Last Friday, a shot rang out through Chiefs nation – one that meant hope, credibility and a lot of change.

By firing GM Scott Pioli and bringing in head coach Andy Reid, Clark Hunt has set the franchise on an entirely new path.

Firstly, he has done away with the team’s traditional hierarchical structure that seats a powerful general manager above the coaching staff. Make no mistake, going forward, for better or worse, Reid is going to be calling the shots during the offseason, the draft, et cetera.

Four years ago, the Chiefs hired a highly reputed front office wiz from the New England Patriots. Although everyone knows that Bill Belichick is the mastermind behind New England’s success, this guy was a vital cog in his machine and it was believed that the numbers guy could be brought in to reproduce it. That failed, and Hunt learned his lesson. This time around, by hiring Andy Reid, he didn’t get Pioli, he got Belichick.

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Having secured a lucrative contract that gives him wide-sweeping authority, make no mistake, Reid is going to make a lot of changes. He comes with a distinct philosophy, working style and mold for a successful team.

Reid is definitely going to make his imprint on this team during this offseason, which means several players are going to get their walking papers while others are going to see their role increase. We still don’t know exactly who Reid will take on with his staff or whether or not he will be keeping the Chiefs’ 3-4 defense, but judging by the way he built the Eagles, I think we can say which players should be happy and which should be nervous.

Offense

Extremely Happy:

WR’s Steve Breaston, Dexter McCluster and Devon Wylie

Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Andy Reid loves small receivers that are great route-runners. McCluster has come on has an effective slot guy and I have a feeling that Reid will find something to do with Breaston who was criminally underused this season. Meanwhile, Wylie showed up late as another developing tool in the Chiefs passing game.

Happy:

RB Jamaal Charles, LT Brandon Albert

It’s been widely said that Reid doesn’t like to run the ball, but that’s not really true. The Eagles were 19^th in rushing attempts per game this year, 12^th last year and 15^th in 2010. In other words, they’re pretty much in the middle of the pack. Charles will still be getting fewer touches on runs out of the backfield (largely because the Chiefs have been one of the most run-happy teams in the league), but he will make up for that with more screens and quick passes thrown his way per game. Charles is a good route runner and could easily become a faster version of Brian Westbrook.

Reid also highly values the offensive line and doesn’t mind spending big to keep it shored up. This is good news for Albert, whose contract is up.

Extremely Worried:

RB Peyton Hillis and WR’s Jonathan Baldwin and Dwayne Bowe

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Hillis is gone. His fantastic game against the Colts notwithstanding, Hillis was a disappointment, only rushing for 309 yards this season for a 3.6-yard average. Like Hillis, Baldwin and Bowe also don’t really fit Reid’s scheme. Bowe is a great outside, move-the-chains threat, but Reid doesn’t typically utilize such receivers. He prefers getting the ball into the hands of smaller, more dynamic players in the middle that have the chance to make big plays. Baldwin has done next to nothing in the league and doesn’t fit this new mold. Bowe will probably be allowed to walk this offseason in favor of a free agent like Mike Wallace. Baldwin will probably get his last chance to prove his worth in the 2013 preseason.

Defense

Extremely Happy:

S Eric Berry

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Reid made great use of safety Brian Dawkins early in his time in Philadelphia as a jack-of-all-trades blitzer, run stuffer and cover guy. Berry has the physical tools to do the same, and I can’t wait to see the creative ways Reid decides to use him.

Happy:

OLB’s Tamba Hali and Justin Houston

Although nothing is certain at this point, it is likely that Reid will want to move back to a 4-3 defense and use both Hali and Houston as edge rushers on the line. Hali is originally a defensive end and will likely be happy to return. Although Houston has done admirably in picking up coverage skills, I personally think it is a waste to make him drop back on passing downs when he truly excels at getting after the quarterback. In a Reid defense, he likely to be able focus on doing just that.

Worried:

The rest of the front seven

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Especially if the team abandons the 3-4, DE’s Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson are likely toast. Both are overpaid and underwhelming and I don’t see Reid wanting to keep reinvesting in those projects. Poe will likely stay a bit longer because he is still developing and would likely be effective in a 4-3 as well.

Unfortunately for the guys behind them, Reid has never heavily prized the linebacker position. In his years in Philly, he always invested high picks and free agent signings in defensive linemen and DBs while allowing the linebacking corps to be filled by a revolving door of journeymen.

Although we know Derrick Johnson can excel in the role of a 4-3 middle linebacker, it is still unclear whether Reid will want to pay him big money to continue to do so when his contract is up.

This list will change as we find out more about what Reid plans to do with this team, and I’ll try to keep you all updated as we all find out more.

Coming back from my home abroad in the Republic of Georgia for the holidays, the only thing I really wanted for Christmas was to be able to witness a competitive Chiefs game in person.

Statistically, the team’s past performances and the overall matchup with the Colts made it pretty unlikely I was going to get my wish. But, despite Brady Quinn’s and Brian Daboll’s best efforts I was able to stand a few dozen rows back and watch my beloved team play a dignified game against a better opponent.

I even got to see the team make history. The 2012 Chiefs are the only NFL team to rush for more than 350 yards and still lose the game. Let that soak in a little.

I’m preaching to the choir here on Arrowhead Addict, but if there are any readers who have not been watching the Chiefs all season, this game is your indisputable proof that the Chiefs have been sunk singlehandedly by horrendous quarterback play and worst offensive coaching and play-calling in the league. It is very difficult to have 507 total yards and score only 13 points without doing it on purpose. If that was Daboll’s intent, well done, sir.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

If not, well …

Matt Cassel would have won this game.

Mark Sanchez would have won this game.

Heck, Chad Henne would have won this game by two touchdowns.

Andy Reid, who is about to be fired, would have never called for a draw play on 3^rd and 8 with the game tied in the last three minutes against a team that already had six wins in which they came back in the fourth quarter. Norv Turner, who is also about to be fired, wouldn’t even have this dumb play in his binder.

In fact, any offensive coordinator who decides to hand off to his power back in a clutch situation from the shotgun formation (!) on 3^rd and 8 in what is likely your last possession of a tied game needs to be taken in for a round of electroshock treatment. I’m not trying to be crass, it’s for their health.

