“Your boy Big Matt is a big fan of this draft class!”

-Your boy Big Matt

Sometimes a certain draft class just clicks for you, for whatever reason. Every pick makes sense. You come away feeling great about the players, and are predisposed to liking their play on the field. This was how I felt when the Chiefs picked Junior Siavii…

Kidding. 2005 was the last draft class I really felt that way about. I was thrilled DJ fell to us, I thought trading our second for Pat Surtain was a steal (oops) and picking Colquitt showed ingenuity. I was also high on both Boomer Grigsby and Will Svitek. Some pretty hit-and-miss analysis, admittedly, but that was how I saw things.

Since then, the Chiefs have drafted many good players. A few great ones. But the next five drafts all contained what I viewed as huge mistakes. Croyle in ’06, Turk McBride in ’07, Dorsey in ’08, Tin Man in ’09, McCluster and Arenas in 2010. All high picks that I absolutely hated at the time they were made.

2011 provided no such draft-day eyesores. Baldwin wasn’t a guy I’d been considering, but after that trade back Pioli had carte blanche to play around a little bit in my eyes. And since Baldwin shattered the “right 53″ nonsense, so much the better. After that, I gave every single pick an enthusiastic two thumbs up. Bailey might only have been one thumb actually, but the point is, this was a class that clicked with me. The porridge was just right (which for me means full of fried cod).

Still, what do we really know about these guys, after one year? We can be reasonably certain Justin Houston is going to be very good. We can also be reasonably certain I’m going to count every sack he gets as a personal victory for me and my NORML cronies.

I read an article once, many moons ago, that said of a team’s first three picks, the odds were that one would exceed expectations and excel, one would bust, and one would endure, but not necessarily impress. Obviously every draft class is different, but it was all based on odds over time. A first round pick has ___% of becoming a bust, ___% of becoming a breakout, etc. And the way it worked out, each class was statistically favored to have one player in each of the three categories.

I don’t know how accurate any of this is anymore, if it ever was. These distinctions are all subjective anyway. But I’ve found it a good way to temper expectations when looking at our top picks. It’s also interesting, after picks have been made, to look at the entire class and wonder how the chips will fall. We root for them all, but intellectually, we know half of them will be gone when the smoke clears three years later.

I like to look at picks 4-7 and think, “Which one of you silly bastards is gonna be someone I one day respect greatly?” One long-term starter is a reasonable expectation for the later rounds (Where you at, Shane Bannon?).

Back to the top picks. If we take Houston’s success as a given, that still leaves the 2011 class with a first, second and third round pick. Jonathan Baldwin, Rodney Hudson and Allen Bailey are all question marks at this point. Bailey had a promising finish, Hudson was a pick we all liked, and Baldwin had that one great catch. Still, none of them have proven anything. They could all be stars, or they could all bust.

My question is, if we’re following the methodology I outline, who we do we think is most likely to do what? The exercise requires that we pick one bust, one breakout, and one B student.

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Rodney Hudson

The Kansas City Chiefs will have to face the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday night without guard Ryan Lilja.

Lilja received a head/neck injury last week against the Patriots and it appears as though that the injury is serious enough to already rule the veteran G out vs. Pittsburgh.

With Lilja on the shelf, rookie second round pick Rodney Hudson will likely get his first NFL start. Hudson came in for Lilja against the Patriots and seemed to hold his own pretty well. He’ll likely have his hands full playing against an aggressive and physical Steeler front seven.

Hudson is showing some versatility. It has been assumed that the Chiefs drafted him to eventually take over at center for Casey Wiegmann. As we know, the Chiefs also value players who can play more than one position. Hudson has actually played more guard than center so he may be more suited to take over for Lilja than Wiegmann at this point.

Other injury updates after the jump.
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Chan Gailey, the original offensive coordinator of the Pioli/Haley era, was served his pink slip by Todd Haley less than two weeks before the start of the 2009 season. Apparently Gailey never forgot that firing and who can blame him considering it occurred at a time when his prospects of finding another respectable coaching job anytime before the next season were probably slim to none? In a Radio 610 interview during the week leading up to his week 1 match-up, Gailey made it pretty clear that his firing from the Chiefs did not sit well him. Following the humiliating defeat his team served up in Arrowhead, his exact words after the game were “It feels good . . . You’re lying if you say it doesn’t. It does. It feels good.”

Gailey didn’t just beat Haley. He outcoached him in every aspect of the game. Gailey also had a few other things to say about his coaching philosophy that I find somewhat pertinent to the situation, if not in total contrast (I suspect even specifically targeted) to Haley’s own approach of breaking the season up into four segments and his monotone mantra-chant of “just trying to get a little bit better” each week.

