What can Kansas City Chiefs’ fans expect from Patrick Mahomes given the comparison between Donovan McNabb and Alex Smith?
By now, every single diehard Kansas City Chiefs’ fan has likely watched some or all of Patrick Mahomes’ highlights while playing at Texas Tech. If you have, you know there was no shortage of spectacular plays. However, past success does not necessarily indicate future success. This is even more certain when discussing college quarterbacks transitioning to the NFL.
Many believe it is ultimately the player in question who is responsible for his success. While the player, his talent, and his mentality are important, there is another factor that could arguably be more integral.
Most top-notch college quarterbacks end up transitioning into the NFL through organizations on a downward spiral. These may be organizations whose short-term coach has not been successful and his last shot is a top-ten pick, who hopefully is a quarterback. Or, they may be organizations on the rebound with a new coaching staff and new direction, but little in the way of track record.
This is where we acknowledge the ever-critical factor that arguably plays the biggest role in a young quarterback’s development: the system. Mahomes has the good fortune of walking into arguable one of the best and most consistent systems in the NFL. You may say that Andy Reid has a history of conservatism, poor clock management, etc. You would be correct, but you’d also have to acknowledge the fact that Reid has shown a proclivity for getting the best out of his players.
Every coach has their faults, and Reid is no exception. But, Mahomes has a spectacular place to start his career when compared to most young quarterbacks. With this in mind, let’s take a look back at Reid’s longest tenured quarterbacks, Donovan McNabb and Alex Smith, in the hopes that we might predict the success Mahomes will have in 2018.
Donovan McNabb
Prior to Reid and McNabb, the Philadelphia Eagles had been humming along in mediocrity for quite some time. Their last Super Bowl appearance was in 1980, which they lost to the Oakland Raiders, and they had not made it past the divisional round of the playoffs since. Specifically, the last two years of 1997 and 1998 had seen the team reach a new low, posting an 8-24 record. This resulted in the firing of Ray Rhodes with a final record of 30-36-1, and the hiring of first time NFL head coach Andy Reid. With Reid’s first pick in the 1999 NFL Draft, he selected quarterback for the Syracuse Orange, Donovan McNabb.
This was a risky choice given the circumstances. The 1999 NFL draft featured five quarterback selections in the first 12 picks. Each of them, from Cade McCown to Akili Smith, was highly touted and believed to be the next great NFL quarterback. In fact, every team in the first four picks selected a quarterback. Given the Eagles took McNabb at selection two, there was the risk they missed out on three other quarterbacks. History shows us this was not the case.
At Syracuse, McNabb started four seasons finishing with 35 wins to only 14 losses. During his time there, McNabb ran a sprint out, option style offense with some pro-style options worked in. In terms of schematics, it was a relatively simple scheme in which the quarterback chooses one side of the field to ‘sprint out’ to and through reading that side either picks a receiver or runs the football. Given the nature of this scheme, most opponents he faced played man coverage, limiting the defensive looks McNabb saw in college.
McNabb was very successful statistically in college. He was the Big East Conference Player of the Year three times, throwing for 8,389 yards and 77 touchdowns. He was also fifth in the 1998 Heisman voting. But, given the simplistic style of offense the Orange ran, a common question was whether he could duplicate this success in the NFL.
Luckily for McNabb, he was drafted by a coach who would be one of the most successful over the following decade. Reid is known to have a tremendously technical and difficult offensive scheme. Given McNabb’s college scheme, most would have seen this as a challenging transition. But, through Reid’s tutelage, McNabb blossomed into one of the most consistently great quarterbacks of his generation. He finished his career with the Eagles owning most of their passing records, throwing for 32,873 yards and 216 touchdowns.
McNabb was a great college athlete, with a big arm, who made good decisions. He was extremely successful in the NFL and was recently nominated for the NFL Hall of Fame. Interestingly though, the five other quarterbacks in the draft were all highly touted, athletic, good decisions makers and yet none of them sustained the same level of success. In fact, Cade McCown and Tim Couch each finished higher in the 1998 Heisman voting than McNabb. The major difference between these players’ and McNabb’s career is Andy Reid. Let’s take a look at Alex Smith’s career and see how the “Reid Effect” has impacted him.
Alex Smith
Prior to Reid & Smith, the Kansas City Chiefs’ organization had spent most of the last decade in the middle or bottom of league rankings. Their previous two seasons had seen the firing of two head coaches after consecutive abysmal campaigns. To most Chiefs’ fans, all seemed lost. Most had accepted the fact that the team would likely never be consistently competitive. What else would be realistic to believe. The nine years following the spectacular 2003 regular season saw the team go 55-89. There was not much to cheer for. But, luckily for Chiefs fans and Smith, Andy Reid was coming to town.
One of the first moves Reid’s regime made was to trade two second-round picks for often maligned San Francisco 49ers quarterback, Alex Smith. The best way to describe Smith’s overall career is volatile. In college, he had great success in the Ute’s spread style offense. He finished fourth in the 2004 Heisman voting, was selected as the 2004 Mountain West Conference Player of the Year, and lead the Utes to victory in the Fiesta Bowl. He was ultimately drafted number one overall by the 49ers and was seen as a rising star.
Unfortunately for Smith, the 49ers would present a tumultuous beginning to his career. Over the next seven seasons, Smith played under three different head coaches and seven different offensive coordinators. This is usually a terrible situation for any quarterback, let alone a young one. Not surprisingly, Smith did not achieve much success early in his career. But, time and losses brought with it Jim Harbaugh, and Smith’s fortunes seemed to be improving.