The fact that Jamaal’s historic performance was wasted because his quarterback not only couldn’t score at the end of drives, but actually killed one drive and gave up an easy pick six, is criminal.

Quinn needs to find himself a nice spot in the UFL or CFL and I don’t say that out of spite or malice. I believe him when he said he’s not interested in the glory, but rather an opportunity to play the game he loves. Through five seasons in the NFL, he has shown that he is a low-end backup quarterback at this level, and even at that, I’m not sure I’d want him to try and carry my team if my starter gets hurt. He’s made his money; if he really wants to play this game I think he’ll find it’s a lot more fun in the minor leagues. There it won’t matter that he can’t hit a single deep throw – the Colts’ coverage was nothing special on Sunday; he wouldn’t have completed those throws even if the receivers were wide open.

It also struck me at this game how much we have lowered our expectations as Chiefs fans. A lot of the post-game talk was about the fact that Jon Baldwin had one of his best games with two (!) catches for 64 yards on six targets. The fact that this is considered to be a noteworthy performance is among the best evidence I can summon for just how much this team has played like garbage this year. In fact, it feels like we have undergone a slow slide in our expectations over the last few years towards saying, “Well, we didn’t get totally embarrassed. Good day.”

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

That bears out in the stats dug up by the Star’s Sam Mellinger: the Chiefs current point differential is a league-worst  -179 and is also the worst in team history. For our sanity’s sake, our brains have prepared us for such an outcome as the four worst seasons in terms of point differential in the 52-year history of team were 2011, 2009, 2008, and 2012.

We have grown accustomed to being blown out or barely scraping by for a win. The only reason Sunday’s game was even watchable was due to Charles’ herculean efforts along with Peyton Hillis, who decided he was in the mood to run, apparently.

Before the game, I was at the Chiefs VIP tailgate, which was near empty like Arrowhead’s stands. On the plus side, it meant no line for food, beer and autographs from Chiefs Hall-of-Fame safety Deron Cherry. Cherry, who racked up six Pro-Bowl seasons from 1981-1991 with 15 recovered fumbles and 50 interceptions, was a quarterback hunter for a decade. So, I took the time to ask him what he thought about the incoming QB class.

As everyone else has said, he agreed that this year’s crop is less than awe-inspiring, but he was more interested in what the Chiefs would do in the front office. I found it very interesting that he brought that up unsolicited because he was presumably brought in by Chiefs PR for the event. The fact that he said he thinks Crennel should go and it doesn’t make sense to trust Pioli to pick his third head coach in five years  speaks volumes because it was Pioli’s office that hired him for the appearance.

For his part, he said he thinks the Chiefs should bring in Bruce Arians, who has ties to the team as a running backs coach in the late 80’s when Cherry was playing. We’ll be pouring over head coaching options over the next few weeks, but I respectfully disagree with the choice of Arians.

Although he has been an accomplished coordinator for several teams, Arians has never distinguished himself as anything more than that and had a disastrous tenure coaching Temple in the 70’s. He should be highly commended for how he has steered the Colts from afterthought to playoffs in one season, but it’s difficult to tell how much of that was his own efforts and how much came from the team’s wunderkind quarterback and emotional drive to win for their official head coach who has been battling leukemia.

It’s a great story, but so was Romeo Crennel last year, and there are too many parallels there for me to get excited about him.

I’m open to other possibilities, but for now, the rest of my Christmas list reads: Bill Polian, Geno Smith and the ability to hold lofty expectations for this team without subjecting myself to inevitable psychological trauma when they take the field.

And, yes, I am willing to share these presents with others.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Peyton Hillis’ time in Cleveland did not end well.

Hillis, who began his career as a FB with the Denver Broncos, was traded to the Browns for QB Brady Quinn. Shortly thereafter, Hillis had a breakout season for Cleveland, rushing for 1,177 yards and 11 TDs in 2010. He also had 61 receptions for 477 yards and two TDs. Hillis became so popular in Cleveland that he landed on the cover of the popular Madden NFL Football video game franchise.

And then the dreaded “Madden Curse” struck. Hillis’ final year in Cleveland was a disaster. He missed multiple games with injuries and faced criticism for his attitude in a much-publicized contract dispute with the Browns. At the end of the 2011, the Browns allowed Hillis to move on and he landed in Kansas City.

This week, for no apparent reason, other than perhaps because he was asked about it, Browns LT Joe Thomas decided to start taking shots at Hillis.

“I think it was better for both sides,” Thomas said of Hillis leaving the Browns. “At that point, the situation with him here was toxic. He didn’t want to be here, and players didn’t want him here and it’s better just for a fresh start at that point.”

Thomas also went on to call Hillis a “terrible distraction.”

“He crippled our offense because we ended up signing (Chris Ogbonnaya) off the street in the middle of the year, and he ended up getting hurt. We were struggling to find anybody who could carry the ball after all the injuries we had. To have Peyton going through a contract dispute and basically refusing to play, it was a big distraction.”

For his part, Hillis didn’t take Thomas’ words lying down. He fired back on Thursday.

“Joe Thomas, he can have his opinions all he wants,” Hillis said. “It’s kind of like a crazy ex-girlfriend, you know? It’s been over a year. Get over it. But I don’t know. I guess when you get paid over $100 million by one team, it’s kind of easy to point the finger at another guy and hate on him for trying to get another contract.”

First, the crazy ex-girlfriend comment is hilarious.

Second, what is Thomas’ problem? It seems to me like he is mad at Hillis for being unprofessional during his last year in Cleveland. That is fine but calling out ex-teammates publicly a year later is just as unprofessional.

Hillis may have made a mistake in Cleveland by the way he behaved but since coming to Kansas City there haven’t been any issues. We all make mistakes and for Thomas to go out in the media to slam Hillis now is kind of low-class if you ask me.

I wonder if the Chiefs will give Hillis a few extra looks this Sunday?

Can the Chiefs score points?

Of all their successes over the last three years, the one thing the Chiefs have never been is a scoring machine. Last year, the injury-riddled Chiefs were 31^st in the league for scoring with a miserable 13.2 points per game, which was actually a worse performance than the team’s 4-12 season in 2009. Believe it or not, the Chiefs’ total point differential in that failed campaign was only slightly worse than last season at -130 vs. -126.