Here’s what I’m talking about, in Gailey’s own words: “If you say, ‘Well I hope we’re a little bit better than last year,’ you ought to get out. That’s wrong. I expect to win every one of them. I expect to be undefeated. That’s the way I’ve always been, and that’s the way I’ll always be. I want to be 1-0 after this one and whoever we play second, I want to be 2-0.”

Did you catch that?

I’ll go a step further. I believe last Sunday’s game may very well determine more than simply who won the game, if not its subtle battle of wits. I’ll explain what I mean after the break.
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To be honest, my hand has been hovering over the Chief’s panic button pretty much since the 2011 schedule was announced. Even as the Chiefs signed their draft picks and free agents — when every team is feeling pretty good about itself — I tried to temper that enthusiasm. Now, after three humiliating preseason showings, the protective cover is off, I’ve gotten code confirmation from Paddy, it’s time to push the damn thing.

After the jump, here’s three things I think we now know about the Chiefs with the preseason nearly over: (more…)

Note: Even though this camp report if from Friday’s practice (the one that was so humid and caused a lot of players to struggle) I feel I’ve included a lot of material that hasn’t been included in previous camp reports.

Well Chiefs fans, the first pre-season game is now less then a week away. I was faced with a tough choice this week. My birthday is Monday and I had two options for my gift this year, a new ipod or a road trip to St. Joe to spend a day at training camp on Friday. As a true addict, you can guess which option I picked (not to mention that the title of this post should have given it away). Now I have a couple of confessions. I had never been to training camp before. Several years ago I went to an open practice at arrowhead but that’s about it. So I’m going to approach this from two different angles. The first will be for those that have never gone to camp before so that you have some idea what its like and maybe even help you out if you’re considering going. Second, I’ll try to give you some insight into what I saw on the field at camp.

It can be a little overwhelming to try and keep tabs on everything that is going on so I decided to focus a lot of my time on the offensive and defensive lines. I did this for a few different reasons. First, it is the area where I’m most concerned and wanted to see how they looked. Second, when they aren’t tackling the lines are the only place you get to see actual contact going on that closest resembles actual game play. Finally, several of the players I was most excited to get a look at were in these groups. As an added bonus, I found that the masses tend to follow the skill players around so its easier to get a look at the big guys.

I’ll give a break down of a few players that I spent some time watching specifically. Some of these I set out to watch and a couple others just caught my attention. Among them are Jerrell Powe, Kelly Gregg, Allen Bailey, Tyson Jackson, Rodney Hudson, and David Mims.

One last confession, I named my column the Armchair Addict for a reason. I’m a true armchair quarterback. I do not claim to be an expert on the proper technique for offensive and defensive linemen. So these opinions are those of one fan who watched one day of practice. If nothing else, I got some pretty good pictures.

So come along to training camp with me after the break.

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There seems to be a lot of chatter in these here parts about what all is wrong (and right) with the Kansas City Chiefs offensive line and how to make it better. We’ve all heard ‘em, they generally go something like this:

Branden Albert will never win us a Superbowl at LT; he should be moved to . . .

We need a major upgrade at RT, Barry Richardson shoved a coach.

Even at 74 years old, 110 lb Casey Weigmann continues to play phenomenally well. He anchors our OL dammit!

Don’t dare touch Ryan Lilja, he’s from here and more importantly, he went to K-State!

Brian Waters play has slipped, he’s just getting by on reputation.

Okay, perhaps I exagerated a tad on the matters of Casey Weigmann’s diminutive stature and charter membership to AARP, but are all or any of these statements really valid? I’ll do a little review on all this right after the jump.
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First let me apologize for not posting in over a month.  In the last month I got married in Hawaii and flew off to Europe for a three week honeymoon.  I came back to a boatload of work. (It’s been a really hard month; your sympathy would be appreciated).   During that time, I refused any internet access, and as such, I am not up on our current beloved Chiefs’ news.  The good thing is there really hasn’t been any, (other than here at AA of course).  But I digress.

The word on the street is that the Owners and Players have 85% of an agreement in place and the lockout will be over soon enough.  As I have said on previous occasions, the lockout to me has been, well, kind of trivial.  They were always going to play football.  The decision is simple: gripe about how you do not make enough money and then in fact not make any money at all, or gripe about how you do not make any money, work out a better deal (even if it is not exactly what you want), and then make money.  It is common sense.  But I digress again.

