The Kansas City Chiefs’ Path To The Playoffs
Nov 3, 2013; Orchard Park, NY, USA; The Buffalo Bills offense lines up against the Kansas City Chiefs defense during the second half at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Chiefs beat the Bills 23-13. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
3. Go 6-2 Against Their Remaining AFC Opponents
Let’s assume for a moment that KC has a good enough record to qualify for a Wild Card spot in the playoffs. As I mentioned at the beginning of this post there are currently ten teams with a .500 record or better that are competing for the same six spots. While there is certainly plenty of season remaining and the herd could get thinned out by the end of the season, there is certainly a possibility at this point that the final Wild Card spot could be determined by a tiebreaker.
Per the NFL rules, if there is a tie for a Wild Card spot the first tiebreaker is head to head match ups. If that doesn’t apply then the next tiebreaker would be the conference record. I went back over the past five seasons and looked at the conference records of the AFC Wild Card teams. Over that five year span the average number of conference wins for those teams was 7.5. The Chiefs currently have two conference wins (Miami and New England) and have eight AFC opponents on their schedule. If they want to ensure that they are in a good position to win a tiebreaker they probably need to hit the eight win mark in the conference (thus surpassing the 7.5 average win total of AFC Wild Card teams).
So what does that entail? Well, we’ve already established that they need to beat the Jets and sweep the Raiders. That would be three conference wins right there. Then KC would need to go 3-2 in their remaining five AFC match ups.
Week 7 at San Diego (5-1)
Week 10 at Buffalo Bills (3-3)
Week 13 vs Denver Broncos (4-1)
Week 16 at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3)
Week 17 vs San Diego Chargers (5-1)
So while KC can afford to lose three games, it would really be best if only two of them came against the AFC. In my opinion this really makes at Buffalo and at Pittsburgh must win games. Those two teams appear to be the more “beatable” opponents compared to San Diego and Denver, plus they are probably more likely to be in direct competition with KC for playoff spots as opposed to San Diego and Denver who are on pace to have two of the best records in the conference. With head to head match ups trumping the conference record it’s all the more important to beat teams that you could be directly competing for spots with.
So what do you think Chiefs fans? First off, would you agree that the three qualifiers that I have laid out are necessary for KC to make the playoffs? Are there any other “musts” that I am missing that you think should be added? Second, do you think the Chiefs can do it? In my opinion it all comes down to those seven games against the teams that are .500 or better and finding a way to win four of them. The first of those games is this Sunday against the Chargers. That game will determine if KC has a tiny bit of breathing room or has little to no margin for error going forward.
Here’s to hoping it’s a win.
As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!