Even when the Chiefs were healthy and on fire in 2010 they weren’t exactly blowing teams away. Our point differential was just +40, meaning we were scoring just 2.5 more points per game than our collective opponents. It is no secret that this needs to change.

Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

Overall, the Chiefs are built to control the ball and play stout defense. But, again, we haven’t done the best job of that: last year the Chiefs averaged 310.9 yards per game while allowing 333.3. During the triumphant 2010 season, this indicator wasn’t radically different at 349.7 to 330.2 – gaining 20 more yards than your opponent does not a domination make.

Still, the Chiefs have found success in the recipe of playing everyone close, controlling the ball and wearing down opposing defenses to eventual 4^th-quarter victories. In short, get a little bit ahead and hold on for dear life. But, the other issue with the Chiefs possession-based style is that the Chiefs absolutely must score at the end of their long drives. This recipe can work if the Chiefs are able to play offense efficiently enough to rack up points while chewing up clock and have a defense that is consistent enough to thwart opposing offenses in doing the same. As long as the Chiefs are leaving points on the field with stalled drives, red zone inefficiency and turnovers, the team has to rely on the opponent being just as ineffective.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Last year, the Chiefs were dead last in red zone efficiency at 33.33 percent. Given that statistic and the fact that the Chiefs had a -126 point differential, it is truly miraculous that this team won 7 games.

The good news is that the Chiefs are now finally built to be the kind of team that they’ve been trying to be. Jamaal Charles is clearly the most dynamic player on offense, but he’s a boom-and-bust runner. He’ll gain 25, then get stuffed in the backfield. Then he’ll get you 6 yards only to get stuck for two consecutive 1.5-yard gains. He’ll give you magic, but he won’t always keep the ball moving. That’s why Peyton Hillis is such an important addition. His power allows him to be a much more consistent 1^st-down runner. The development of Dexter McCluster as a reliable slot receiver provides another move-the-chains weapon to keep the ball in Kansas City hands.

Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

But, they still need to put it in the end zone.

In the preseason, the Chiefs looked good running the ball and have been overall effective moving down field. But, they still haven’t shown the ability to keep up in scoring. And, when experimenting with throwing the ball heavily against the Seahawks, they showed that they will have a hard time catching up in games if they get behind by more than one touchdown.

Therefore, Atlanta is going to be the perfect test for whether the Chiefs can put points on the board. Not only do the Falcons have two good receivers that are constant downfield threats, but the Chiefs are likely to be without their pass defense players. It’s looking like CB Brandon Flowers and S Kendrick Lewis will be out with injuries and Tamba Hali will be serving his one-game suspension.

Honestly, I think the Chiefs should hold out Lewis and Flowers – it is absolutely not worth it for them to aggravate their injuries to a point where they could potentially be lost for extended time. But, without them, the onus is going to be on the offense to keep up with Atlanta’s deadly air attack.

This matchup will tell us a lot about the 2012 Chiefs. It’s a test.

Let the games begin.

With their thumping 27-17 win (with the score 17-0 as the starters left the field), the 2012 Kansas City Chiefs have made their presence known, and while I always anticipated the Chiefs to be improved this year, it was clear that this game was all about surprise.

Suddenly, the national media have looked up from their Peyton Manning talking points and realized that there is another team in the AFC West – one far more likely to be playoff bound. ESPN’s Chris Mortensen said as much after the game via Twitter, “I’m starting to agree with #Chiefs fans – national media (ESPN included) has fallen asleep on KC. They may be team to beat in AFC West.”

It’s important to remember that the Chiefs and the Cardinals were considered to be evenly-matched teams before this game. In fact, Pete Prisco of CBS Sports had the Cards ranked 16^th in his July 25 power rankings, with the Chiefs at a lowly 22^nd, justified by a rote comment about Matt Cassel defining the team’s overall worth (the laziness of what passes for analysis by national football writers astounds me at times).

But, it wasn’t just surprising that the Chiefs were impressive, or even that they gave Arizona a shellacking – it’s how they dominated. WR Dwayne Bowe wasn’t on the field. Neither WR Steve Breaston, nor WR Jonathan Baldwin, who has been blowing up training camp, caught a single pass. RB Jamaal Charles had just three carries for 12 yards. OLB Tamba Hali had zero sacks, and NT Dontari Poe barely registered his presence. And the Chiefs dominated.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Matt Cassel looked polished and comfortable, going 5/6 for 67 yards and a TD. RB Peyton Hillis, coming off a down year, looked fantastic running for 41 yards on four carries plus an 11-yard touchdown pass. WR/RB Dexter McCluster showed his skills as a matchup nightmare, reeling in three passes for 45 yards. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense started with back-to-back 3-and-outs followed by an interception and tallied seven sacks on the night. In the limited amount of time that the Chiefs’ starters were out on the field, it was a massacre. In the late first quarter, I wrote in my notes “THIS IS CHILD’S PLAY!”

This game was also all about surprise because of the play-calling of OC Brian Daboll. I already love this man. Most notable was his fantastic call on 4^th and 3. The Chiefs lined up with heavy personnel in a goal-line formation. As the defense began stacking the box to charge in up the middle, Cassel motioned all the backs and TEs out wide making it a five-receiver set with an open backfield. This threw the defense into chaos as they tried to adjust to coverage in panic. While they were still yelling at each other, Cassel slid in behind C Rodney Hudson for a sneaky conversion. I cannot tell you how much I loved that play – great design, perfectly executed.

Ever since Daboll was hired, we at AA and across Chiefs Nation have been pondering what Daboll’s offence “based on matchups” really meant. I think we’re now beginning to figure that out. While I think this game confirmed my assertion that Hillis could end up the Chiefs’ biggest free agent acquisition, I’m already eating my words about WR Devon Wylie and RB Cyrus Gray replacing McCluster. Dex’s move to being a pure slot receiver already looks like it will pay off dividends in 2012. On two big plays, Daboll drew things up so that Baldwin – the #1 target – would force a one-on-one on McCluster, who has now definitely shown that he has improved his route-running and ability to get open.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Most fundamentally, as Paddy pointed out, it’s clear the Chiefs generally grasp his offense and are executing it well. During the second half, GM Scott Pioli was in the press box talking about how the Chiefs now run like a well-oiled machine, getting plays in on time and communicating efficiently. As much as his image as a disciplinarian and ultra stickler for detail put me off, it is clear that the overall culture he is trying to install works. Players were always walking with confidence out there, and coaches seemed to be able to communicate well without wasting time with petty bickering.

