As the Chiefs hope to move to 4-0 at home against Washington, here are 3 key match-ups to watch for Monday night’s game.
Going into week 4 the Kansas City Chiefs are 3-0 at the top of the AFC. On Monday Night Football they will face their second NFC East opponent of the season, the Washington Redskins.
This will be the 10th all-time meeting between the Chiefs and Redskins since their first in 1971. Over the 9 previous meetings, the Chiefs have dominated the Redskins to the tune of a series record of 8-1. They’ve scored a total of 263 points in those games, while Washington has only managed 146. Their last matchup was back during Andy Reid’s 1st year in Kansas City when the Chiefs shellacked the Redskins 45-10.
But enough with the history lesson. What’s going on in this week’s matchup?
This week, the #1 rushing offense in the NFL takes on the #2 rushing defense in the NFL. Kareem Hunt will have his work cut out for him against the Redskins stacked front 7. Lets go ahead and take a look at what will be the deciding factors in this matchup.
Tyreek Hill vs. Redskins Secondary
The top matchup to watch will be the Chiefs top wideout against the Redskins top corner. A battle of the athlete versus the technician. So far this season Josh Norman and the Redskins rank 4th in the NFL against #1 WRs. The Redskins are giving up an average of just 4.6 receptions for 24.7 yards per game, and are ranked 2nd in defending deep passes by Football Outsiders.
The Redskins other starting corners Bashaud Breeland and Kendall Fuller are playing on the opposite end of the spectrum. Fuller is currently ranked the #6 corner in the league by PFF while Breeland is settled in at #69. Against #2 and #3-5 WRs the Redskins rank 7th and 4th respectively by Football Outsiders.
With the Redskins main weakness coming on short passes expect a lot of the usual WR screen passes with a couple flat and slant routes thrown in. It’s unknown exactly how much attention Hill will end up getting from Norman. Expect the Chiefs to move him all over the formation for the best possible matchup. Neither Breeland nor Norman are particularly quick, with both running a 4.6 in the 40-yard dash. Fuller is the fastest of the starters with a 4.48 forty.
Expect the Chiefs to play a pretty even game offensively with Hill getting about 5 catches for 80 yards.
Travis Kelce vs. Redskins Defense
Last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, tight end Travis Kelce had the least productive game of his career managing just 1 reception for 1 yard. Kelce played in 100% of the snaps but saw just 1 target. Some speculated it was a form of punishment, but it appears it was more the cards simply weren’t in his favor against the Chargers.
Coming into this game against the Redskins, Kelce will face the 30th ranked defense against tight ends. So far this season, the Redskins have allowed and average of 6.2 passes for 83.3 yards per game to tight ends.
The Redskins typically like to defend tight ends with safeties and linebackers. Against Zach Ertz a similarly athletic TE the Redskins defenders linebacker Mason Foster and safety Deshazor Everrett gave up 8 catches for 93 yards.
With the issues the Chiefs have had in pass protection, and facing one of the tougher run defenses in the league. Kelce could very well be in for another slow day. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Chiefs keep Kelce on the line to provide support for Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt. But with the Redskins particular weakness to tight ends, the matchup may be too sweet to not take advantage of. I project at least 4 catches for 55 yards and 1 touchdown.
Chiefs tackles vs. Redskins outside linebackers
The Chiefs have perhaps the most polarizing offensive line in the league. The team’s run blocking ranks 1st in the NFL by a comfortable margin, but the team’s pass blocking ranks 31st. Already this season the Chiefs have given up 12 sacks at a 12.7% adjusted sack rate.
On the other side the Redskins rank 8th in the NFL in pass rushing with an adjusted sack rate of 8.6%. So far the Redskins linebackers Preston Smith and Ryan Kerrigan have combined for 5.5 sacks through the first three weeks of the season. Both had a sack against last season’s #1 ranked pass protecting offensive line in the Oakland Raiders.
The matchup between Mitchell Schwartz and Ryan Kerrigan will perhaps be the most crucial matchup. Schwartz has underwhelmed so far this season grading as the #40 tackle in the NFL by PFF. Meanwhile he’ll be going up against the 18th graded edge player in Kerrigan.
What will help the Chiefs most in this matchup is Alex Smith is well known for his quick release and decisions. In 2017, Smith ranks second in time between snap and throw. The Redskins also suffer the most against the short passing game ranking 17th against passes less than 15 yards in the air, and no team loves the short passing game more than the Chiefs.