Again, unfortunately this was not the case. After leading the 49ers to the NFC Championship game the year before, Smith got injured and was ultimately benched during the 2012 season. In Smith-like fashion however, he handled the situation with great professionalism and was eventually rewarded by being traded to the Chiefs.
With this move, Smith became an integral part of a model of consistency. Over the next 5 years, Reid and the Chiefs would maintain the core of their coaching and player personnel. With this consistency came the the longest stretch of success in Smith’s career. The team went on to win over 66 percent of its games, made the playoffs 80 percent of the time, and Smith himself made the pro-bowl three out of five years, something he had not done once as a 49er.
While the Chiefs did not win the coveted Lombardi trophy during Smith’s tenure, it was still one to remember. His career success, as well as the Chiefs’ fortunes, skyrocketed as a result of the “Reid Effect.” With this in mind, let’s take a look at arguably the most talented quarterback Reid has had the opportunity to coach.
Patrick Mahomes
With the tenth pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, the Chiefs selected Patrick Mahomes from the Texas Tech Red Raiders. For the first time in over 30 years, the Chiefs spent a first-round pick on a highly touted quarterback. Much of the 2017 season and the early 2018 offseason has focused on what it will look like once Mahomes finally takes the reigns. Given Mahomes’ propensity for play-making, his ridiculous physical talent, and his chance to have great coaching, Chiefs’ fans are understandably excited for this season. But, how does Mahomes compare to the situations Reid had with McNabb and Smith? Let’s take a look.
While at Texas Tech, Mahomes was nothing short of prolific. In his 32-game career, he completed 64 percent of his passes for 93 touchdowns, 29 interceptions, and 11,252 yards. Specifically, his final year he completed 66 percent of his passes for 41 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and 5052 yards. In probably his most incredible performance of that year, Mahomes had 819 yards in total offense, seven touchdowns, and only one interception against the Oklahoma Sooners. These stats indicate that, arguably, he is the most prolific college quarterback Reid has coached to this point.
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However, most knowledgeable fans know that Red Raider quarterbacks don’t always translate to the NFL. They are well known for producing monster stat sheets, but less than stellar NFL careers. Some believe this stems from their heavy use of spread offense concepts. This typically takes the complexity of the offense out of the quarterback’s hands and gives control to the coach. This may cause the learning curve transitioning to the NFL to simply be too great for a quarterback to overcome. Fortunately for Chiefs’ fans and Mahomes, Reid has a great track record helping quarterbacks from unique offensive situations transition into his system.
Physically, Mahomes fits the mold of the stereotypical star quarterback. His pedigree is undeniable, with his father Pat Mahomes Sr. pitching 13 years in the MLB. It’s no surprise that Mahomes possesses his rocket arm. There’s even an incredible video of him throwing the ball 80+ yards. Adding to his super human arm strength is his ability to run. In college, he rushed for 845 yards and 22 touchdowns. While these numbers are not jaw-dropping, they show Mahomes has that added dimension of running that can drive defensive coordinators mad. These factors demonstrate that, arguably, he is the most physically gifted quarterback Reid has coached.
Again, most knowledgeable fans will point to countless rookie quarterbacks who had premier physical attributes and were ultimately unsuccessful. Physical gifts are only one piece of the puzzle, and this goes for all positions. Fortunately for Chiefs’ fans and Mahomes, Reid is known to get the most out of his players. The physical tools Mahomes possesses will not go to waste under Reid.
Given the preceding comparison between Mahomes, McNabb, and Smith, what can Chiefs’ fans realistically expect for this upcoming year. More specifically, what type of individual production can we expect for Mahomes in his first full year starting in Reid’s system. Let’s take a look.
Statistical Prediction
Typically, when making predictions, one standalone method is not suitable to determine a reasonable estimation. As such, this is only the first in a series of pieces that will analyze, based on various factors, what to expect from Mahomes’ first year under center. For the purposes of this piece, I will use the first full year of production for both McNabb and Smith in Reid’s system. I have listed the results in the following image.
Here is a brief explanation of the table. McNabb’s first full season starting, 2000, is listed first. Smith’s first season in Reid’s system, 2013, is listed second. I have equalized the numbers for Smith’s 2013 campaign, since he only played in 15 games, by extrapolating the numbers for the 16th game. I then took an average of McNabb’s 2000 season and Smith’s 2013 season, as shown in the third line. Finally, I applied a multiplier of 1.2x to the average production numbers, holding attempts the same as McNabb’s 2000 season, to generate my initial prediction.
The multiplier is essentially my opinion that Patrick Mahomes has 10 percent more raw talent than either McNabb or Smith. Adding to this, the Chiefs’ receiving core is absolutely loaded. It’s logical to assume he has better weapons to throw to than either McNabb or Smith had their first year. This adds another 10 percent to the multiplier. As such, 20 percent is reasonable, if not even slightly conservative. Given Mahomes talent and apparent work ethic he should thrive in Reid’s system, even as a rookie.
Obviously, no one can predict the future. But, based on these comparisons it’s reasonable that Mahomes will have a successful first season. He’s extremely talented physically, has a great professional pedigree, and is entering a great situation with the Kansas City Chiefs. Even better, Reid is no stranger to helping quarterbacks become extremely successful in the NFL. Each of his longest tenured quarterbacks were uncertain commodities when they began, but left Reid’s system with great respect from those around the league. This is exciting, in part, because Mahomes might be the most talented quarterback Reid has ever coached.
In a follow-up piece, I’ll take a different statistical approach. I’ll look at several recent rookie quarterbacks as another way to predict what Mahomes’ statistics will be in his first full year starting. Stay tuned!