The other big surprise is how deep the Chiefs seem to be at nose tackle. While Poe showed he still has a lot to learn, former practice-squader Anthony Toribio showed why he has taken the starting spot. He consistently got off blocks and single-handedly stuffed a running back in the backfield playing against the Cardinals’ starters. Meanwhile, Jerrel Powe was also impressive, getting penetration several times and even notching a sack from the nose tackle position. Poe clearly pushed the pocket on a few downs, but often times seemed to be playing patty-cake with the O-linemen – still unsure of how to use his hands effectively. He seemed to either be focusing too much on his hands or not enough. But, at the very least, he did get double-teamed nearly every time, which was a large part of why KC racked up so many sacks on the game.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

The only negative surprises in this game were in the play of the Chiefs’ backup QBs. Although they are in a tight competition, neither played well. Still, neither arguably played worse than Arizona’s two quarterbacks competing over the starting job. I look forward to seeing Tanney bank some passes off the uprights for a touchdown in Game 2 of the preseason.

Generally speaking, it was hard to come away with anything but positive vibes after this game. The Chiefs are back with a vengeance this year and they have shown that they can beat you in any number of different ways. Wherever you are weakest, that’s where we will strike, because we have the tools to get you anywhere, anytime.

Charles LeClaire-USPRESSWIRE

Allow me to introduce myself: My name is Dave Thoman, and I know that Jamaal Charles is the best running back the Chiefs have. I could recite his accomplishments and drone on about how I believe he will come back from last year’s injury just fine, but there’s no use in preaching to the choir here. What you may not be ready to hear is that Charles not only fails to carry the title of “most indispensable to the team,” he’s not even the most indispensable at his position; Peyton Hillis’ presence is more important to our success this year.

To avoid being immediately suspended from ever writing again, let me qualify that paragraph by saying I’m not merely judging what a player brings to the table – I’m also evaluating how readily their talents can be replaced. A 1,500 yard season for Charles and 1,000 yard season for Hillis are not unreasonable expectations. But without Hillis, we have no change-of-pace bruiser. Currently on the roster at fullback are Shane Bannon, who spent his rookie year in 2011 on the practice squad, and Taylor Gentry, an undrafted rookie out of North Carolina State. Unless one of these guys exceeds expectations during training camp, there is no reliable replacement to run between the tackles and provide backfield pass protection if Hillis goes down.

Last year Jackie Battle led the team in rushing while Thomas Jones ranked third. They’re never coming back.* Dexter McCluster caught 46 receptions and was second on the team in rushing while averaging 4.5 yards/carry in 2011. McCluster is also 5’8″, 170 lbs. He’s a serviceable substitute for Charles, but not Hillis. He’s an exciting player who may not deliver Pro Bowl talent, but can provide backup if needed to move in from wide receiver. Additionally, with the glut of receivers the Chiefs suddenly find themselves blessed with, moving McCluster back into the backfield wouldn’t be that damaging to the receiving corps – we should still have a solid set of receivers plus Moeaki at TE. Cyrus Gray also intrigues me, and provides about the same size as Charles.

*Editor’s Note: Thank God on Jones.

There is no doubt in my mind that Charles’ contributions will be greater than Hillis’  this year. Yet in the event of some unforeseen event depriving us of this extraordinary backfield duo, I’m gritting my teeth and professing a preference for keeping Hillis. Besides, the Chiefs need a bruiser in January to run out the clock as Peyton Manning watches the time wind down to zero to record our first playoff win in far too long.

So whaddaya think, Addicts, does our roster allow us to be more concerned for the health of Peyton Hillis than Jamaal Charles? Or should I stop writing and just go back to reading Arrowhead Addict from the sidelines?

Well, my fellow KC Chiefs fans, welcome to the football dead zone. The stretch between the NFL Draft and the start of training camp is probably the least exciting time to be a die-hard NFL fan and definitely the hardest time to be an NFL blogger. Yes there are some interesting tidbits coming out of OTAs, but until they actually put pads on and hit somebody, everything is pretty much just speculation.

So what can we do to try and get some good old-fashioned football debates going?

Well how about we play a new game called “Tell me I’m wrong!” It’s easy, I’ll make some predictions that I 100 percent believe about the upcoming season and you tell me when you think I’m wrong. Then I’ll respond to your comment and tell you why you’re wrong for thinking that I’m wrong. It will be great, trust me (hey, it’s the offseason, what else are we going to talk about?).

Ready to play?

Here we go……

1. Stanford Routt will lead KC in interceptions.

I don’t think Routt is a better player than either Brandon Flowers or Eric Berry. However, I do think he will be the most thrown at player in the Chiefs’ secondary. My guess is that Routt may not be as consistent as Brandon Carr was, but he will make more big plays. Carr was a great cover corner but he never was a big interception guy (he averaged just two per season over his four years in KC). I think Routt will probably give up more big plays than Carr did, but will help make up for it by coming up with more big plays. Teams will be tempted to test him both because he may give up an occasional big play and because of Flowers’ great coverage skills opposite him. Plus Routt will be lined up a lot against #2 WRs (as opposed to last season in Oakland when he had to cover the other team’s #1). Because of this, I think Routt will be good for about five interceptions this coming season.

Tell me I’m wrong!

