the road this season (the Chicago Bears) and still went just 3-5 in those games.
So at home, the Patriots were an unstoppable force (like we saw against the Chargers on Sunday) and on the road, they went just 2-5 against non-playoff teams. Oh, and by the way, the one and only team to go into Foxboro and lose by less than a touchdown? That’s right, your Kansas City Chiefs who lost by just three points on a last-second field goal. Every other team lost by at least a touchdown or more.
To make matters worse for the Patriots, the Chiefs have been excellent at home this season, boasting a 9-1 record with their latest playoff win factored in. The Chiefs only home loss coming at the hands of the Chargers late in the season. So the Patriots already have issues on the road and now they have to travel to Arrowhead Stadium, home of the loudest fans in the NFL to face a team that is 9-1 at home this year. I like those odds.
If you’re still not convinced yet, let’s dig into those five New England loses a little more and see if there are any other reasons that KC fans should feel optimistic.
All in all, the New England Patriots have had an average defense this season. They finished the year allowing 359.1 yards per game (21st in the NFL) and 20.3 points (7th in the NFL). However, those numbers do take a substantial jump up on the road where they averaged 398.9 yards and 24 points per game. Now keep in mind that the Chiefs were able to put up 40 points and 446 yards on the Patriots in Foxboro and it certainly seems reasonable to think that the Chiefs will be able to put up some points and yards on New England this weekend in Arrowhead.
That happens to be exactly what happened in the Patriots other loses this season. In their five losses, they allowed 413.4 yards and 28.4 points per game. Now, if you took the yards and points allowed in KC’s loses it would look even worse but I do think it’s worth pointing out that the key to beating New England wasn’t a low scoring defensive game it was to run up points on them and that plays right into the Chiefs strengths.
It is also worth noting that in their five losses, the Patriots allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 13 touchdowns and just four interceptions compared to their eleven regular season wins where they allowed 16 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. So the quarterbacks that beat the Patriots averaged 2.6 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions and the quarterbacks that lost to the Patriots averaged 1.5 touchdowns and 1.3 interceptions. Which one more closely resembles a Patrick Mahomes stat line?
Finally, the other factor in the Patriots losses was the pass rush that opposing teams were able to get on Tom Brady. Much like Andrew Luck with the Colts, Brady is one of the least sacked quarterbacks in the NFL. On the season he was only sacked 21 times. However, in their five losses, Brady was sacked a total of ten times. That’s almost half of the sacks that New England allowed all season in just those five games.
This isn’t a coincidence. Getting pressure on Brady is one of the best ways to throw the Patriots offense off balance. Thankfully for Chiefs fans, Kansas City was tied for the league lead in sacks this season and showed last week that, despite the great protection numbers Luck had all season, the Chiefs were still able to get to him totaling three sacks and many more pressures.
So to sum things up, the New England Patriots lost this season when they went on the road and their opponents were able to both rack up some points and get pressure on the quarterback. That’s three big check marks in Kansas City’s favor and this isn’t even taking into account the all-around improved defensive play that the Chiefs had against Indianapolis. If the defense can play that well again then this team is almost unbeatable.
Now, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots should never be written off or counted out. They proved this past weekend that they are still alive and dangerous. However, I believe that things will be a little different this week when they have to leave the comfortable confines of Foxboro and travel to the very hostile environment of Arrowhead Stadium. Their track record on the road this season backs that up.
Kansas City fans may be able to breathe easy now that many of the demons of playoff failures past have been vanquished, but I really hope they show up in force on Sunday just as loud, just as hostile, and just as passionate because the ultimate goal of this season has not been reached yet. There are very good reasons to believe that the Kansas City Chiefs can beat the New England Patriots on Sunday. Which means there are very good reasons for fans to finally believe that we may just get to see our beloved Kansas City Chiefs make the Super Bowl.