It’s that time of year again, when we all scour every mock draft we can find and endlessly ponder and argue about what the Chiefs should do once April 25^th rolls around.

Everyone has an opinion, most formed forged by a mix of personal preferences, tape study, and a survey of mocks and expert commentary. The problem is that draft science is far from a real science and Mel Kiper Jr. is not god. In fact, the man is our creation – he exists as a result of our obsession and boredom this time of year, and don’t get me wrong, I listen to his podcast, read his articles and scan through all of his mocks. Still, that is far from meaning that the Chiefs should take his advice on Draft day.

The big theme of this round of draft chatter is about how none of the QB’s are worthy of the first overall pick so therefore the Chiefs should steer clear of them with their first selection, choosing instead one of the standout pass-rushers or linemen.

Perhaps it’s my background as a journalist, but I hate groupthink and that includes the conventional wisdom that builds up around this time every year and then gets shattered by the guys actually making the decisions. Let’s be clear, regardless of whatever the self-styled draft scientists say, the player that is worth the Chiefs 1^st pick is the player most likely to make the team better, Kiper’s big board be damned.

To me, it is obvious that this player is whoever the Chiefs deem to be the best quarterback prospect available. I believe that player to be Geno Smith, but what John Dorsey thinks is far more important than my amateur evaluation. In the coming weeks I will go through and detail why the Chiefs shouldn’t pick each individual other prospect that the so-called experts have mocked to them, but for now, I just want to point out that Dorsey has a much better track record than the “experts” when it comes to drafting quality players.

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Let’s compare the Packers’ 1^st-round picks since 2005 with what the scientists wanted them to choose:

2012: LB Nick Perry

Pick #: 28

Result: Jury Still Out. Perry started five games this season and racked up a couple of sacks, but couldn’t stay healthy and finished the year on injured reserve with a wrist injury.

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2011: T Derek Sherrod

Pick #: 32

Result: Jury Still Out. I know it seems like a cop-out, but Sherrod has also seen limited time due to injury. He broke both the tibia and fibula in his leg during the team’s stunning loss to the Chiefs in 2011 and hasn’t been back on the field since. Before then, he started five games giving up no sacks but generating concern in Green Bay about his grasp of the fundamentals.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

2010: T Bryan Bulaga

Pick #: 23

Result: High-end starter. Drafted late in the round, Bulaga has played right tacklke for three years “near a Pro Bowl level” and will get a shot at playing left tackle in 2013, according to the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel.

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

2009: B.J. Raji

Pick #: 9

Result: Franchise player. Raji is a major force at his position and a difference-maker in games.

Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

2009: LB Clay Mathews

Pick #: 26

Result: Franchise player. Ditto for Matthews. 42.5 sacks since being drafted. ‘Nuff said.

Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

2007: DT Justin Harrell

Pick #: 16

Result: Bust due to injury. There is an odd theme to injury being the bane of the Packers’ most promising young players, but it was again the case here. He was cut in 2011 after four disappointing seasons, which the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel summed up thusly: “Harrell never quite had a chance to cash in on his potential as injuries robbed him each season.” Still, he was drafted with a torn bicep suffered in college and was a risky pick on the behalf of the Packers’ front office.

2006: OLB A.J. Hawk

Pick #: 5

Result: High-end starter. ESPN insider describes him as: “an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism for the position. He is an instinctive player who understands angles and how to the leverage the football. He has improved attacking the line of scrimmage being more physical on contact. He is solid as a zone coverage defender but may get exposed in combination man schemes.”

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2005: QB Aaron Rodgers

Pick #: 24

Result: Living legend. A-Rodg probably has to get another Super Bowl victory to punch his ticket to Canton, but he is one of the best three quarterbacks playing this game right now, possibly the very best.

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

All and all, not a bad haul for eight first-round picks – one bust, two high-end starters, two franchise players, and one superstar that will define this generation for the team. I don’t need to remind you of what the Chiefs got themselves through these years, but suffice to say it is significantly less stellar.

How did the experts do? Well, this is what Kiper, king of the draftniks, wanted Green Bay to do all of these years:

2012: LB Nick Perry

Ok, this one was sort of obvious. Green Bay needed a pass-rushing threat opposite Clay Matthews and Perry was projected to be the only one available at this spot.

2011: T Derek Sherrod

Ditto. Also shows that these iffy picks were eminently popular.

2010:  G Mike Iupati

Real pick #: 17 by San Francisco

Result: High-end starter. Scouts Inc. has him ranked as the 49ers’ 6^th best player.