2. Amon Gordon will play more snaps at 3-4 NT this season than either of the “Po(w)e Boys”.

When the Chiefs drafted Dontari Poe with the #11 pick, most national commentators stated that Romeo Crennel would plug Poe in at NT from day one. I haven’t ever believed that to be true. I’m not bashing Poe, or even bashing the pick, just the logic that he would walk right in and be the starting NT. The NT in the Chiefs 3-4 is all about technique and leverage. Those two things happen to be two of Poe’s weakest areas coming out of college. Do I think Romeo and defensive line coach Anthony Pleasant can teach Poe the technique needed to be a starting 3-4 NT? Yes. Will it happen in one offseason? Probably not. Poe has been running with the first team nickel package, but is way down the depth chart at NT (even Anthony Toribio has gotten snaps ahead of him). So that leaves KC with either Gordon or last year’s 6th round pick Jerrell Powe as the starting NT to begin the year. I know fans are enamored of Powe, but the Chiefs have shown no signs thus far that they share that infatuation. Gordon was active over Powe all of last season and when the Chiefs base defense took the field for the first time in OTAs it was Gordon that lined up at NT. In addition, Gordon also has the versatility to play the 3-4 DE spots. So if Dorsey or Jackson were to go down mid-game the Chiefs could slide Gordon over to DE and play Dontari at NT (since he will be active for sub packages). The same could not be said for Powe who hasn’t played at all at DE or in the sub package. I won’t be surprised if Dontari Poe is the starting NT by the end of the season, but I still believe that Amon Gordon will lead the team in snaps played at NT when the season comes to an end.

Tell me I’m wrong!

3. Undrafted FA Josh Bellamy will beat out seventh round draft pick Junior Hemingway for the final WR spot.

I stated before that there really isn’t much that you can take from OTAs other than speculation. I think Josh Bellamy may be an exception. In Romeo’s presser following the undrafted player tryouts, Bellamy was the first player he mentioned when talking about players that got his attention. Then in this OTA update by the Kansas City Star’s Adam Teicher it mentions that with Bowe holding out and Baldwin missing a practice, Bellamy got a few reps with the first string (with no mention of Hemingway). Finally, in this locker room interview, Josh Looney talks about how Bellamy has experience playing defensive back and how that defensive experience helps him to excel on special teams. If Bellamy has flashed more as a WR thus far AND has a leg up on Hemingway on ST (where the last WR will see most of their action) I think Bellamy may be the clear favorite at this point despite the fact that Hemingway was drafted and Bellamy was not.

Tell me I’m wrong!

4. Peyton Hillis will finish the year with 100 more touches than Jamaal Charles.

I love Jamaal Charles. I think he is the most talented player on the team. That having been said, he has a small frame for a NFL running back and is coming off major knee surgery. The Chiefs previously were careful with Charles’ workload and that was before his knee injury. When the season begins, I wouldn’t be surprised if Charles only averaged 8-12 touches per game until the Chiefs start to feel comfortable that he is full strength. If the Chiefs are a run first team that could leave a solid 15-20 touches for Hillis. Plus, Hillis has proven in the past that he is a good receiver out of the back field so the Chiefs don’t have to take him off the field in passing downs. If the Chiefs let an ineffective Thomas Jones have more carries than a healthy Charles; I can’t imagine they wouldn’t let a more effective Hillis carry the load while they slowly bring Charles back. Over the course of 16 games 100 touches would only be an average of 6.25 touches per game.

Tell me I’m wrong!

5. Jonathan Baldwin will play well enough this season that the Chiefs will let Dwayne Bowe walk in free agency next offseason.

Part of the “Patriot Way” has always been knowing when to let a player go. Whether it was cutting Lawyer Milloy, trading Richard Seymour, or releasing Randy Moss, the Patriots have never been afraid to move on. Dwayne Bowe is an incredibly talented player who has always had a bit of a reputation as a “knuckle head.” Bowe may be wanting a huge long-term deal like the one Vincent Jackson signed this offseason, but I just don’t see Pioli giving him that kind of money. Listen to Pioli talk about the scouting process they use on draft picks. He always talks about the players’ “make up” and how they will mentally handle the NFL life and having millions of dollars in their pocket. Ask yourself this, would Pioli have been comfortable drafting Dwayne Bowe out of college based on those criteria? I don’t think he would have. The only way I see him giving Bowe big money is if he thinks he has no choice. Enter Jon Baldwin. Baldwin was a first-round pick by Pioli. He missed time last year on top of having a shortened offseason. Already in OTAs he is getting noticed for highlight-reel, big play catches. If Baldwin can carry that over to the regular season and looks like a #1 caliber WR, that is bad news for those wanting Bowe to stay in KC long term. I’d love to see both Baldwin and Bowe in KC long term, but if KC remains a run-first team they simply don’t need two #1 WRs. I think Jon Baldwin will show himself to be that caliber of player this year and give Pioli the leverage to let Dwayne Bowe walk.

Tell me I’m wrong!

6. Matt Cassel will silence his critics (well, at least some of them) by having his best season in KC.

I already made my case for Matt Cassel in my piece last week. The basis of my argument is this: Every time Cassel has had a good run game and at least an average defense he has put up good results. I think he has a chance to have the best defense of his career this coming year and if Jamaal Charles is healthy then KC could very well lead the league in rushing again. Plus, if you look at Cassel’s WRs in 2010 when he put up good numbers and even made the Pro Bowl (as an alternate), they were horrible after Dwayne Bowe. The additions of Steve Breaston, Jon Baldwin, and even Devon Wylie should mean Cassel has a significantly better core of WRs than he did in 2010. Plus, no one can question Cassel’s work ethic and you know that in the face of all the criticism he’s faced he will do everything possible to prove his critics wrong. I believe everything is lining up for Cassel to have his best season in KC.

Tell me I’m wrong!

So there you go, Addicts, I’ve given you loads of ammo to fuel a good debate in the comments section. Surely one of these made you go, “No Way That Happens!!!!” So let me have it in the comments. I look forward to hearing about how wrong I am.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I should preface this post by saying that I do not reside within the cerebral cortex of Romeo Crennel and Brian Daboll. I do not know that they will do any or all of these things, but I do think that if they don’t at least try some of them, we will have missed some opportunities this coming season.

1.) DeQuan Menzie as MLB.

One of the many sets that Crennel likes to run in pass-defense sub packages is loading up on D-backs and replacing one ILB – Belcher, obviously – with a safety to cover any RBs coming out of the flat or TEs on crossing patterns. Throughout the 2011 season this was almost always McGraw – a veteran with good instincts who is a good tackler and will be read his man well. This is one of the many packages that was great at confusing and disrupting opposing offenses, and led to brilliant defensive victories like the one over the undefeated Packers.

However, it was also exploited at times with teams audibling to a dive play and running a power back straight up at McGraw. While he is normally a good open-field tackler, he got trucked on a couple of those because he just doesn’t have the body mass to make a thud against a big back bursting through the hole. Enter DeQuan Menzie.