Everyone knows that I have been clamoring for a true NT for the last couple of years.  In the 2010 draft, I wanted the Chiefs to select Cam Thomas, in fact during AA’s 2010 draft chat, Merlin, myself and everyone chatting that year wanted the Chiefs to draft a true NT, especially Cam Thomas.  That did not happen.  (Cam Thomas was then selected by our rivals the Chargers in the 6^th round.  He played in 6 games, had 7 tackles and two sacks).  I thought the Chiefs must know what they are doing; they must have done their homework and not liked what they saw out of any of the true NT prospects in the 2010 Draft.  I knew the 2011 draft would be different. They had to get their true big bodied NT in order to shore up our run defense, and they had to make it priority  number one.  However, they did not.

More after the jump…

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Some people, analysts and fans alike, did not like the direction the Chiefs took in the draft.  One of the concerns is that the Chiefs traded out of the 21st pick when offensive tackles Anthony Castonzo and Gabe Carimi were both available.  The Chiefs eventually took Jonathan Baldwin, who has character concerns of his own, at the 26th pick in the first round.

There could be arguments made all day about whether the Chiefs selected the right players in the 2011 NFL Draft.  The truth of the matter is the draft is over and the players that were selected are the players the Chiefs are stuck with.  Each of these players brings something different and unique to the Chiefs roster, so without further ado lets dive into each draft picks role and expectations entering the 2011 NFL season.

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When I was looking at the way the big boards seemed to be shaking out leading up to the 2011 NFL Draft, I realized that the best day for the Chiefs would probably be Day Two.  The reason for this is that there were multiple players at multiple need positions that seemed to be a good fit for Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chiefs looked to have their pick of players in the 2^nd and 3^rd rounds.  So, let’s take a look at their picks and what they bring to the Chiefs.
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The Kansas City Chiefs have drafted Florida State guard/center Rodney Hudson in the 2nd round of the 2011 NFL Draft.

Hudson, who played guard in college is expected to make the move to center for the Chiefs. KC has a desperate need at the position as veteran Casey Weigmann could retire this offseason. Other than Weigmann, the only other center on the roster is backup Rudy Niswanger.

If Weigmann retires, Hudson could start right away. He is 6-2 and weighs in at 299. He is scouted as a quick, athletic center with particular strengths at pulling and trapping.

Here is a bit from Sideline Scouting on Hudson:

Positives: Athletic… Heady, good awareness… Usually plays with good overall technique and knee bend… Quick hands, uses his hands reasonably well… Possesses very solid playing strength… Good initial quickness, fires out of his stance… Good agility, very solid footwork… Carries his pads reasonably well… Good run blocker… Keeps feet moving on contact… Plays reasonably low and with good leverage… Does a good job on pulls and traps… Gets to the second level quickly… Takes good angles… Does a good job keeping his feet underneath him… Good flexibility and body control… Breaks down well and does a very good job blocking in space… Good pass protector… Solid knee bender… Sets up quickly… Good lateral mobility and slide

Here are some negatives:

Serious size limitations especially at Guard, undersized… Shorter than ideal arm length… Inconsistent technique… Needs to improve overall playing strength a little… Doesn’t possess a great anchor and will get pushed back at times… Bends at the waist, leans into some blocks… Plays with his head down too much, allows taller defenders over the top… Doesn’t hold up especially well to bull rushers… Missed a couple games in 2009 with knee injury.

If the Chiefs medical staff cleared Hudson then I am sure his knees are fine. He is light and athletic and should fit the KC zone blocking scheme perfectly. I see Hudson as a serious upgrade at a very big position of need for the Chiefs.

What do you think Addicts? Are you happy with Hudson?

Earlier today Merlin took a look at the nose tackle class in this year’s NFL Draft.  I have no idea who from his list will be drafted, but I do know that it is up to the center to nullify the nose tackle.  In fact, one of the keys to a fully functioning 3-4 defense is the idea that the nose tackle occupies at least 2 offensive linemen.  This means, that if the center can take on the nose tackle 1-on-1, then the 3-4 defense loses some of its effectiveness.  Kansas City Chiefs fans should be familiar with this since our NT can’t consistently force a double team.

Along with the NT class, the center class should also be of interest to the Chiefs since their current center, Casey Wiegmann, is currently 50-50 on retiring.  Even if he wasn’t retiring center should still be a priority for the Chiefs because while Wiegmann was serviceable, he was showing his age last season.  Also, as a smaller center (6’2” 285 lbs.) he was not holding up well versus the nose tackles he faced.  That being said, he was an upgrade from previous year’s center Rudy Niswanger.  Now that we’ve established the idea that the Chiefs need a center, here are some likely candidates to be drafted:
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