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

2009: CB Malcom Jenkins

Real pick #: 14 by New Orleans

Result: Good starter. The Saints moved him to free safety where he shows good overall skills on that dreadful defense but hasn’t been a difference maker. He has four interceptions in four seasons.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

2008: CB Antoine Cason

Real pick #: 27 by San Diego

Result: High-end starter. He gives up big plays, but is overall still a solid d-back. His Madden 13 overall rating was 86, which is pretty dern good.

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

2007: RB Marshawn Lynch

Real pick #: 12 by Buffalo

Result: High-end starter. Lynch is a borderline franchise player and definitely would have been a good pick for Green Bay if Buffalo hadn’t snatched him four picks earlier. It’s also important to note, however, that Lynch was a trouble-maker who washed out for his first team, which very well could have been the Packers instead of the Bills.

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

2006: A.J. Hawk

Right again! Rival expert Todd McShay had the Packers taking TE Vernon Davis. Now that would be scary.

2005: S/OLB (?) Thomas Davis

Real pick #: 14 by Carolina

Result: Mediocre player. Davis’ biggest problems lately have been health. He only played nine games in three seasons from 2009 to 2011 and didn’t stand out in 15 starts in 2012, picking up 68 tackles, no sacks and one interception for the Panthers.

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

So matched up against the real Green Bay front office, Kiper would have gotten for them four high-end starters plus one good and one mediocre player vs. one superstar, two franchise players, two high-end starters and a bust. That, of course is what conventional wisdom brings – low-risk moves that pay off but make no home runs.

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Was 24 the right spot for Aaron Rodgers to be drafted? Well, we know now that it definitely was not. Instead, Alex Smith was taken 1^st overall that year followed by RB Ronnie Brown, WR Braylon Edwards, RB Cedric Benson, RB Cadillac Williams and CB Pacman Jones. Why? Well, it was a strong running back draft class, just like this is a strong draft for defensive front-seven players.

This is why the “best player available” philosophy is always so misunderstood. Best player available doesn’t mean “next player on Kiper’s Big Board” or “the consensus pick by the draft scientists.” It means finding a player with something special that you can envision helping your team, possibly leading it to the promised land. John Dorsey is much better at that part of the game than any of the talking heads, and has proven it.

Forget about what the crowd says would be “good value” for Chiefs #1 pick. Good value is going to be getting the best quarterback for the future we can. Trading Albert for a young tackle prospect is not good value. Picking up another overhyped D-lineman or undersized pass-rusher isn’t either.

In short, don’t listen to the chatter. Dorsey’s got this.

Jan 22, 2013; Mobile AL, USA; Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey discusses with his scouts and coaches following the Senior Bowl South Squad practice at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Can the Chiefs score points?

Of all their successes over the last three years, the one thing the Chiefs have never been is a scoring machine. Last year, the injury-riddled Chiefs were 31^st in the league for scoring with a miserable 13.2 points per game, which was actually a worse performance than the team’s 4-12 season in 2009. Believe it or not, the Chiefs’ total point differential in that failed campaign was only slightly worse than last season at -130 vs. -126.

Even when the Chiefs were healthy and on fire in 2010 they weren’t exactly blowing teams away. Our point differential was just +40, meaning we were scoring just 2.5 more points per game than our collective opponents. It is no secret that this needs to change.

Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

Overall, the Chiefs are built to control the ball and play stout defense. But, again, we haven’t done the best job of that: last year the Chiefs averaged 310.9 yards per game while allowing 333.3. During the triumphant 2010 season, this indicator wasn’t radically different at 349.7 to 330.2 – gaining 20 more yards than your opponent does not a domination make.

Still, the Chiefs have found success in the recipe of playing everyone close, controlling the ball and wearing down opposing defenses to eventual 4^th-quarter victories. In short, get a little bit ahead and hold on for dear life. But, the other issue with the Chiefs possession-based style is that the Chiefs absolutely must score at the end of their long drives. This recipe can work if the Chiefs are able to play offense efficiently enough to rack up points while chewing up clock and have a defense that is consistent enough to thwart opposing offenses in doing the same. As long as the Chiefs are leaving points on the field with stalled drives, red zone inefficiency and turnovers, the team has to rely on the opponent being just as ineffective.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Last year, the Chiefs were dead last in red zone efficiency at 33.33 percent. Given that statistic and the fact that the Chiefs had a -126 point differential, it is truly miraculous that this team won 7 games.

The good news is that the Chiefs are now finally built to be the kind of team that they’ve been trying to be. Jamaal Charles is clearly the most dynamic player on offense, but he’s a boom-and-bust runner. He’ll gain 25, then get stuffed in the backfield. Then he’ll get you 6 yards only to get stuck for two consecutive 1.5-yard gains. He’ll give you magic, but he won’t always keep the ball moving. That’s why Peyton Hillis is such an important addition. His power allows him to be a much more consistent 1^st-down runner. The development of Dexter McCluster as a reliable slot receiver provides another move-the-chains weapon to keep the ball in Kansas City hands.

Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

But, they still need to put it in the end zone.

In the preseason, the Chiefs looked good running the ball and have been overall effective moving down field. But, they still haven’t shown the ability to keep up in scoring. And, when experimenting with throwing the ball heavily against the Seahawks, they showed that they will have a hard time catching up in games if they get behind by more than one touchdown.

Therefore, Atlanta is going to be the perfect test for whether the Chiefs can put points on the board. Not only do the Falcons have two good receivers that are constant downfield threats, but the Chiefs are likely to be without their pass defense players. It’s looking like CB Brandon Flowers and S Kendrick Lewis will be out with injuries and Tamba Hali will be serving his one-game suspension.

Honestly, I think the Chiefs should hold out Lewis and Flowers – it is absolutely not worth it for them to aggravate their injuries to a point where they could potentially be lost for extended time. But, without them, the onus is going to be on the offense to keep up with Atlanta’s deadly air attack.

This matchup will tell us a lot about the 2012 Chiefs. It’s a test.

Let the games begin.

Note: For Internal Use Only. Coaches, players and fans of the Raiders, Chargers and Broncos are not authorized to read this post.

It’s that time of the year. The Draft and free agency have passed and we all feel like we have the best team in the league.  In fact, everyone feels like they have the best team in the league. The only problem is that 31 of them are wrong and we’re probably one of them.

Thus, it has come time for me to assume the role I have carved out on this site and that is being the Debbie Downer. We still have holes and weaknesses. Talented coordinators are going to be able to target those weaknesses and we need to be thinking about how to mask them.

If I am an opposing coach, this is how I plan my game:

Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

1.) Defend RB Jamaal Charles. How? By keeping him out of the end zone. Provided he is back to his old self, he’s almost certainly going to rack up 100+ yards on us. Let him; just don’t let the safeties get beat. Pay the mascot another bounty for taking him out (Just kidding, they’ll be watching this time).

2.) Throw deep. Now, this may seem like a strange prescription given that the Chiefs have one of the best secondaries in the league. However, it makes sense for several reasons.

First off, S Eric Berry and CB Brandon Flowers are scary, scary men when healthy, but there are other bits of the pass defense that are vulnerable. S Kendrick Lewis is a smart ball hawk, but he doesn’t have the wheels to keep up with speedy receivers streaking downfield. Routt is known to willingly take a holding or interference call if he feels like he is losing the wideout, rather than risk give up a touchdown. Send our best track star on a sprint down field a few times per game just to see what happens. Depending on the coverage, we can fake Berry off to the other side, we may get lucky with a blitzing DB, or our guy might just be able to outrun his man. There’s also a good chance we can scare Routt into eating an erroneous penalty. We’ll also probably get favorable matchups with our tight ends against their linebackers and safeties.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Secondly, as we saw last year, all of the Chiefs’ explosive plays comes from two guys –Charles and WR Dwayne Bowe. There is simply no one else on the team who generates big plays with any consistency. While each of those two is guaranteed to have a couple of good-gainers on us, limiting their ability to score will keep the Chiefs off the board. KC was 31^st in scoring last year and 14^th in the league in 2010 when they had all their stars healthy. As long as the game stays close, we will be able to make big plays on them, and it’s likely they won’t be able to keep up. They counted on the ability to run at will and chew clock in 2010. If we can get a couple of quick, easy touchdowns on them, they won’t be able to use that to their advantage.

3.) Stand tall on first and third down. Jamaal Charles is at his best on first down –108 of his 230 carries (47 percent) were on first for 7.2 yards-per-carry (YPC) in 2010. But, he only averaged 5.2 YPC up the middle. Let him have it. On early downs, keep our backers and ends out in contain on the edges. If we can do that, we can force them into lots of third-down situations. In 2010, the Chiefs were 20^th in the league in converting on third down, 27^th in 2011. Watch out for RB Peyton Hillis on third.

4.) Play smart, the Chiefs likely won’t. In 2010, KC was the 12^th most penalized team in the league. In 2011, they were 9^th, and they just added a couple of Raiders. They are a very young team, and when they are frustrated, they will gift you yards. Let’s not be so generous.

5.) Win in the beginning. Both Hillis and Charles put up their best numbers in the first quarter. As long as they are just tallying up yardage while we are tallying up points with a few big plays, we can live with that. Matt Cassel had a passer rating of 52.3 in the fourth quarter of games that were decided by seven points or less. He’s not much better in overtime. If we are still leading going into the fourth, we have to feel good about our chances of winning.

So, Addicts, that’s how opposing teams will be looking at us. What do we do to counter?