John David Mercer-US PRESSWIRE

Menzie comes from the hard-nosed Alabama defense where he often played close to the line. While he’s not huge, he is on the heavy side for a safety, and showed on tape that he could power through wide receiver blocks and would likely do well as both a mean guy following RBs and TEs in the short passing game, and also standing tall against backs plowing through the hole. The case has been made that Eric Berry would be good in that role, but I think he is greatest as an asset to us on passing downs with his ability to take over center field and play the deep ball.

2.) Three-headed RB Monster: Jamaal Charles-Peyton Hillis-Dexter McCluster

With the Chiefs’ top three RBs, they have three very different and complementary ball-carriers. Charles has the speed and vision to break big ones anytime. Hillis is a pounder who can get away from you if he gets a bit of space, and McCluster has the spark to hit the hole fast and can make things happen in the open field. Having all three of these guys on the field simply presents too many plays to contemplate.

US PRESSWIRE

If Daboll fields Charles, Hillis, McCluster, Moeaki and Boss, what package will the defense put out there? The fact is that there is no right answer because with those guys, you could do some power running with Hillis as a lead blocker for Charles/McCluster or you could do also sorts of sophisticated pitches, reverses and screens. Or, you could motion a TE out wide and throw from it. It’s hard to imagine a better goal-line set; the Chiefs will inevitably find favorable matchups. Daboll has made a name for himself being a mad scientist in drawing up plays. I have a feeling he is going to have fun with these guys.

3.) Splitting Hillis out wide

As I mentioned in my feature on Hillis a few weeks back, I noted he is really much more than the plodding pounder he is reputed to be. In fact, he is a great pass-catcher:

His one drop among 61 catches in 2010 made him the third most consistent receiving RB in the league. Most importantly for QB Matt “Panic Toss” Cassel, Hillis hauled in 90 percent of all passes thrown at him in 2010 – on target or not. Then, he had 453 yards after the catch.

Granted, Daboll was often using Hillis as a wideout primarily because Cleveland had/has quite possibly the worst wide-receiving corps in the league. Still, this guy has hands, great body control, good ups and holds on to the ball. Watch 2:10 of these highlights for this amazing catch from 2010 against the Falcons – it’s reminiscent of Moeaki’s stunning grab against the 49ers that year (he’s got another great one at 2:55). Heck, it might even be interesting to see him lined up at TE, despite the fact we already have two good ends.

4.) Poe at DE, in coverage

While we still don’t totally know what we are going to get out of Poe at this point, we do know that Crennel is going to move him around. Initially billed as a run-stuffer, Crennel has been trying to coach him up as a pass rusher. If he develops as both, I think the Chiefs will want to move him to whatever part of the opposing offensive line is the weakest. If that team has a Barry Richardson on their starting roster, we will find him and put a monster of a man right on top of him. Also, given Poe’s ability to crash down and take out blockers, he could be a great lead-man for an unbalanced blitz. Let him cut down his double team on one of the edges as Houston, Hali and DJ rush through to get at the QB.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Another thing that Crennel was successful with in New England was getting Vince Wilfork to step back in to zone coverage every now and then. It sounds crazy – and it is – but opposing offenses never see it coming. Heck, Wilfork even had two interceptions last year. While I don’t expect Poe to be a ball hawk or to be able to cover Gronkowski man-to-man or any silliness like that, using him this way would still have some major benefits. 1.) Having him step off suddenly puts the opposing offensive line in disarray up the middle in a way that can be exploited as they figure out whom to shift to and block. 2.) If you’re worried about a speedy TE being able to pick up too much speed off the line and want to slow him down has he crosses through the middle, Poe putting his 349-pound shoulder into him will sure accomplish that.

So in addition to being a wannabe sports writer, I also occasionally dabble in Chiefs highlight videos. No one will ever mistake one of mine for the work of Red Tribe Cinema, but that’s okay. You can check out my Arrowhead Addict video HERE and my Eric Berry injury tribute HERE.

Today, I’ve taken on the Chiefs 2012 offense. Enjoy!

Like many of you, I was very skeptical when the Chiefs signed RB Peyton Hillis this March to a one-year, $3-million deal. It seemed like he was a pure power back who stood out on a Cleveland team bereft of any real talent and had just come off of an injury-riddled season full of off-the-field problems. He seemed like damaged goods we got off the bargain rack as an insurance policy on Charles, despite the fact he was just as likely of getting re-injured as the guy he was backing up.

I still have some of those doubts, but I finally got around to scouting Hillis a bit. Despite being on the cover of Madden (and taking the famed curse on the nose), playing for the Browns is like being in witness protection. I generally recollected that he was good, but he sounded a lot like Thomas Jones to me.

What I discovered is, first of all, no one was quite as bad as Jones last year. Literally. Jones ranked dead friggin’ last out of 56 running backs in Pro Football Focus’s Elusive Rating, which tracks how well a back does after first contact. Hillis also generally disappointed by that measure last year, but that likely came as a result of being the entire Browns offense in 2010. He played 90 percent of the team’s offensive snaps and was serving as a pass protector even when not getting the ball (Charles was only on the field for 53 percent of the snaps).

At the end of 2010, Brian Daboll left as the offensive coordinator and Hillis got the injury bug, plus he was likely in need of some extra recovery time after being run lame for a season and he took a big step back. So, I decided to put my NFL GamePass account to good use and watched the last game in the 2011 season when Hillis had more than 12 carries – Week 15 against Arizona. I figured this would also be a good game because the Cardinals have a stout defensive front and it would be a good setting to see how he did without counting on his O-line dominating.

I must say, I came away quite impressed. First, I think it is a great misperception that he is just a pounder. He has speed.

In his first two touches of the game he fired through the hole like a gazelle bolting from captivity for gains of 18 and 12. One would think that the biggest running back in the league (6’2”, 250 lbs) would be best when shoving through contact, but actually Hillis truly excels in the open field – so much so that they even split him out wide as a WR on several plays. He’s obviously not very shifty, but if you get him behind the ‘backers, there is simply no one who can take him down. DBs have to try to get low on him to have a prayer of tackling him, and if you watch his highlight reel, you see that he has made an art out of hurdling little guys.

