Why the Chiefs are allowing Dontari Poe to hit free agency

The Kansas City Chiefs will reportedly let Dontari Poe leave in free agency. Here’s why John Dorsey made that choice.

Dontari Poe was once the centerpiece of the Kansas City Chiefs front seven, an athletic wonder who anchored the middle of the defensive line with the stamina of 10 men. On Wednesday, Ian Rapoport says the Chiefs will allow Poe to explore free agency.

The move might sound a bit surprising to those who have not been watching the team closely over the last year. After all, allowing a 26-year-old, two-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle with such a rare combination of size and athleticism to head into free agency is the stuff of general manager’s dreams. However, Poe’s play, health and stamina have all declined in recent years, slowly shifting Poe from a wunderkind to an above average defensive lineman.

Certainly Poe will be a fine performer for his next team, no doubt about it. And he was truly something special to behold during his early tenure with the Chiefs. He immediately commanded double teams and earned rave reviews for his ability to push the pocket from the middle. He seemed to never come off the field, staying in for long drives one after another despite tipping the scales at 350 lbs.

The ironman reputation is the first reason why Dorsey is likely allowing Poe to leave the Chiefs at this point. We’ll get to other reasons that complicate the situation further in a moment, but it’s important to note just how much Poe has played in his first five seasons in the league.

Running backs are not the only position at which repeated reps — carries, in their case — are a concern, a la pitch counts for baseball managers. During his rookie season in 2012, Poe logged 743 defensive snaps, good for 74.4% of the total snaps possible and enough for the team lead among defensive tackles. From there, the totals skyrocket.

The following year, in 2013, Poe played an astonishing 975 defensive snaps (87.8% of the total snaps possible for the Chiefs). In 2014, that percentage climbed even higher — 944 snaps (89% of the Chiefs defensive snaps). In 2015, worries like rest and back issues began to enter the picture for the first time, unsurprising due to the Chiefs use (overuse, perhaps?) of Poe’s incredible skill set. Over the last two years, Poe has logged 759 (69.8%) and 821 (73.4%) snaps, respectively.

Let’s be clear, even in 2016, Poe was the team’s anchor across the line, the most dependable lineman for the Chiefs for the last half decade and it’s not even close. Viewing Poe’s new contract through the lens of what he has done for the team will have fans very frustrated. But looking at what he is likely to do in the future brings up several question marks.

Just as general managers worry about a running back who has logged too many carries in his career, they must also be aware of a 350 lb. defensive lineman who has played 4,242 snaps in his first five seasons.

Let’s be clear about one thing up front: the Chiefs aren’t working with a lot of cap space to begin with. Keeping every player who comes up for free agency just isn’t a reality, which means hard decisions, including goodbyes, are a part of every NFL offseason. When it comes to keeping Poe, either option before them seems cost prohibitive.

The Chiefs could technically use the franchise tag on Dontari Poe now that they’ve inked Eric Berry to a multi-year extension. This would keep Poe in house for at least the next year and allow them time to come to a long-term extension, if that’s what Dorsey wanted to do. However, it would be expensive for that single year, much too steep for Dorsey.

The franchise tag for defensive tackles last year was $13.65 million. To pay more than that for Poe’s contributions in the middle would hamstring the entire budget to the point of breaking. Poe is, at this point, simply not worth that much to play the middle, even as many snaps as he logs. The chance of further decline in play, to go with the slight decline he’s already experienced over the last two seasons, means it’s easier to let someone else pay that bill.

The same can be said of any long-term cost. Teams like the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts are hungry for an anchor in the middle, especially one with the experience and youth of Poe, and have the cap room to throw at him, even to stomach a bit of decline. Even if Poe is able to command something in the range of $10-11 million per season, it would be hard for the Chiefs to find the room. Then you add in Spotrac’s market value calculation of $12.1 million per year and it’s easy to understand Dorsey’s decision even further.

Dorsey has done an excellent job of keeping the defensive line section of the roster filled with talent, even without Poe on the depth chart. It begins with the selection of Chris Jones in last year’s draft, a man among boys even as a rookie who earned comparisons to longtime Vikings great Kevin Williams. The ceiling for Jones seems unlimited and he was already earning rave reviews as one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL in the season’s second half.

The mix also includes solid performers in veterans Jaye Howard and Allen Bailey. Both players are returning from season-ending injuries, but their presence last year could have kept Poe from logging so many snaps for once. Unfortunately the team’s depth was tested by losing both players, but Howard and Bailey are both good contributors who should lessen the impact of Poe’s loss.

A younger, developmental prospect like Rakeem Nunez-Rochez will be given more chances to play with Poe’s exit, and Dorsey has proven adept in finding the right veteran talent to fit the Bob Sutton’s defensive schemes when needed. For example, Kendall Reyes logged some impressive snaps for the Chiefs in short order when the depth chart came up short for in-house options. There’s every reason to believe Dorsey can find someone else.

Certainly Dontari Poe will be missed. He was an incredible specimen and performer whose acclaim at the NFL Combine transitioned into one of Scott Pioli’s best draft picks and one of the Chiefs best defenders for the last half decade. As he transitions to a different team, here’s hoping Poe continues to be a positive force in the NFL for years to come.

That said, the risks and costs associated are simply too much for a team that’s already so stretched as Kansas City. Dorsey has done a good job to alleviate the loss with a solid rotation of players with a high-impact rookie among them.

It’s likely that we will see both an underrated veteran signing once the first few weeks of free agency are finished and another draft choice to help round out the rotation when all is said and done. Poe will be missed off the field, but there’s a decent chance that the Chiefs defense will look just fine without him.