Also, whatever personality issues made him clash with coaches off the field were totally absent from his demeanor on the field. He showed himself to be a fiery competitor and took responsibility for a (literal) slip-up. On a play where he was able to break outside with largely open field ahead, he tried to make a cut with his inside foot and ended up going down without contact. Immediately after the play, the cameras caught him saying to the OC “My fault, it was my fault on that one.”

I’m extremely excited to see what Daboll will do with him. Although I do think some of the things they were doing with him like splitting him out wide were largely gimmicks to mess with the defense and mask the Browns’ dreadful wide receiving corps, I do think he could get great matchups against CBs. While he may not burn them down field, he has the height and body size to fight for position on intermediate routes, and if he gets any separation he will be able to plow through a few guys in the defensive backfield.

He also has great hands for a running back. His one drop among 61 catches in 2010 made him the third most consistent receiving RB in the league. Most importantly for QB Matt “Panic Toss” Cassel, Hillis hauled in 90 percent of all passes thrown at him in 2010 – on target or not. Then, he had 453 yards after the catch.

The big question is how often the Chiefs are going to give him the ball. KC fans were rightfully outraged at the fact Jones got considerably more touches than Charles in 2010, but Hillis is not Jones.

According to an ESPN Insider article (which I, like Paddy, would not recommend you pay for), “the Chiefs likely will lean heavily on Hillis early during the 2012 season while Charles gets his legs under him.”

Pro Fantasy Focus predicts, “with the Chiefs not wanting to overwork Charles, and now not needing to, I’d expect there to be a similar split in the backfield as 2010 between Charles and Thomas Jones. I’m penciling in Hillis for 240 carries for 1013 yards, 35 receptions for 256 yards, and 8 touchdowns, while giving Charles 200 carries for 1149 yards, 40 receptions for 296 yards, and 6 touchdowns.”

I think that might be a bit excessive, but after watching Hillis run, I am convinced he is much better than a short-yardage, third-down back. I think the ratio of carries Hillis and Charles receive will likely depend on the opponent and the weaknesses the Chiefs want to exploit in the opposing defense. When we face teams with heavy-footed, run-stuffing linebackers, we can let Charles dance around them or burn by them. If we’re up against a finesse team with coverage linebackers, we can let Hillis run them over.

Earlier the conversation had been about getting appropriate depth for Charles should he go down again, but I think the Chiefs may have actually gotten what they hoped they would get by picking up Thomas Jones in 2010 – a genuine two-headed monster.

And, since the offense will once again be going through the run again, I think it is very likely that Hillis could end up becoming the free-agent signing – not only of the Chiefs’ offseason – but of the League, if both stay healthy.

Note: For Internal Use Only. Coaches, players and fans of the Raiders, Chargers and Broncos are not authorized to read this post.

It’s that time of the year. The Draft and free agency have passed and we all feel like we have the best team in the league.  In fact, everyone feels like they have the best team in the league. The only problem is that 31 of them are wrong and we’re probably one of them.

Thus, it has come time for me to assume the role I have carved out on this site and that is being the Debbie Downer. We still have holes and weaknesses. Talented coordinators are going to be able to target those weaknesses and we need to be thinking about how to mask them.

If I am an opposing coach, this is how I plan my game:

Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

1.) Defend RB Jamaal Charles. How? By keeping him out of the end zone. Provided he is back to his old self, he’s almost certainly going to rack up 100+ yards on us. Let him; just don’t let the safeties get beat. Pay the mascot another bounty for taking him out (Just kidding, they’ll be watching this time).

2.) Throw deep. Now, this may seem like a strange prescription given that the Chiefs have one of the best secondaries in the league. However, it makes sense for several reasons.

First off, S Eric Berry and CB Brandon Flowers are scary, scary men when healthy, but there are other bits of the pass defense that are vulnerable. S Kendrick Lewis is a smart ball hawk, but he doesn’t have the wheels to keep up with speedy receivers streaking downfield. Routt is known to willingly take a holding or interference call if he feels like he is losing the wideout, rather than risk give up a touchdown. Send our best track star on a sprint down field a few times per game just to see what happens. Depending on the coverage, we can fake Berry off to the other side, we may get lucky with a blitzing DB, or our guy might just be able to outrun his man. There’s also a good chance we can scare Routt into eating an erroneous penalty. We’ll also probably get favorable matchups with our tight ends against their linebackers and safeties.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Secondly, as we saw last year, all of the Chiefs’ explosive plays comes from two guys –Charles and WR Dwayne Bowe. There is simply no one else on the team who generates big plays with any consistency. While each of those two is guaranteed to have a couple of good-gainers on us, limiting their ability to score will keep the Chiefs off the board. KC was 31^st in scoring last year and 14^th in the league in 2010 when they had all their stars healthy. As long as the game stays close, we will be able to make big plays on them, and it’s likely they won’t be able to keep up. They counted on the ability to run at will and chew clock in 2010. If we can get a couple of quick, easy touchdowns on them, they won’t be able to use that to their advantage.

3.) Stand tall on first and third down. Jamaal Charles is at his best on first down –108 of his 230 carries (47 percent) were on first for 7.2 yards-per-carry (YPC) in 2010. But, he only averaged 5.2 YPC up the middle. Let him have it. On early downs, keep our backers and ends out in contain on the edges. If we can do that, we can force them into lots of third-down situations. In 2010, the Chiefs were 20^th in the league in converting on third down, 27^th in 2011. Watch out for RB Peyton Hillis on third.

4.) Play smart, the Chiefs likely won’t. In 2010, KC was the 12^th most penalized team in the league. In 2011, they were 9^th, and they just added a couple of Raiders. They are a very young team, and when they are frustrated, they will gift you yards. Let’s not be so generous.

5.) Win in the beginning. Both Hillis and Charles put up their best numbers in the first quarter. As long as they are just tallying up yardage while we are tallying up points with a few big plays, we can live with that. Matt Cassel had a passer rating of 52.3 in the fourth quarter of games that were decided by seven points or less. He’s not much better in overtime. If we are still leading going into the fourth, we have to feel good about our chances of winning.

So, Addicts, that’s how opposing teams will be looking at us. What do we do to counter?

The other title I considered was ”Chiefs finally get first-round quarterback” with a picture of Brady Quinn. In the end, I went with the more obvious joke. 

I think we can all agree this is the most exciting free agency of Chiefs GM Scott Pioli’s tenure. Granted, that isn’t saying much, but by any standard this early flurry has been noteworthy. I’ll get to what I think of each move later. Let’s start with the big picture.

Pioli, once again, has switched up his game. His first year he went “bad ‘n boring” in both draft and free agency. In year two his drafting, at least, improved, but I still thought I had him pegged. It was those team captains he was after, and ever would be, thought I. Then the next year he picked Justin Houston and Jon Baldwin, and I had to admit that when it came to the draft, Pioli was actually a bit of a wild card.

His free agent strategy, though, had always remained the same. Set modest goals, avoid top players. An almost exact continuation of the Herm Edwards strategy, oddly enough.

The Chiefs weren’t shy about it, either. About the only thing Pioli didn’t keep secret was his distaste for free-agent spending sprees. That wasn’t the way he did things, wasn’t part of The Patriot Way. He was too smart for that. He was building through the Draft. Drafting and aggressive free agent moves were mutually exclusive, apparently. So the cap room sat there, for three years.

Now here we are discussing a successful Pioli foray into the free agent feeding frenzy. I’ll admit it, Addicts, I never thought I’d see the day. All the “build through the draft” parakeets crowing about free agent signings. It’s a beautiful thing.

What’s really interesting about these moves, though, is that I am now faced with quite the logic-dilemma. I’ve been saying since Pioli got here that he needed to be more active in free agency, and that you could spend big and still spend smart. I’ve also said that when it came down to it, I didn’t think he had the chops to get it done when competing with other teams for players. With one huge signing, Pioli has proven me both wrong and right. Wrong about him, right about free agency.

(more…)

Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Per multiple reports, the Kansas City Chiefs have signed free agent running back Peyton Hillis, formerly of the Cleveland Browns.

Hillis had a rather rocky season in 2011 after coming off a career year in 2010 when current Chiefs offensive coordinator Brian Daboll held the same position in Cleveland.

Hillis is a very tough, straight-ahead runner that can also contribute out of the backfield in the passing game. He will pair with Pro Bowler Jamaal Charles, possibly giving Kansas City one of the strongest running back tandems in the NFL.

This is the first signing the Chiefs have made since the start of free agency. They have also added CB Stanford Routt.

Adam Schefter of ESPN is reporting that the Chiefs signed Hillis for one-year at $3 million. I like that contract. If Hillis acts up, the Chiefs can be easily rid of him. If things work out, they can extend him.

There is no word on if the Chiefs are still interested in RB Mike Tolbert.

Eric P. Mull-US PRESSWIRE

According to Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, free agent RB Peyton Hillis is scheduled to visit the Kansas City Chiefs.

This is an exciting move.

Hillis could potentially sign a short-term deal with a team as he hopes to wash away some of the bad press he’s gotten in Cleveland over the last year.

Hillis is a good fit for the Chiefs. He’s a hard runner who can also catch the ball out of the backfield. He’d add a nice power aspect to the KC running game and would be a nice compliment to Jamaal Charles.

With no KC game today, Chiefs fans should become Browns fans for a day.

Other than the weeks and months between the end of the Super Bowl and the beginning of the preseason (with the exception of free agency and the draft of course) this is my least favorite week to be a Kansas City Chiefs fan.

The dreaded “Bye Week.”

Ugh. Who would have ever though that this would be a good idea? In 1990, the NFL introduced these monstrosities for reasons still unknown. Thankfully, we still have other football to watch.

So how can you get through the “Bye Week Blues?” I suggest, for today anyway, becoming a Cleveland Browns Fan.

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Fans of the Cleveland Browns have something to cheer about as RB Peyton Hillis has defeated Michael Vick in the voting to grace the cover of Madden NFL 12.

Browns fans absolutely love Hillis and for good reason.

Chiefs fans remember Hillis from his brief stay as a member of the Denver Broncos. A couple of years ago, the Broncos went through a number of injuries at the HB position. They eventually got to Hillis and the young RB had a couple of really fantastic games before injuring himself in a game against the Chiefs. Hillis looked really good in that game and I remember being relieved when he got hurt and left the action.

At the end of the season, Broncos coach Mike Shannahan was canned and Josh McDaniels was brought in. McDaniels ignored Hillis for an entire season which I found strange seeing as how much promise I thought he had shown the year before. McDaniels then traded Hillis to Cleveland for Brady Quinn.

Oops.

Guess that is why McDaniels got fired and Hillis is now a star. Congrats to Hillis. Well deserved.

Maybe it was meant to be.

Peyton Hillis pulled off a shocking upset over Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers, defeating him 61%-39%. The Browns RB will take on former Madden 12 cover athlete Mike Vick, who defeated Adrian Peterson 59%-41%.

It stinks he knocked off Charles and I think Jamaal is the better back but I am rooting for Hillis all the way now. I thought Rodgers deserved to be on the cover but I have to hand it to Browns Nation, they have shown up in a big way for Hillis.

The city of Cleveland has had a rough go of it for a while now. They’ve had major heartbreak with all of their pro teams over the years, with the most recent humiliation being LeBron James’ classless dumping of the city on national television.

I grew up just outside of Cleveland the folks over there love their Browns and they’ve been seeking for someone to root for. Looks to me like Hillis is that guy. I think it’s a great story so I’m on team Hillis.

Who do you guys think should be on the cover? Vote here.

Kansas City Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles needs the help of Chiefs Nation if he wants to continue his dream of being on the cover of Madden NFL 12.

Charles, who defeated Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew in the last round of voting, is one of only eight players left in the competition.

Some fans are worried about the so called “Madden Curse” but we here at AA have decided to promote Charles in this endeavor. Charles has made it clear via Twitter that he really wants to be on the cover of Madden and if that is what he wants, we are going to help.

Right now Hillis is beating Charles by a 58/42 split. That means Charles fans need to get over to ESPN.com and start voting for Jamaal.

Remember you can vote as many times as you like by simply deleting your browser history and reloading the page. Jamaal needs to catch up so throw some extra votes his way today!